September will likely determine the market's direction for the rest of the year. Key U.S. economic indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment rates, released in the first couple of weeks of September, will provide more confidence to investors. Currently, the market is pricing in a potential rate cut on September 18.
Positive economic news is likely to encourage risk-on behavior, which could be particularly evident in U.S. small-cap companies and may spill over into traditionally riskier markets like cryptocurrencies. Historically, rate cuts have led to very short-term risk-on behavior before major drops in global indices.
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