Natural Gas Probes Support. Is One More Feb '24 Bounce Possible?
The US Natural Gas Fun (UNG) paces for its third-worst single-session performance in the ETF's 17-year history as of this writing. Tuesday afternoon weather model runs did the prompt-month of natural gas no favors, and the February contract has plunged all the way back under $3 after poking above $3.30 late last week. The current record-shattering polar snap will prove to be short-lived for the CONUS. A mild forecast in both the NOAA 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks are bearish for the energy-dependent commodity.
This is the most volatile time of the year for nat gas, and the infamous “widowmaker” trade (the March/April spread) looms. For now, though, I see support on the chart in a broad range. Notice in my featured chart this week that $2.80 to $3.00 has historically been a battleground between the bulls and bears. What’s more, natty is now testing its 38.2% retracement from the December low to the January high, offering potential support.
The trade here, in my view, is long with a stop under $2.80 on the prompt month. We will have a contract roll later this month to the much cheaper March contract (currently about 45 cents less expensive than Feb). So, we will get a natural gap down once the roll takes place. Thus, the duration of this idea is through January 26.
This is the most volatile time of the year for nat gas, and the infamous “widowmaker” trade (the March/April spread) looms. For now, though, I see support on the chart in a broad range. Notice in my featured chart this week that $2.80 to $3.00 has historically been a battleground between the bulls and bears. What’s more, natty is now testing its 38.2% retracement from the December low to the January high, offering potential support.
The trade here, in my view, is long with a stop under $2.80 on the prompt month. We will have a contract roll later this month to the much cheaper March contract (currently about 45 cents less expensive than Feb). So, we will get a natural gap down once the roll takes place. Thus, the duration of this idea is through January 26.
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