PANW Idea

Mar 7

There was some hype about this stock after the news of Nancy Pelosi getting in on the action in the options market after the infamous slam dunk on the NVDIA stock, so I decided to russell up a little exotic background for the future that might come. As you can see I don't envision a highly bullish path for this one on the longer run, it could get bumpy, but this is good news, as swings can be traded with the right pivots. Considering the background and the hype, it is possible that after any drop, the herd will dive in hoping to buy the dip. Hence, swings and bounces, even though I have a high rectangle lurking above signifying resistance.

All elements in the snapshot are potential support and resistance while the curves might highlight bigger forces at play that can influence the price. If these elements are broken, the picture changes.

I decided to post now because I like the setup at the green rectangle I developed right after the news of the Pelosi bet (several days ago). Since then I have been watching this stock and was wondering what will actually happen in this murky water of cybersecurity, which is a sector I am highly bullish biased on for several reasons.

Happy hunting. Hope it will be as successful as the Pin Ball on Apple. That one has already 4 or 5 bounces from shapes.

Mar 12

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The green rectangle has been holding as support and it is now over. This needs a green candle to start a potential bull wave, otherwise it could just fall of this rectangle.

Mar 20

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Let's see if the mood and/or volatility changes at the vertical rectangle.

Apr 2

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Change of mood at the vertical rectangle, but no big increase in volatility and momentum. Not sure if the blue one will get to be tested before visiting the red. I can see the red becoming the next playground if the bulls don't get scared and let the bears crush it.

Apr 15

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Interesting pivot at the red. Will the price get squeezed in this zone between it and the blue curve? I don't know if it will have momentum to jump out in either direction. Let's see if the blue holds if it keeps this mood.

Apr 18

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Envisioned squeezed scenario becomes reality between the red and the blue curve. I think we should pay careful attention to what can happen after the red rectangle ends, where it meets the curve. The price could pop hard in either direction. I am biased short because of the uncertainty in the Middle East that can shake the whole global scene, but this bias can obviously be inaccurate.

Apr 23

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We have liftoff. This could touch 323 eventually. I don't know if there will be any retests looking back at this zone, and I am also not convinced of the overall sentiment in the market regarding momentum. Also, the pop happened sooner than initially envisioned so it doesn't seem to be following the script so anything can happen...

Apr 29

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The lower edge of the red rectangle playground acted as resistance twice, then retested with a bounce. Upper edge seems to be causing some trouble for the bulls, but my guess is they can eventually break through at least towards 310. Time will tell. For now I will be ignoring the blue curve as potential support for a retest. Don't even know if it will be relevant until the red vertical time stamp which could coincide with a change in mood sentiment or volatility, right before the earnings report.

May 7

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Red rectangle over, resistance over. Level pierced on the up eventually as predicted? Not predicted. Just guessed. While I might now know where this timid climb will end, I am interested in the when regarding the time stamp of the red rectangle (16-17 may) right before earnings. Things could change at or after that.

May 15

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above 310, approaching the red rectangle time stamp before earnings. Read a good article about this company but it shouldn't need promoting for a pump if the earnings are good. Optimistic outlook from insiders, but time and numbers will tell. Not much above for resistance in the project in case of a rocket launch, unless it is a huge one.

May 20

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The level mentioned in a previous comment has been reached. After earnings in extended hours, the stock is down 8%. Big drop from the level.

May 21

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Bullish day after the drop on earnings report, but my guess is that this won't be able to break the top for higher highs, rather slowly descent along the blue curve. I might be wrong.

May 31

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Here it is. Further descent approaching the blue curve again which was narrowly avoided several times. Unfortunately I do not see the case for the bullish perspective and a revisit of 323 and if I am not wrong on this one, we might see later rather than sooner, a 233 eventually, unless we see a bounce from the purple sitting under the blue curve...

Jun 6

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Not confident in the potential bullish prospect for this stock in the near future. If it starts climbing I would watch closely for any signs of weakness that might begin another potential descending wave.

Jun 11

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I was considering the potential for a rebound but the 2 green days with longer candles contributed to the formation of a different type of wave than expected. Meaning, this is a little more bullish toned than expected and without a decisive bearish day I wouldn't hold my breath on any shorting setups as the scenario of a test of the 323 level is not impossible from this position as it stands now.

Jun 20

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3rd pivot at 323 and a hit on the first blue dot. Bears might want to test the waters a little bit to see how the bulls hold up. On the other side of the spectrum, the bulls will need a solid case for a more optimistic scenario that can break the level which already saw 4 wave tops around it after the big gap.
Will we see another dot being hit? Maybe. Will we see the price go deeper towards the red dot level around 270? I doubt it. If this actually drops lower and finds support around 280-290, there is a case for a bullish attempt to try and first reach 333.

Jun 26

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Palo flirting with the prospect of breaking the 323 level which could trigger a visit of 363. The level needs to be decisively penetrated to avoid a withdrawal below it.

Jul 26

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Last time PANW touched a nen dot it went up 10%. Not sure if the second case will be similar, although we are at the infamous 324 level which seems to be acting as support after being such a stubborn resistance.

Aug 6

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Bearish mood for panwan and I don't know how high this grasshopper can jump. We could end up seeing it in the green zone (was included in the initial idea) bellow eventually.

Aug 13

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at the previously added yellow zone. looking forward to see if resistance holds here...

Aug 16

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Bearish day after reaching the levels of previous high. I like the short from this position with a potential target around 310.