MARKETS week ahead: April 29 – May 4
Last week in the news
Latest PCE data in the US are showing persistent inflation, decreasing inventor’s expectations of a potential three rate cuts during this year. US Treasury yields reacted to change in sentiment, where the 10Y benchmark reached its weekly highest level at 4.73%. Decrease of geopolitical risks in the Middle East impact short reversal in the gold price, ending the week at $2.337. The US equities were traded in a mixed manner, but still, the S & P 500 advanced more than 2.7% on a weekly basis. The crypto market has had a relatively volatile week, with BTC shortly slipping to levels below 63K during weekend trading. On 1st may Fed's rate decision is scheduled, which might bring back some higher volatility on the market.
Inflation continues to be the main concern of investors in the US. As per Fed`s favourite inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index was increased by 2.8% on a yearly basis in March, slightly higher from the market expectations of 2.7%. On the other hand, posted data show that the personal saving rate dropped 0.4pp in March, which was a decrease of 2 % compared to last year. Investors decreased their expectations of potential three rate cuts to only two during the course of this year. As per CME Group FedWatch gauge, the market is currently estimating two rate cuts with a 44% probability rate. At the same time, consumers are not giving up on spending. As per latest data, Personal spending is up by 0.8% in March on a monthly basis, while dip in savings shows most probably that consumers are currently digging into their savings in order to make purchases.
A new package of laws has been adopted in the European Parliament during the previous week with the aim to further strengthen the regulation related to anti money laundering. The new laws are also addressing large cash payments and crypto companies, among others. By new laws, “obliged entities”, including crypto firms, will be obliged to report suspicious activities, as they are defined by laws.
News is reporting that ARK Invest sold the last of its BITO holdings of around $6.7 million on Thursday. The shares in the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF were bought during the end of last year in anticipation of the approval of the first spot BTC ETF on the market. Just to note that the fund founded its own ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) with the aim to invest in spot BTC.
A Pennsylvania based Republic First Bank is the first bank in the US in 2024 to be seized by regulators. Namely, all business news are reporting that this bank has been seized by Philadelphia authorities on Friday. During the previous period, the Bank was looking for a potential buyer, where Fulton Bank had reached an agreement with FDIC to take over a total 32 branches of the Republic First Bank. The shares of the troubled bank were traded down by 60% on Friday. As news is reporting the bank had about $6 billion in total assets and $4 billion in total deposits as of the end of January this year.
Crypto market cap
As frenzy over Bitcoin halving ended during the previous week, the crypto market is slowly returning to its “old” trading mode. Speculative positions have been closed, which pushed modestly the price of BTC toward the downside during the whole previous week. Selling orders were prevailing, supporting price volatility. Although it might sound like a paradox, analysts are still in agreement that this is positive for BTC, as it needs to finish one cycle in order to start a new one. As of the weekend, total crypto market capitalization dropped by 2% compared to the week before, where around 57B was wiped out from the market. This decrease was led by BTC as the coin lost $ 41B in value during the week. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease, where during the previous week they were moving around 104B, which is a drop from 128B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 623B, which represents a 38% surge from the beginning of this year.
Weekend trading session brought another losing session for BTC. It`s value dropped by 3.2% on a weekly basis, dragging market cap down by 41B. On the opposite side, ETH managed to add to its value during the week, increasing it by 1.6%, adding 6.2B to its market cap. Altcoins were also traded in a mixed manner during the week. There was a sort of equal number of both gaining and losing coins on a weekly basis. Among gainers was Tron, which increased its cap by 8.5% during the week. Binance Coin managed to hold its value relatively steady, increasing it by modest 1.5%. Algorand managed to gain 3.25% during the week. On the opposite side some of the major altcoins were traded down during the week. Solana lost 8.4% in value, losing 5.6B in market cap. DOGE was traded down by more than 10%, decreasing its value by 2.38B. Cardano joined the group of losing coins, with a total drop of 9.2% or 1.6B on a weekly basis. One of the highest losers in relative terms was Filecoin, with a total drop of 12%.
