NVDA: The ultimate bubble stock?
If there is ever a sign that there has been NO capitulation in this stock market, 
NVDA has to be it because we still have uninformed reckless BTFD behaviour. Last night post-earnings price action was a case-in-point. Consider this, between Jan 2019 to Feb 2023, the stock has gone up c.8x while eps remains approximately the same at $1.76 for FY ending Jan 2023 vs. $1.70 for FY19.
Yesterday, punters pushed the stock +14% to rewardNVDA for achieving 0.2% yoy revenue growth, a 1/3 drop in EBITDA margin from c.45% to c.29%, eps declining c.37% yoy. The end result is NVDA current shareholders pay c.3% over US 10-yr risk-free rate for the right to own this stock and get 0% free-cash-flow yield on c.81x EV-to-T12M EBITDA valuations.
Yes, AI is the future,NVDA mentioned it 75x in its earnings call, but the numbers don't lie. In the meantime, after the +14% pop, price action is now at a 1.27x extension into a 0.618x retracement level with a key price volume resistance level and overbought MACD. The posVol indicator in the lower pane basically measures % volume traded in the past month that can be attributed to green days and yes, it is gone over the edge and is mean reverting.
Good luck to those who dared, best of luck to those with patience, as usual, stay safe and happy hunting!
NVDA has to be it because we still have uninformed reckless BTFD behaviour. Last night post-earnings price action was a case-in-point. Consider this, between Jan 2019 to Feb 2023, the stock has gone up c.8x while eps remains approximately the same at $1.76 for FY ending Jan 2023 vs. $1.70 for FY19.Yesterday, punters pushed the stock +14% to reward
NVDA for achieving 0.2% yoy revenue growth, a 1/3 drop in EBITDA margin from c.45% to c.29%, eps declining c.37% yoy. The end result is NVDA current shareholders pay c.3% over US 10-yr risk-free rate for the right to own this stock and get 0% free-cash-flow yield on c.81x EV-to-T12M EBITDA valuations. Yes, AI is the future,
NVDA mentioned it 75x in its earnings call, but the numbers don't lie. In the meantime, after the +14% pop, price action is now at a 1.27x extension into a 0.618x retracement level with a key price volume resistance level and overbought MACD. The posVol indicator in the lower pane basically measures % volume traded in the past month that can be attributed to green days and yes, it is gone over the edge and is mean reverting. Good luck to those who dared, best of luck to those with patience, as usual, stay safe and happy hunting!
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