SP500 MAJOR RECESSION COMING...

Aug 21

The unemployment rate has been steadily rising for the past year, which as seen on the comparison regularly precedes major economic downturn.

Aug 21

Note

Cycles? Algorithms? Matrix?



lol

Aug 21

Note

edition.cnn.com/2024/08/21/economy/bls-jobs-revisions/index.html

Aug 26

Note

SMART MONEY
- The 0.1% are predominantly selling.

markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/warren-buffett-owns-more-t-bills-yields-federal-reserve-berkshire-2024-8
secform4.com/insider-trading/1045810.htm
secform4.com/insider-trading/1018724.htm
secform4.com/insider-trading/1326801.htm
secform4.com/insider-trading/1652044.htm
secform4.com/insider-trading/1067983.htm

DEBT/DERIVATIVES BUBBLE
- Top 100 banks in US have at least around 209 trillion USD in derivatives exposure.
- Just the size of the YEN carry trade could be 20 trillion +.
- Personal debt at unprecedented highs. $1.3 trillion in the US, third of that created in the past year.
- "Fifty banks saw unrealized losses on their investment securities portfolios exceed at least 50% of their capital equity in the first quarter of 2024,"

fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/unbooked-losses-banks-capital-equity
usbanklocations.com/bank-rank/derivatives.html
channelnewsasia.com/business/japans-government-debt-us20-trillion-carry-trade-deutsche-bank-3919416
abcnews.go.com/US/americans-credit-card-debt-hits-record-113-trillion/story?id=106990807

POSSIBLE BLACK SWANS
- Collapse of a financial institution
- New war (Israel x Iran, China x Taiwan...)
- More unwinding of the YEN carry trade

NVDA x CSCO comparison
- Could it really be more obvious?


Remember how they stopped the August flash crash?
- archive.ph/2024.08.05-141947/https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-traders-furious-outages-hit-major-us-brokerages-amid-black-monday-chaos

Remember how one of the biggest causes of the 1929 crash was due to people getting into debt over investments?
britannica.com/event/stock-market-crash-of-1929

All of that being said, I'm convinced we are heading into a recession of a size none of us saw yet. Seems unimaginable - always does until it doesn't.



Food for thought.

Sep 20

Note

Current view at NASDAQ with the upcoming rate cuts: