Qqq ... 10% correction

Jan 9

From July to December Qqq traded inside a rising wedge..

That rising wedge was broken and retested

The target here would be 480-486.
But a trip down to daily 200sma or weekly 50sma is most likely



So what has been the hold up..
I looked at this from a few angles and I think Qqq is creating a Bearish Descending triangle that will be broken late this month.



Bulls will probably see a bullflag




But I think it can be both but the bullflag will have to head lower
And the first target would be 492 by End of month




As far as the tech sectors go..

XLK , the biggest sector
When u focus on the last 30days price looks like it's trading sideways


But zoom out and you'll see it's the same as Qqq with respects to the wedge



Price has been holding above weekly
21ema at 230... Below that and next leg down starts . Until then 230-241 is distribution


Soxx and SMH are both Chip sectors..


Nvda and TSLA follow SMH more

While AMD and Qcom follow Soxx

Soxx

Daily 50sma crossed below 200 a few weeks back.. last time this happened was 2022.. I think this weakness in chips will last for months..
Price closed back below 200sma this week and I don't think it gets back over it until this correction is done. The only safe long is over 240 , everything else is knife



SMH
It's going to be more bag holders here
. Price got rejected hard here at 264 resistance... In the next few days chips will be the weakest.. expect SMH to pull back to weekly 50sma or price action at 237..

If 237 is losses then we head back to Sept levels.




XLC
This is the sector of Meta, Googl and Nflx
Honestly this is the most dangerous sector to be long in! Look at the monthly Candle, RSI ,Money flow and stochastic.. when ever I see this I think Dotcom bust.
Fell out of wedge similar to XLK and Qqq..
Also trading sideways similar to XLK
My target is 88.. I doubt this sector makes its out of Q1 alive



This is the sector of
Amzn and TSLA
Rising wedge again followed by a bear channel.. price is hovering above the 50sma.. once that breaks my target is 212-214 previous ATH..

Daily money flow is almost oversold though so id wait for a break below 50sma to short and be ready to eject at 214 for a dead cat bounce..




Focusing on the smaller time frames , I think Qqq bounces back to 520-523 before the next leg down.. hourly has went oversold on NQ.... I don't think Qqq breaks back over 523 and that's where id reload shorts....

One of my main indicators is XLK..
It's the biggest sector..
If it breaks over 241 then this correction is over and I was wrong but if it breaks below that weekly 21ema then the next major leg down has started.

Vix is showing bullish ascending wedge.. usually vix shows opposite pattern of indexes.. if you see a double top on spy normally there's a double bottom on Vix .

Jan 10

Note

Zoom out.. look at the weekly candle on QQQ
More lows are coming next week .
Most likely 495.. sure price could bounce but we likely don't see above 510-512.50..
Fade the pops

Jan 10

Note

Oversold indicators will be useless until narrative changes.. the narrative now is higher rates for longer.. For a true bounce to come it will take a really cool CPI next week. And even then the bounce will make a lower high.. . We will make another low next week . Most likely 498 but 495 is on the table too!

Jan 12

Note

Qqq
Monthly chart (Log scale)
You have to use logarithmic to chart the monthly because of parabolic move on QQQ 2020. Chart similar To IWM and NYA.
We are at the top of a 16 yr channel and The monthly Stoch,MFI and RSI are all over bought..
If we were to flash crash to the bottom of this channel we'd tag 380. As it stands we'll most likely tag 400 on a slower decline


Weekly chart
Secondary trendline here along with weekly 20sma...
Weekly trendline support and 20sma stands at 498. this will be extremely tough support... I think there will be a bounce back to 516-520 from there.


Daily chart
Using the 100sma and Fib levels .
My fib levels are from ATH 539 and Oct 2023 low at 342


As you can see daily levels of tough support at 497 which is close to the weekly support at 498..

With that being said
Qqq doesn't like to be extended more than 5% from it's 20sma before it snaps back .. a drop to 497 would put it in that area..



I know I said 485 but that will only come with a close below 494... For now fade any pop until 497-498.. After that long Qqq until 516-520.. stop loss below 495

Jan 12

Note

Here's daily chart with 100sma

Jan 13

Note

Biggest tech sector
XLK
Has gapped below weekly 20sma

Will now tag the daily 200sma at 220.
The tech isn't done selling..
Don't stay long on calls and very risky to swing

Jan 13

Note

I'm looking at this XLC sector from 2 angles. Both angles show me a H&S but 1 angles is showing the pattern is complete and all is need is a neckline break


The other perspective is that we just completed the head and we need to bounce for a right shoulder



Either way this sector is going to get Hammered before this quarter is over

Jan 13

Note

My path for QQQ next 2 days...
If PPI comes in good then we push back to 510 and await CPI..

If PPI comes in bad then 497..

I'd prefer a short at 510 ahead of CPI

Jan 13

Note

Last look B4 the close.

Closing here at resistance on minor channel.. I'm expecting 497 but be careful if youre trading weekly puts. If PPI and CPI come in good they will squeeze this back up to 512 -515..

Jan 14

Note

QQQ
We should push up to that 511.50 gap resistance minimum today..
507.30 is support now.


I wouldn't open any shorts intra day maybe at the close if you feel.

Jan 14

Note

QQQ
510 is sticky.. throw in this trendline here and you want a tight stop on your calls

Jan 14

Note

Changed my mind on the short QQQ.. I'm short NVDA from 134...

130p 1/24
TGT 125

I'll add if I need to up to 137

Jan 15

Note

511.50 support on Qqq...
Doubt this breaks over 514-516 .. that's your short entry

Jan 15

Note

We all have to make a decision based on our technicals... And what I see is the election gap at 492 on Qqq being close before any break above 520... We are here at 516 now...

I we break over 520 then I was wrong and 530 gap close comes next...

The biggest red flag for me here is IWM not being able to break back over 226 which means this pump lacks sincerity and will most likely be used for exit liquidity for the same sellers that have been selling since Christmas

Jan 15

Note

Some more bank earnings and TSM tomorrow.. if we do gap up then market will Squeeze till QQQ 530..


A lot of damage was undone today..

I'll be hedging my Nvda puts with MSFT 430 calls
Small position

Jan 16

Note

Good morning.. That pullback to the 20sma happened before 492 gap close..
518 will be resistance

3 scenarios today

Bull over 520
Chop 515-518
Bear - reverse from trendline and 20sma

Mix tech premarket. If they are bullish they will buy the dip on the red ones and push Qqq over 520..

If it's chop then they will prop chips and keep a few big names red..

If it's Bearish, they will rugpull chips

Jan 16

Note

SMH Chip sector
Gapping up here at 257 resistance... Last 7 months price hasn't lasted a day above this area.. liquidity for sellers..
I'm probably smoked on My NVDA weeklies but my 1/24 stands good chance here with this setup

Jan 16

Note

XLK reversing off 234 resistance and 20sma

Jan 16

Note

QQQ
Below 514 (50sma)
And last 2 day pump will be wiped away
Otherwise it's chopped into opex tomorrow 514-518

Jan 16

Note

Qqq 15 min chart... I think it's curling over here... Below 514 gives more certainty but it looks like an intra day H&S building here. The chop is The head round off..
TGT on this would be 500-505

Jan 17

Note

Good morning!

Market has chosen to head higher

2 red flags for bears..

1. Iwm above 226

2. 10yr gapping below 20sma



Qqq 518 is support now..
Above 520 and 529 gap close comes
Below 518 and the gap up was a trap

Jan 17

Note

Games...
None of the tech sectors have broken above yesterday's resistance but QQQ is somehow pushing higher..
Alternative trendline resistance