Progyny, Inc.Long
11/13/24 - $pgny - Starter position ~$14 post EPS
11/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: PGNY
Starter position ~$14 post EPS
- don't love the ceo too many "uh's" during the conf call. exhausting to listen to and doesn't build confidence. surprisingly this matters a lot in my process.
- but this is "healthcare" biz so i'll think about it a bit more industrially (ironically)
- after the 13% off move on miss... you're looking at 1.1 bn ish on EV (after net cash). and if you take out the egregious stock comp +/- you conservatively next year could justify 75 mm "clean" FCF so that's about 7% yield. it's a proftable biz w good mgns.
- on 5x EV EBITDA (after the sell off), w/ EBITDA growth still HSD moving perhaps higher, that looks pretty reasonable.
- right now i'm looking to enter names that seem to have decent mkt shares/ moats that aren't just "tech". and where i can presumably build a small 20% of my total book (not just one name!) that i can feel comfortable with my basis enough to rent upside on monthly OTM calls. this is precisely what i am planning to do with
SHLS after y'day's move. for perspective, tho, i have much more confidence in the SHLS valuation vs. PGNY given my experience working w/ solar in the last number of months, so i'm at 25 bps in pgny (which rn is a distraction size and i'd like to get closer to 50 bps if we get into the low 14's and i'll take the stock to a 75-100 bps position if we enter the 12s or 13's if/when). i genuinely think the valuation there would be "too" cheap, so if we do see say low 12s/shr, i might be closer to 1.5% size.
- also i'm not wed to this 25 bps kicker. if the stock just rips back to down 5% today... i might shed it.
what do u guys think on this thing?
V
PGNYStarter position ~$14 post EPS
- don't love the ceo too many "uh's" during the conf call. exhausting to listen to and doesn't build confidence. surprisingly this matters a lot in my process.
- but this is "healthcare" biz so i'll think about it a bit more industrially (ironically)
- after the 13% off move on miss... you're looking at 1.1 bn ish on EV (after net cash). and if you take out the egregious stock comp +/- you conservatively next year could justify 75 mm "clean" FCF so that's about 7% yield. it's a proftable biz w good mgns.
- on 5x EV EBITDA (after the sell off), w/ EBITDA growth still HSD moving perhaps higher, that looks pretty reasonable.
- right now i'm looking to enter names that seem to have decent mkt shares/ moats that aren't just "tech". and where i can presumably build a small 20% of my total book (not just one name!) that i can feel comfortable with my basis enough to rent upside on monthly OTM calls. this is precisely what i am planning to do with
SHLS after y'day's move. for perspective, tho, i have much more confidence in the SHLS valuation vs. PGNY given my experience working w/ solar in the last number of months, so i'm at 25 bps in pgny (which rn is a distraction size and i'd like to get closer to 50 bps if we get into the low 14's and i'll take the stock to a 75-100 bps position if we enter the 12s or 13's if/when). i genuinely think the valuation there would be "too" cheap, so if we do see say low 12s/shr, i might be closer to 1.5% size.- also i'm not wed to this 25 bps kicker. if the stock just rips back to down 5% today... i might shed it.
what do u guys think on this thing?
V
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.