SPX - do you really want to buy here ? 2022 all over again ?

Feb 4

Looking at this SPX chart of 25 years and the MACD lines getting closer and closer I just can't see why to buy here except for short trades from one week to the next.
The MACD is ticking down and it could lead to another or even worse 2022.

We could get a blow-off top to 6300-6500, but looking at charts of big tech, Bitcoin, Gold and considering the uncertainty created by the new US administration, I am not seeing the sentiment for more bullishness. Might change over the next few days, who knows.

Feb 7

Note

At the end of 2021 major support was the 92D SMA. Once that was broken and retested the decline began:


looks like that is still the case today:

Feb 8

Note

lower high could lead to a lower low next week

Feb 10

Note

You can see quite often that there are short spikes of candles that just briefly touch elements of the structure and might give you a hint what is going on behind the scenes.
Inspired by trader MAZing I have added two trendlines that connect these little spikes. You can also see them touching the fib retracements and the big white channel:


The fib retracements lead to the low of the covid crash. If this plays out, we could see a correction to the middle of the channel and 2021 high.

Feb 14

Note

double top with resistance. Nothing happening before the long WE. Next week will decide direction. Wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to the red line between Feb 20-24.

Feb 18

Note

possible scenario: the market might have topped. Let's see if it breaks the white trendline and VIX breaks out of the triangle in the next two weeks.

Feb 21

Note

white trendline broken:


price bounced and then broke it, another indication that a correction might have started:

Feb 21

Note

big picture: might not be long until monthly MACD cross


price hit the first fib retracement:

Feb 22

Note

looks like trouble ahead. If not next week then in early March.

Feb 24

Note

breakout and retest, just a matter of time now ?

Feb 26

Note

next support at 5700 or 5600

Feb 26

Note

Feb 27

Note

TICK TOCK

Feb 28

Note

price is reacting to the green (rejection) and red (support) trend lines and the fib retracements. If we see another retest and rejection of the purple 0.908, I'll view that as confirmation of the bear market.

Mar 1

Note

first it looked exactly like what I was looking for yesterday, retest of the 0.908 fib retracement and rejection.
In the last two trading hours the entire (oversold) market got a pump of 100 points SPX.



I have adjusted the red channel a bit, but I am still sticking to my analysis that the green uptrend is over and red is our new trend.



Right before the 100 point pump, the 4W MACD was at 0.X. Seems like the computers stepped in, it wasn't the time just yet.



During the COVID crash the VIX went up to 85. Can we see 90 this time ?

Mar 3

Note

still respecting all the fib retracements and trend lines:



monthly MACD negative:

Mar 6

Note

MACD with standard setting is stil positive:



dancing around the 200D SMA at 5747



About time for another Friday - Monday over night drop. 5525 maybe ? A 4% drop wouldn't trigger the circuit breakers.

Mar 6

Note

VIX could cool down a bit to 23 and if trend line support holds rocket higher on Monday:

Mar 7

Note

this is a gamble over the weekend, but price did not cross the 0.855 retracement and it looks more like a liquidity grab


on the other hand, on the ES this looks like a good buy point:


NDX retested the 200D SMA but did not cross it:


This channel is still not broken:


VIX trend still intact:

Mar 9

Note

Monthly chart. This could be bad, question is like 2022, 2020 or 2008 ?

Mar 11

Note

as expected, it went lower after the close and currently it looks like just a 0.382 retrace of the drop.



According to elliottwavetrader.net all of this could still be a potential wave iv and the final wave v will lead to the 6500 area. Invalidation of that comes with the break below 5500 and continuation through 5400. If that happens, the bull market is over. Which in my opinion is alread the case.

Mar 11

Note

Hit the 0.764 retracement perfectly, which means that this was the plan of the big players all along. This could be the end of a correction, under normal circumstances. The new US administration is far from normal and I can't see this going to 6300+ with all the bad news.

Mar 12

Note

sideways today, but still within the channel:


VIX cooling off a bit. Still not convinced of the tournaround. MSFT and AAPL could/should drop another 10%.

Mar 13

Note

In 2020 the VIX peaked at the tip of the triangle:


The same could be the case now:


good support and very low RSI on the US100:


bullish divergence on the MACD and RSI of US500 and price closed exactly on the 0.764 retracement


so from tomorrow into OPEX on the 21st I'd expect a bullish trend. It's either that or a complete meltdown of the market to the 17k area.

Mar 14

Note

so far exactly as expected, the support at 5500 held and price left the red channel:


maybe this was just a small VIX triangle. The uptrend was broken and retested.


Alternatively this could be a wave 2 in VIX and after a retrace next week the market crash will continue.

Mar 16

Note

I mainly watch the US500 and US100 charts and use them for analysis, because they provide the complete picture of 23h per day instead of SPXs 6.5h during NY session. But you can't fit every indicator, trend line and channel into one chart. So I use SPX for Eliott Wave with Fib extensions and the big white channel you can see in the first post.

Friday the 21st is the so called "triple witching" day of options expiration. This always leads to higher volatility from Monday - Thursday as the big players try to push price into their preferred region.

According to the max pain theory, price should end up in the 5850 area (yellow box)

Mar 20

Note

this could be a ABC correction setting up more downside next week

Mar 21

Note

VIX with triple bottom after breakout and retest of the channel. Could be bad if this goes up again from here:

Mar 21

Note

On the other hand. Modified the red channel a bit, twice as wide now:


Daily chart favors the long side. The only alternative would be a COVID crash 2.0.

Mar 21

Note

on SPX:


seems red is the direction the market will take, but not just yet

Mar 22

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next week should be green, therefore changed the VIX channel as well. Down to the 0.236 or 0.145 retracement and breakout in April.


Target for SPX is 5800 and NDX 20400 to complete the correction to the upside.

Mar 24

Note

US 500 has already reached the target box....only 3 points away from the "M" neckline. So this could sell off from here.

Mar 27

Note

So far as expected:


VIX might have found a bottom, but not sure yet. Still trading inside the channel:


MACD not far away from crossing into positive territory:

Mar 30

Note

quick weekend update:
VIX bottomed at 17 and jumped out of the red channel with a gap:


US500 was rejected at the 30D and 200D moving averages. Potential target:

Apr 1

Note

Apr 1

Note

ES retesting the channel from below:

Apr 3

Note

the NAS is the boss, seems this was all part of the plan. Red trend still valid:


same as during the last uptrend, there are two trend lines on VIX. When the lower one was broken only for a few minutes, I was pretty sure that the rally yesterday was fake

Apr 5

Note

The Trump tariff drop happend quite violently.
Price went below the 0.764 extension, so next logical target was the 0.618. That didn't hold, so I expect the 0.5 to be hit this week.

Apr 12

Note

0.5 was hit and acted as support. New uptrend channel and if this passes the 0.764 retracement, this was a 3-wave correction and the bull market is still alive.

Apr 13

Note

as expected VIX was the highest at the tip of the triangle. Looks like this was orchestrated by big money using US politics as a trigger. If next week gives us a corrective pullback to 5150-5250 on the S&P, the bull market is back.

Apr 14

Note

VIX and US500 might be setting up for wave 5

Apr 16

Note

next week will show us the intended market direction, looks like down so far

Apr 22

Note

VIX needs to drop a bit further to invalidate the upward trend:


and US500 has to break above the red and yellow channel limits in order to give us an indication the the temporary bottom was hit on April 7th