I wrote a script to block all small movements of SPX less than +2% and -2 % to magnify big historical changes.
Then this chart appeared showing striking resemblance between 2018 Oct-Dec and 2019. So one conclusion is that market MAY go down in Nov or Dec.
Informed investors know market is weak, overvalued etc. Insiders benefit from timely large bets to up or down side. Savvy investors are confused why market goes up on bad news. Mom and Dads buying on the dip.
Bear's dilema: When you know, you can't go long, but market creeps up, you question the reality, doubt your position, want to go long, sell your short positions because you had enough, then market crashes, big regret, you were right all along.
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