Decoding NIFTY

Dear Traders,

I hope this message finds you well in your trading endeavours and personal pursuits. I am excited to share a compelling opportunity with you through a new NIFTY analysis that sheds light on the continuation of the market shift.

Preliminary Analysis Overview:

The downtrend from all-time highs has reached approximately 65% of its progression.
The recent upward surge is somewhat concerning due to concerns about a new trend or a correction within a correction in a larger degree (downtrend).

Let us discuss the key points to distinguish between these two scenarios:

The second leg of the downtrend is experiencing a correction, having completed approximately 89/90 days (which reinforces the interim trend’s completion).
The current correction is progressing rapidly, exhibiting limited sub-waves, which is typically not a characteristic of a motive wave (especially at the beginning of a trend).
The accompanying chart illustrates this point.



Let us elucidate the reasons behind this assertion:

Reason I:

As a staunch believer and ardent follower of Master WDG, the significance of time cannot be disregarded.

• The primary downtrend commenced on September 27, 2024, and is poised to encounter a pivotal juncture, namely 180 days from its commencement on March 25, 2025 (Tuesday). This date also coincides with a cross-over with the Fibonacci value of 21 from March 4, 2025, where the interim correction commenced (21,964.60).
  

• The 180D is a component of both the tetragram and the hexagram, and it also represents the midway point of a complete circle (360).
  

• There is also another weird correlation, 4th MAR’25 & 25th MAR’25 both falls on Tuesday marking initiation & termination, the same day.
  

Reason II:

The geometric patterns of preceding and ongoing movements further support this analysis.
Analyzed both on a daily and weekly basis. The correction responded favorably to both Fibonacci retracements and trendlines. Upcoming resistance levels include:

RI: 23,590~23,600
RII:23,653 (23.6% of the downtrend)
RIII: 23,807

The previous support level is acting as a crucial resistance.

I also observe that there will not be a positive close in 3M charts.

Reference:



Important Dates to Remember:

As suggested, March 25, 2025, marks a significant juncture in the overall trend.
This is pure technical based analysis & does not involve any economic data releases other factors.

** Final Verdict: **

The market is anticipated to conclude its final leg of the downtrend, commencing from this Tuesday. However, the duration of this leg can range from 1 to 2 months.

I have identified several crucial dates for monitoring the upcoming trend. Stay informed!

**Strategy:**

Given the prevailing market conditions, adopting a bearish stance appears prudent.
Any sell positions executed after 23,550 will yield positive returns.

While it may seem counterintuitive to deviate from the prevailing trend, I am merely adhering to the established rules (without expressing any personal sentiment). However, it is inherently risky. Therefore, it is imperative to implement robust risk management strategies during such high-risk trades that are significantly influencing the market.

Additionally, please exercise caution regarding option buying. The low volatility environment is concerning, but it is anticipated to normalize as the downtrend progresses.


Fellow Traders,

The creation of this valuable analytical resource has required countless hours of dedication and effort. If you find it useful, I humbly request your support by boosting the idea and following me (updates will be provided via this post, new posts, and through minds). Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally.

Thank you for investing your time in reading this article.

Wishing you profitable and fulfilling trading endeavors!

Disclaimer:

Before concluding, I must emphasize that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is crucial for you to conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial objectives and risk tolerance.

Trade active

FOMO traders can make their entry here around 23,600 ~ 23,650 or can wait till tomorrow.

Note

As far as stops are concerned,

1. Time based - As of EOD 31st MAR'25, the monthly closing should be less than 23,637.65 (for a -ve 3M close)

2. Price based - Trader's discretion. However(i prefer 24K, i.e any close beyond the 3rd extension of a trendline).

However, we can be sure about it in the meantime,
1. Today, the time resistance should work &
2. When market turns around it should not be a retracement.

Note

Considerable break below 23,650 bolsters the idea!

Note

[IMPORTANT]
I've recently analysed the correction from 19 OCT'21 - 17 JUN'22 that is proposed to have similar characteristics to the ongoing correction. Based on that, the internal correction is mostly non-responsive to FIBO & even crossed .786 R before resuming the trend & the alternation can be seen perfectly.

All that being said, if there is an alternation, the current upward trend may get extended,
Either - time based - 2 more days of dryness in volatility & 1 day of rally taking out 23,869
or Price based - 1 Up, 2 Down & 3 Up

Given this possibility, i would strongly suggest to wait for the entry, below 23,600 - 23.6% S(of high confidence).

If position is opened, conservative traders may exit with minimal loss & wait for entry.