#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futures
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Strong consecutive bull bars in a trading range but still a lower high. Once bulls break above 2406, market is free to go back above 2440 but I wait for confirmation. Bears not having good arguments here for reversing this. Only a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema would raise the odds for the bears.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again.
On the weekly and monthly tf market is having huge tails above the bars and market has not closed a monthly bar above 2350. After this retest of 2460/2500, I expect a deeper pullback to the low of this current bull wedge/channel 2250 and likely even deeper over the next 6-12 months down to the big bull trend line starting 2018, which would be around 2000.
current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480
key levels: 2300 - 2480
bull case: Bulls are right below the previous high at 2406 and the move up is strong enough to give the odds here to the bulls. Market tried repeatedly to break below 2300 and could not do it, so bears giving up here and want to short higher for better value. Measured move from Thu/Fri would bring us exactly to 2465. Another reason for this up move is the weekly 20ema which is at 2310 and we missed it by a couple of points.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Bears failed 3 times at 2300 over the past 4 weeks and now want higher prices for better shorts, which means they are mostly giving up. They know that we are in a trading range for 3 months and the r:r for shorts above 2460 is much better than for the bulls. Bears need to keep the monthly closes below 2350 or risk attracting more bulls buying high.
Invalidation is above 2510.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 2339 and now we are at 2397. Perfect outlook.
short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged
current swing trade: Will go long above 2407 and look for shorts above 2460.
Chart update: Removed bear trend lines.
tl;dr
gold: Strong consecutive bull bars in a trading range but still a lower high. Once bulls break above 2406, market is free to go back above 2440 but I wait for confirmation. Bears not having good arguments here for reversing this. Only a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema would raise the odds for the bears.
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls keeping it above support but can not print consecutive daily closes above the daily 20ema. Will probably see a breakout over the next 1-2 weeks.
comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again.
On the weekly and monthly tf market is having huge tails above the bars and market has not closed a monthly bar above 2350. After this retest of 2460/2500, I expect a deeper pullback to the low of this current bull wedge/channel 2250 and likely even deeper over the next 6-12 months down to the big bull trend line starting 2018, which would be around 2000.
current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480
key levels: 2300 - 2480
bull case: Bulls are right below the previous high at 2406 and the move up is strong enough to give the odds here to the bulls. Market tried repeatedly to break below 2300 and could not do it, so bears giving up here and want to short higher for better value. Measured move from Thu/Fri would bring us exactly to 2465. Another reason for this up move is the weekly 20ema which is at 2310 and we missed it by a couple of points.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Bears failed 3 times at 2300 over the past 4 weeks and now want higher prices for better shorts, which means they are mostly giving up. They know that we are in a trading range for 3 months and the r:r for shorts above 2460 is much better than for the bulls. Bears need to keep the monthly closes below 2350 or risk attracting more bulls buying high.
Invalidation is above 2510.
outlook last week:
“short term: Neutral. Play the triangle.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2339 and now we are at 2397. Perfect outlook.
short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged
current swing trade: Will go long above 2407 and look for shorts above 2460.
Chart update: Removed bear trend lines.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.