STEEM train leaving the station!

Oct 2, 2017

We've just had a big Elliott wave break out on Steem and are reaching the C of an ABC correction. We are currently in the buy zone.

This chart is a 343 minute with 4 moving averages at 7, 21, 77 and 235, as recommended by my man @bdkelly1203. we had a great breakout after the 7 crossed the 77, and we just had a cross of the 77 over the 235 - The train's about to leave the station!

Target should be below the .382 retracement fib at about 0.000475 or so. This entire move should be the 1 and 2 waves of a larger Elliott wave set, I plan to sell at 3, reenter at 4 and ride up to new highs at 5!

Good luck! Choo chooo!

Oct 2, 2017

Trade active

Oct 2, 2017

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Slight update with trendlines and better formatting.

Oct 2, 2017

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Looks like I was a little off with the timing and depth of the C wave, we could hit the 0.786 fib at about 0.0003 BTC before bouncing up. We have a nice inversion candle with high volume and price compression. All systems go :)

Oct 2, 2017

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Well, looks like I set the buy range a bit too high! But we need not worry, in fact this is a great opportunity to buy more. We have our strongest support at the 0.0029, where the candle wick will hit the 77 SMA. This bounce will confirm the uptrend and allow confidence to come back to the market. Still very bullish. If the .0029 is broken, that may be some cause for concern, until then, climb aboard the Steem train!

Oct 2, 2017

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Price has dropped below 0.0029, hitting the 7SMA. I didn't expect the C to be this deep, and recommended a stop loss too high in my original post. (this is my first trading view call, go easy!). Let's adapt. Am I still bullish? Yes. Am I concerned? Yes. The signals are still point to further upside, but the price is pushing the limits. The next logical place to put a stop loss is below 0.0028. However, at this point there is almost certainly going to be a bounce, given the low RSI and recent runnup, as well as the other signals. For this reason I will not use a stop loss and plan to exit on a bounce if the pattern is broken.

Oct 2, 2017

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Looking good. We had a long wick that broke the 77 SMA, but we closed above the 0.786 fib and have found strong support there at the bottom of the buy zone.
Do you have your ticket? Bags packed? All aboard!

Oct 2, 2017

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It's looking good! This candle will tell us everything we need to know. As you can see, we have price compression on either side of our theoretical bottom. The 7 SMA has broken through the 0.618 fib - we need that to turn around before this candle is over. If we don't see a nice pop soon to send that green line north, then we can start to question the pattern. For now, it's spot on. 4 hours left in the candle, if it breaks above 0.00032 then that will be great news and should swing that green line upwards. If it starts testing 0.0003 again, then we can consider a stop loss for damage control. But personally, I'm very confident that we are about so see some nice big green (orange) candles :)

Oct 2, 2017

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This trade has been yet another reminder for myself of one very important rule that the markets keep teaching me again and again, I still haven't learnt! - ALWAYS WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION.
I set the buy range too high because I didn't wait to see how the fibs would support the C wave, so I missed out on a lower buy opportunity. I also built risk into my trade by buying in on the way down, before the pattern was established. Buying on the way up might loose you some gains by entering at a higher position, but it allows you to be more confident in your decision. At the close of this candle, we will have confirmation.
The wicks on our bottom candles are pointing us to the new trend line. We can now confidently set a stop loss below the 77 SMA at about 0.000289. Our target is about 0.000468. Risk/reward ratio is 16.2... Damn... where else can you get that?? This is why we wait until we are confident in our confirmation. I apologise for not enforcing this rule well enough in this post, but every trade is a lesson. Lesson learned. Now let's sit back and enjoy the ride!

Oct 2, 2017

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My last update was a little off, I was speaking about confirmation, and I set the buy point to the curent price, not to the confirmation price, which is why the risk/reward was so crazy! Our entry should be set to the break of the 0.618 fib at 0.00032, our stop loss set to below the 77 SMA at 0.000289. Risk/reward 5.5.
Stops can be tightened as the price runs, but this should be the turn around, no looking back from here.

Oct 2, 2017

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Here I have the pattern highlighted in the RSI, we're not oversold but we seem to have found a floor. If we see further downside then we will still get a bounce to exit on, but the pattern will be broken. Right now we're sitting square on that trendline and hitting right on 40 on the RSI. The market is deciding, and we will have an answer soon.

Oct 2, 2017

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Ok, we got a bad close on that candle. But the good news is that it closed on the 77 SMA, which has been providing strong support, the RSI is holding it's floor, and the more the price is depressed at this point, the stronger the bounce will be. I know I'm moving the goal posts here by changing the EW pattern and the SMA prediction, but we have to adapt to new information. The 7 SMA looks like it's heading for a bounce on the lowest fib, where we should see a strong reversal. We need to decide if this is a confirmation or a dead cat bounce.

Oct 3, 2017

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235 SMA support holding strong. RSI floor unbroken. 7 and 21 SMAs coming for a smooth touchdown on their respective fibs. GET READY! Full STEEM ahead!

Oct 3, 2017

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This may not look like a great situation to some people, but to me, I see an impending blast off. I've highlighted the candles with the lowest volume of the wave set, notice anything? They all occur at inversion points. I like to think of this like the top of a bounce on a trampoline, there's a moment of stillness. The market gets bored, people decide to just wait and see what happens. Let's do just that, wait and see ;)

Oct 3, 2017

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Well, it's crunch time. If the 7SMA crosses the 77, we're in trouble. If it bounces, we're in the clear. BTC looks to have entered a short term down trend, so we could see some rollback into other coins that are ready to run, let's hope we start the new set soon and send that green line north.

Oct 3, 2017

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We just broke support at the 77 SMA, only the 235 left, which we are sitting right on top of. My confidence is dropping with the price, but there's still a chance to turn around. As always, the SMAs tell us the real story, and the 7 and 77 are yet to cross, but impact is inbound.. We'll have to see how it plays out.

Oct 4, 2017

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The short term pattern has been broken, the Elliott wave set is a little over extended. However, long term I am still extremely bullish. I have posted an image of the long term view of this chart, with the candles hidden, and only the longest SMAs showing. As you can see, the golden cross that has just happened recently has not happened since the last breakout. This coin will run, and it will run past my first recommended buy zone. But I'm no longer sure about this local pattern. i will be holding and watching. I won't update this post anymore, but will post another when I see a clearer pattern emerge.