SPY daily chart for March 12, 2025
Hey traders! Checking out the SPY daily chart for March 12, 2025, and it’s looking like a critical moment. We’re sitting in a reversal zone ($556-$562), with the downtrend still in play via that sloping trend line (~$560-$565). MACD’s bearish, but the histogram is flattening, and Stochastic RSI is oversold—hinting at a possible bounce. Key levels: support at $556 (break below targets $540-$545), resistance at $562, $571.36, and $577.05, with $606-$607 as the big hurdle.
My plan: Long if $556 holds with a strong bullish candle, stop below $554, targeting $562 then $571. Short if we break $556 with volume, stop above $558, aiming for $545. Risk-reward 1:2, and I’ll watch volume closely—low moves can fake you out. News today could shake things up, so I’m staying flexible. What do you think—bullish bounce or more downside? Let’s discuss!
* Key Levels:
* Green resistance: ~$606-$607
* Red support/resistance zones: ~$562, $571.36, $577.05
* Current reversal zone: ~$556-$562
* Downward-sloping trend line intersecting around $560-$565
* Current Price: Appears to be in the $556-$562 range, near the lower end of the reversal zone.
* Indicators: MACD shows a bearish crossover with declining momentum, while Stochastic RSI is oversold (below 20), hinting at a potential bounce.
Technical Analysis
The SPY chart reflects a clear short-term downtrend, marked by the downward-sloping trend line and a series of lower highs and lower lows. The price has recently entered a reversal zone ($556-$562), which could serve as a support area. The MACD’s bearish crossover suggests continued selling pressure, but the widening histogram is starting to flatten, indicating a possible slowdown. The Stochastic RSI being oversold is a strong signal that a bounce or consolidation might be on the horizon, though it’s not a guaranteed reversal without price confirmation.
Key levels to watch include:
* Support: $556 is the critical level. A break below could push toward $540-$545.
* Resistance: $562 (top of the reversal zone), $571.36, and $577.05, with the trend line acting as dynamic resistance around $560-$565.
* Major Resistance: $606-$607, where prior resistance held firm.
Potential Scenarios
* Bullish Case: If SPY holds $556 with a strong bullish candle (e.g., hammer or engulfing pattern) and the Stochastic RSI begins to rise, we could see a move to $562 or even $571.36. Volume confirmation would be key.
* Bearish Case: A decisive break below $556 with high volume could accelerate the downtrend, targeting $540-$545. Watch for MACD to reinforce bearish momentum.
* Consolidation: The price might range between $556 and $562 if momentum remains indecisive, especially given the oversold conditions.
Game Plan for Today’s Trading Session
* Entry Points:
* Long: Enter long if the price respects $556 with a bullish reversal signal (e.g., a strong green candle). Set a stop-loss below $554. Target $562 initially, then $571.36 if momentum builds.
* Short: Enter short if the price breaks below $556 with confirmation (e.g., high volume, bearish MACD). Set a stop-loss above $558. Target $545, with a stretch to $540.
* Risk Management:
* Aim for a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. Risk $2 to make $4 per trade.
* Monitor volume—low volume moves are less reliable.
* Be cautious of macroeconomic news (e.g., FOMC updates or inflation data) that could sway the market today.
* Execution Tips:
* For day trading, consider a 1-hour or 15-minute chart to fine-tune entries.
* Watch the trend line rejection around $560-$565 for bearish confirmation or a potential bounce.
My Thoughts and Suggestions
I’m keeping a close eye on this reversal zone ($556-$562) as it feels like a make-or-break point. The oversold Stochastic RSI gives me hope for a bounce, but the downtrend isn’t done until we see a clear reversal signal. I’d lean toward a cautious long if $556 holds, but I won’t chase it without volume backing it up. On the flip side, a break below $556 could signal more pain, so I’ll be ready to short with tight stops. Today’s market moves might hinge on news, so staying flexible is key. Let’s see how it plays out—any thoughts from you all?
My plan: Long if $556 holds with a strong bullish candle, stop below $554, targeting $562 then $571. Short if we break $556 with volume, stop above $558, aiming for $545. Risk-reward 1:2, and I’ll watch volume closely—low moves can fake you out. News today could shake things up, so I’m staying flexible. What do you think—bullish bounce or more downside? Let’s discuss!
* Key Levels:
* Green resistance: ~$606-$607
* Red support/resistance zones: ~$562, $571.36, $577.05
* Current reversal zone: ~$556-$562
* Downward-sloping trend line intersecting around $560-$565
* Current Price: Appears to be in the $556-$562 range, near the lower end of the reversal zone.
* Indicators: MACD shows a bearish crossover with declining momentum, while Stochastic RSI is oversold (below 20), hinting at a potential bounce.
Technical Analysis
The SPY chart reflects a clear short-term downtrend, marked by the downward-sloping trend line and a series of lower highs and lower lows. The price has recently entered a reversal zone ($556-$562), which could serve as a support area. The MACD’s bearish crossover suggests continued selling pressure, but the widening histogram is starting to flatten, indicating a possible slowdown. The Stochastic RSI being oversold is a strong signal that a bounce or consolidation might be on the horizon, though it’s not a guaranteed reversal without price confirmation.
Key levels to watch include:
* Support: $556 is the critical level. A break below could push toward $540-$545.
* Resistance: $562 (top of the reversal zone), $571.36, and $577.05, with the trend line acting as dynamic resistance around $560-$565.
* Major Resistance: $606-$607, where prior resistance held firm.
Potential Scenarios
* Bullish Case: If SPY holds $556 with a strong bullish candle (e.g., hammer or engulfing pattern) and the Stochastic RSI begins to rise, we could see a move to $562 or even $571.36. Volume confirmation would be key.
* Bearish Case: A decisive break below $556 with high volume could accelerate the downtrend, targeting $540-$545. Watch for MACD to reinforce bearish momentum.
* Consolidation: The price might range between $556 and $562 if momentum remains indecisive, especially given the oversold conditions.
Game Plan for Today’s Trading Session
* Entry Points:
* Long: Enter long if the price respects $556 with a bullish reversal signal (e.g., a strong green candle). Set a stop-loss below $554. Target $562 initially, then $571.36 if momentum builds.
* Short: Enter short if the price breaks below $556 with confirmation (e.g., high volume, bearish MACD). Set a stop-loss above $558. Target $545, with a stretch to $540.
* Risk Management:
* Aim for a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. Risk $2 to make $4 per trade.
* Monitor volume—low volume moves are less reliable.
* Be cautious of macroeconomic news (e.g., FOMC updates or inflation data) that could sway the market today.
* Execution Tips:
* For day trading, consider a 1-hour or 15-minute chart to fine-tune entries.
* Watch the trend line rejection around $560-$565 for bearish confirmation or a potential bounce.
My Thoughts and Suggestions
I’m keeping a close eye on this reversal zone ($556-$562) as it feels like a make-or-break point. The oversold Stochastic RSI gives me hope for a bounce, but the downtrend isn’t done until we see a clear reversal signal. I’d lean toward a cautious long if $556 holds, but I won’t chase it without volume backing it up. On the flip side, a break below $556 could signal more pain, so I’ll be ready to short with tight stops. Today’s market moves might hinge on news, so staying flexible is key. Let’s see how it plays out—any thoughts from you all?
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.