$RIOT * WEEKLY TF EWP FIB TC ANALYSIS
Updated
Let’s break down the potential Elliott Wave scenarios that may unfold, along with alternative possibilities. I’ll review the key details of the chart I provided:
Primary Scenario: Completion of Corrective Wave
Wave Count:
• It appears that RIOT has completed a large corrective (A)-(B)-(C) wave.
• The (A) wave bottomed around early 2020, and the (B) wave rallied to an extreme high around mid-2021.
• The ongoing (C) wave has been pushing lower and is now potentially near completion, suggesting that the bottom could be forming soon.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
• The price is close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which typically acts as a major reversal zone in corrective waves.
• There’s also a Fibonacci cluster indicating confluence between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracement zones around $6-$7. This increases the likelihood of a reversal if the price holds at this level.
Confirmation of Trend Reversal:
• For this scenario to play out, we would expect a five-wave impulsive structure upward to begin. This would be Wave 1 of a new bullish cycle. The key confirmation would come if RIOT breaks above the downward channel resistance with strong volume and follows through with higher highs and higher lows.
Alternative Scenario: Extended Correction (Complex Correction)
Possibility of an (X) Wave or Further Downside:
• In some cases, after an (A)-(B)-(C) correction, a complex structure could unfold, resulting in an (X) wave and then another corrective pattern (Y).
• This would imply that RIOT could consolidate further or possibly make another low before finally reversing. The chart does suggest this possibility due to the large downward channel still being intact.
Deeper Fibonacci Levels:
• If the price fails to hold around the current levels, the next key Fibonacci level around the 0.786 retracement (around $3.25-$4.00) could be targeted. This might be the level where the final capitulation occurs before a reversal.
Wave Count Indicators:
• Wave 1 Upward: If the bottom is in, we could see the start of a wave 1 upwards, which should follow an impulsive five-wave structure. This would be a strong indicator that the correction has ended.
• RSI: A bullish divergence on the RSI, where the price makes lower lows but the RSI makes higher lows, would be a strong confirmation of a reversal. Keep an eye on this divergence in shorter time frames (e.g., weekly or daily charts).
• Break of Downward Channel: Watch for a break of the upper boundary of the downward channel. This break should be accompanied by a surge in volume and a higher low formation, marking the shift in trend.
Conclusion:
The primary wave count suggests the potential for a bottom forming, particularly around the current support zones near $6-$7. However, in the alternative scenario, a more complex correction could push the price lower to retest the next Fibonacci level, possibly in the $3.25-$4.00 range. Confirmation of a new bullish wave will require a strong impulsive move upward, breaking the channel and solidifying the new trend.
Primary Scenario: Completion of Corrective Wave
Wave Count:
• It appears that RIOT has completed a large corrective (A)-(B)-(C) wave.
• The (A) wave bottomed around early 2020, and the (B) wave rallied to an extreme high around mid-2021.
• The ongoing (C) wave has been pushing lower and is now potentially near completion, suggesting that the bottom could be forming soon.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
• The price is close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which typically acts as a major reversal zone in corrective waves.
• There’s also a Fibonacci cluster indicating confluence between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracement zones around $6-$7. This increases the likelihood of a reversal if the price holds at this level.
Confirmation of Trend Reversal:
• For this scenario to play out, we would expect a five-wave impulsive structure upward to begin. This would be Wave 1 of a new bullish cycle. The key confirmation would come if RIOT breaks above the downward channel resistance with strong volume and follows through with higher highs and higher lows.
Alternative Scenario: Extended Correction (Complex Correction)
Possibility of an (X) Wave or Further Downside:
• In some cases, after an (A)-(B)-(C) correction, a complex structure could unfold, resulting in an (X) wave and then another corrective pattern (Y).
• This would imply that RIOT could consolidate further or possibly make another low before finally reversing. The chart does suggest this possibility due to the large downward channel still being intact.
Deeper Fibonacci Levels:
• If the price fails to hold around the current levels, the next key Fibonacci level around the 0.786 retracement (around $3.25-$4.00) could be targeted. This might be the level where the final capitulation occurs before a reversal.
Wave Count Indicators:
• Wave 1 Upward: If the bottom is in, we could see the start of a wave 1 upwards, which should follow an impulsive five-wave structure. This would be a strong indicator that the correction has ended.
• RSI: A bullish divergence on the RSI, where the price makes lower lows but the RSI makes higher lows, would be a strong confirmation of a reversal. Keep an eye on this divergence in shorter time frames (e.g., weekly or daily charts).
• Break of Downward Channel: Watch for a break of the upper boundary of the downward channel. This break should be accompanied by a surge in volume and a higher low formation, marking the shift in trend.
Conclusion:
The primary wave count suggests the potential for a bottom forming, particularly around the current support zones near $6-$7. However, in the alternative scenario, a more complex correction could push the price lower to retest the next Fibonacci level, possibly in the $3.25-$4.00 range. Confirmation of a new bullish wave will require a strong impulsive move upward, breaking the channel and solidifying the new trend.
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Looking good .... SL into green and let it roll
In technical analysis, several methods focus on higher timeframes to provide a broader, more reliable context for trading or investment decisions. Elliott Wave Principle generally considers historical higher timeframes as mandatory.
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