My expectation for some downside action last week did not occur. On Friday, thought it was going to happen with a quick slam down to 16.30 but by the time I could blink, it was quickly rising back up. Such a bid in the paper market is to say the least, a bit surprising after the long, sustained selling that we have seen for years. I guess I'm not used to it at all.
When looking at the weekly line chart, the two corrections appear to be text book Elliott Wave Theory with the wave 2 correction being a zig-zag and the wave 4 correction being a flat. It's a bit confusing as we see that wave 1 might have only been 3 waves instead of 5. Still expecting some sell at least to complete an A-B-C correction but if the wave 4 is a flat, then we might only expect price to drop to 16.20 completing the formation.
If this is a bullish wave, Wave 5's in commodities are generally the strongest so perhaps a push up to the 20 level can be possible. In the end, for me the signals are mixed and confusing. I continue to accumulate on the physical side and have cut my paper options to only slightly bullish with long 2022 LEAPs. Most of the 2021 LEAPs have been sold or spread off.
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