NIFTY : Trading Plan and Levels for 17-Dec-2024

4 days ago

🔹 Previous Day's Plan vs Actual (16-Dec-2024):
In yesterday's plan, we identified the No Trade Zone near 24,696-24,750 and the Opening Resistance at 24,830, expecting sideways movement if prices hovered in this range. As seen in the chart, the price respected the No Trade Zone, consolidating before a pullback. The Opening Intraday Support at 24,526 provided a critical holding point, and prices staged a rebound.

Today's plan will analyze multiple opening scenarios, key levels, and likely trends, helping traders prepare for action.

🔹 Nifty 50 Trading Plan for 17-Dec-2024:

1. Scenario 1: Gap Up Opening (100+ points)
   
   If Nifty opens above 24,750 (No Trade Zone), the next critical resistance is at 24,830 (Opening Resistance). Sustaining above this level on an hourly candle close can trigger sharp short-covering, leading the index toward 25,041 (Profit Booking Resistance for 25,630).
   
   🔹 Plan of Action:
   
   Wait for the first 15-30 minutes to observe if the gap up sustains.
   Enter long positions above 24,830 only if prices hold for an hourly close.
   Immediate stop loss can be placed just below 24,750 for risk control.
   🔹 Bullish Continuation Target:
   
   Immediate Target: 25,041.
   🔹 Risk Management:
   
   For options traders, consider ATM or slightly ITM CE options to manage premium decay.
   
   Avoid chasing the opening; let a pullback confirm strength.
   
   
2. Scenario 2: Flat Opening (near 24,648-24,696)
   
   If Nifty opens flat, the No Trade Zone at 24,696-24,750 will play a critical role. This zone might act as a sideways region (Yellow Trend) if prices struggle to break out.
   
   🔹 Plan of Action:
   
   Stay cautious inside the No Trade Zone as there may be choppy moves.
   A breakout above 24,750 or a breakdown below 24,526 will signal the direction.
   Go long above 24,750 with a stop loss below 24,696.
   Go short below 24,526, targeting 24,484 and lower levels.
   🔹 Bullish or Bearish Confirmation:
   
   Bullish breakout: Above 24,750.
   Bearish breakdown: Below 24,526.
   🔹 Risk Management:
   
   Use defined stop losses, and avoid overleveraging positions.
   
   For options, consider buying spreads to reduce premium risk.
   
   
3. Scenario 3: Gap Down Opening (100+ points)
   
   If Nifty opens near or below 24,526 (Opening Intraday Support), the 24,484 and 24,309 levels will act as crucial supports.
   
   🔹 Plan of Action:
   
   Observe price action at 24,526. If support holds, expect a bounce back toward 24,696.
   If 24,526 breaks, initiate short positions targeting 24,484 and 24,309.
   If prices drop below 24,309 (Last Intraday Support), it could lead to a sharp decline (Red Trend).
   🔹 Key Levels for Shorts:
   
   Immediate Targets: 24,484 → 24,309.
   🔹 Risk Management:
   
   Manage trades with strict stop loss above 24,526 for shorts.
   
   For options traders, consider buying OTM PE options for risk-limited trades.
   
   

🔹 Risk Management Tips for Options Traders:

Avoid holding positions overnight in volatile market conditions.
Use defined stop losses and trail profits to protect gains.
Prefer spreads (CE/PE spreads) instead of naked buying to manage risk and decay.
Wait for hourly candle closes at critical levels for better confirmation.
🔹 Summary & Conclusion:

Above 24,750, expect bullish continuation towards 25,041.
Flat opening inside the No Trade Zone requires caution; wait for breakout/breakdown.
Below 24,526, bears can take control, with levels 24,484 and 24,309 acting as key supports.
Watch price action near support/resistance and avoid random entries.

🔹 Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Traders are advised to conduct their research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.