TLT Roadmap Dec 2023

Dec 3, 2023

Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024

Dec 14, 2023

Note

Good start

Dec 31, 2023

Note

Early stage

Feb 19

Note

More pulling back ahead

Apr 6

Note

Should start turning up

Jun 16

Note

Very good price action following the expected path

Aug 1

Note

I made a mistake with the instrument here, instead of TLT should have used IEF as 10 yr yields will fall faster than 30 yr yields

Aug 4

Note

It is highly likely that this upswing starting Oct 2023 extends into Oct 2025. Obviously no straight line but some correction starting Aug into Oct 2024

Aug 5

Note

Entertaining to say the least

Oct 21

Note

Market participants are fully imposing the Trump trade across asset markets. This most likely will form a triangle (currently D wave forming to the downside) before new highs in yields/lows in bonds

Oct 28

Note

Bonds setting initial low on that decline likely this week

7 days ago

Note

JP was a bit hesitant yesterday which is incrementally hawkish (as was Logan). I was very confident that this will happen once DJT wins. More cuts will further destabilize yields

5 days ago

Note

Probably quick rally this week