KIWI or YEN? (Nzdjpy) Trade Setup

Sep 22, 2019

As for now such strong bearish sentiment price broken all s1.2.3 weekly of Pvt point in my 2hrs chart and floating below Pvt point of weekly + monthly (blue line respectively) is a total indication of bearish sentiment. When price reaches and holds around 66.702 (may have chances as knowing this strong bearish sentiment market) which was an older strong support zone ( AOI ) then we have either short or long opportunity from that level.

Those who have a bear bias on this pair we have to figure out if coming week RBNZ decides to further ease its monetary policy then Nzdjpy may have chances to break through the Support zone ( AOI ) 66.702 which may bring sell opportunity.

For bull bias on the pair, we should be careful if RBNZ wishes to stay unchanged (which consensus indicates us) and the actual is no future cut as the forecast then bounce from this support zone ( AOI ) 66.702 which may bring buy opportunity.

Thinks to keep in mind:

It's my opinion everything depends on the risk sentiment news releases concerned to yen and kiwi throughout the weekdays. Most of the RBNZ interest rate has already been priced in but we have to stay alert around 24-26 sep so we may see some opportunity around those sensitive periods of time for this pair. Also, be careful we have the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes of japan on the same day so Kuroda speech may also add up unusual yen momentum and annual inflation (it did matter if) we should figure out if it affects the pair price action or not and protect ourself if any.

Sep 23, 2019

Note

Turned out, a 3.1% annualized increase in imports and a 5.8% decline in exports added up to a 685M NZD trade deficit for the month and dragged the economy’s twelve-month deficit from 4.5B NZD to 5.46B NZD.

Analysts don’t see improved numbers in August either, as they expect trade deficit to widen to 1.35B NZD for the month

Sep 23, 2019

Note

The deteriorating global outlook and how that filtered through to domestic business confidence were the main considerations for any further easing, Hawkesby said. He said the central bank hoped that a large reduction now would help it avoid another cut, but added that further easing was still a possibility and the bank was also “completely open” to using negative interest rates or other unconventional tools if necessary. (Old words from NZ central bank assistant governor but things to keep in mind )

Sep 24, 2019

Note

Westpac have set out a number of scenarios and probabilities they assign:

Our hawkish scenario
20% chance
characterised by a statement bereft of any hint of further easing
NZD/USD up 1c.

Our dovish scenario
a 10% chance
a 25bp cut
Markets would be very surprise
NZD/USD would fall 1.5c

Neutral scenario
70% chance
easing bias

Sep 24, 2019

Note

Author: Eamonn Sheridan.

Sep 24, 2019

Note

Kiwi last night made double bottom around my weekly s1 which was the same level of my beyond the middle pivot level which you guys can see the first pivot levels of weekly (orange one is weekly and the black is monthly). You can see on below picture and I better like to call this minor support zone which was formed right above the main support zone which we had talked before in our idea and at the same s1 of this week pivot level which nearly aligns with the first weekly pivot level s1 ( I have clearly made a minor support zone around those two s1)

Sep 24, 2019

Note

I zoom here now and the double bottom which I was talking about. The thing is not only about the double bottom here for price to have bounce but also that when retail traders took this minor support level as their last resort for sell and to not continue the furthur risk on sell. I assume that we all know these pair had been in bearish trend strongly from Sep 12 and also last week market was total bearish and the correction was bound to happen at some point. We did saw the retracement finally again when traders found their spot to buy not from the main support zone (AOI) but the minor support zone from last night.

Sep 24, 2019

Note

The bounce from the last night was supported furthermore today when! dadadadadaannng! When today report concern to Westpac Banking Corporation, commonly known as Westpac, an Australian bank and financial services, provider set out a number of scenarios and probabilities for tomorrow rate decision of RBNZ which I commented earlier above that they had Neutral scenario 70% (unchanged bias) chance which was enough to further support for those bull parties who were betting the farm from last night on that forecast of Sep 25 rate decision to be actual by pricing in from minor support zone (which was not the actual level from where our idea expected price to bounce from but the main support zone were never reached by price as bear were so exhausted already last night that buyer was foaming mouth to buy and eventually killed all seller and the minor support zone ended up being the new area of interest from where traders where happy to bet to price in the non-dovish consensus of RBNZ)

Sep 25, 2019

Note

The NZD was the strongest currency at that moment when RBNZ was perceived to be more hawkish than the market was expecting by saying that they would cut rates 'if necessary'. When the forecast was actual on RBNZ Interest Rate Decision before that 15min earlier a bullish candle engulfed totally the previous bearish candle but the price later made a huge spike upward when seller pushed back down the price as they didn't accept the price to go beyond or close above my monthly SMA (Red).