This one can be a real roller coaster. My first trade in the last 12 months is still being held and down 48% and I have 7 open lots that are all down at least 28%. However, I have also closed 3 trades in PCT in that time that gained between 48% and 51% and 5 total closed trades over 40% in the last 12 months. In all, 26 of the 33 trades so far were profitable.
INCLUDING the 7 currently held losers, the average return of all 33 trades in the last 12 months is +5.1% and the median trade is also at 5.1%.
It is resting right above its 50d SMA and has rejected significant breaks through the 50d twice in the last two days, closing above it both times. It also had 5 consecutive down days before today and today it rallied to close flat with yesterday or it would have been 6. All of those are good news IMO.
It had a 10 consecutive down day streak to open the year, but then rallied over 100% in the next 2 months. At the end of that it tanked 12% in one day, only to have reclaimed all of that and then some over the next 11 trading days. Then it lost 30+% in a month and then gained almost 50% in the next 2 months. So like I said, make sure the safety harness is in the locked position and have the oxygen mask ready as it could be a very wild ride.
A 5% rally from here (the average trade result) just gets it back to its 5d SMA so it feels like this one COULD be a >5% rebound to overbought. Will sell all lots that are profitable once it becomes overbought.
Full disclosure, a recent news release about focusing on upgrades to their systems is, IMO, telegraphing a weak earnings report, and I suspect why the stock is oversold.
TBH this one doesn't feel as much like a lock as my previous trades did, but the potential significant upside on this makes it attractive. It could be a nothing burger or even a loss, given that the stock itself is down 50% or so in 12 months. But it has been trending upward for the last few months, so I'm willing to take a shot here.
INCLUDING the 7 currently held losers, the average return of all 33 trades in the last 12 months is +5.1% and the median trade is also at 5.1%.
It is resting right above its 50d SMA and has rejected significant breaks through the 50d twice in the last two days, closing above it both times. It also had 5 consecutive down days before today and today it rallied to close flat with yesterday or it would have been 6. All of those are good news IMO.
It had a 10 consecutive down day streak to open the year, but then rallied over 100% in the next 2 months. At the end of that it tanked 12% in one day, only to have reclaimed all of that and then some over the next 11 trading days. Then it lost 30+% in a month and then gained almost 50% in the next 2 months. So like I said, make sure the safety harness is in the locked position and have the oxygen mask ready as it could be a very wild ride.
A 5% rally from here (the average trade result) just gets it back to its 5d SMA so it feels like this one COULD be a >5% rebound to overbought. Will sell all lots that are profitable once it becomes overbought.
Full disclosure, a recent news release about focusing on upgrades to their systems is, IMO, telegraphing a weak earnings report, and I suspect why the stock is oversold.
TBH this one doesn't feel as much like a lock as my previous trades did, but the potential significant upside on this makes it attractive. It could be a nothing burger or even a loss, given that the stock itself is down 50% or so in 12 months. But it has been trending upward for the last few months, so I'm willing to take a shot here.
Note
Still oversold. Added another lot @5.285 just before the close.Note
Forgot to update yesterday. Still oversold. Added another lot @5.17 at the close.Note
Just closed entire position at 5.7537I'll update the performance results after the close
Note
Closed position dataLot 1: +5.1% in 6 trading days
Lot 2: +8.9% in 5 trading days
Lot 3: +11.3% in 3 trading days
29-7 overall now
Avg gain = 6.7% (includes 7 lots that are down since opening them)
Median gain = 8.3%
Total 12M gain (including current losers) = 2.41x lot size
Note
For the record, as of now it would be 36-0 after the monster run in PCT last week.Note
Trade results summary Wins 3 Losses 0
+5.1% in 6 days
+8.9% in 5 days
+11.3% in 3 days
Avg return = +8.4%
Avg hold = 4.7 days
Per lot per day held annualized return = +454%
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.