During the previous week there has been a lot of developments when it comes to the number of circulating coins. For the first time in a while, there has been a significant increase of Ethereum`s coins in circulation by even 1.6% on a weekly basis. Litecoin is also one which should be especially mentioned, as this coin had a surge of its coins on the market by 4.2%. Filecoin added a new 0.6% of coins. On the opposite side were Monero and Binance Coin, which significantly decreased their number of coins on the market. Monero had a drop of 5.1%, while BNB`s were down by 1.3% within a single week.
Crypto futures market
Although crypto futures were holding relatively steady during the previous week, still, the major development which occurred during the weekend, have not been priced on a Friday`s closing on the CME. In this sense, some drop in BTC`s short term futures is possible with a first trading day on Monday.
BTC short term futures ended the previous week with a drop of around 0.3% on a weekly basis. At the same time, the long term ones were last traded higher by around 1.6%. Futures maturing in December this year were closed at price $68.520, while those maturing a year later were traded at $73.330.
ETH futures had an increase for all maturities. The short term ones were traded higher by around 2.0%, while those maturing with a longer maturity period were traded around 3.0% higher on a weekly basis. December 2024 closed the week at price $3.337, and December 2025 was last traded at price $3.481.
Latest PCE data in the US are showing persistent inflation, decreasing inventor’s expectations of a potential three rate cuts during this year. US Treasury yields reacted to change in sentiment, where the 10Y benchmark reached its weekly highest level at 4.73%. Decrease of geopolitical risks in the Middle East impact short reversal in the gold price, ending the week at $2.337. The US equities were traded in a mixed manner, but still, the S & P 500 advanced more than 2.7% on a weekly basis. The crypto market has had a relatively volatile week, with BTC shortly slipping to levels below 63K during weekend trading. On 1st may Fed's rate decision is scheduled, which might bring back some higher volatility on the market.
Inflation continues to be the main concern of investors in the US. As per Fed`s favourite inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index was increased by 2.8% on a yearly basis in March, slightly higher from the market expectations of 2.7%. On the other hand, posted data show that the personal saving rate dropped 0.4pp in March, which was a decrease of 2 % compared to last year. Investors decreased their expectations of potential three rate cuts to only two during the course of this year. As per CME Group FedWatch gauge, the market is currently estimating two rate cuts with a 44% probability rate. At the same time, consumers are not giving up on spending. As per latest data, Personal spending is up by 0.8% in March on a monthly basis, while dip in savings shows most probably that consumers are currently digging into their savings in order to make purchases.
A new package of laws has been adopted in the European Parliament during the previous week with the aim to further strengthen the regulation related to anti money laundering. The new laws are also addressing large cash payments and crypto companies, among others. By new laws, “obliged entities”, including crypto firms, will be obliged to report suspicious activities, as they are defined by laws.
News is reporting that ARK Invest sold the last of its BITO holdings of around $6.7 million on Thursday. The shares in the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF were bought during the end of last year in anticipation of the approval of the first spot BTC ETF on the market. Just to note that the fund founded its own ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) with the aim to invest in spot BTC.
A Pennsylvania based Republic First Bank is the first bank in the US in 2024 to be seized by regulators. Namely, all business news are reporting that this bank has been seized by Philadelphia authorities on Friday. During the previous period, the Bank was looking for a potential buyer, where Fulton Bank had reached an agreement with FDIC to take over a total 32 branches of the Republic First Bank. The shares of the troubled bank were traded down by 60% on Friday. As news is reporting the bank had about $6 billion in total assets and $4 billion in total deposits as of the end of January this year.
Crypto market cap
As frenzy over Bitcoin halving ended during the previous week, the crypto market is slowly returning to its “old” trading mode. Speculative positions have been closed, which pushed modestly the price of BTC toward the downside during the whole previous week. Selling orders were prevailing, supporting price volatility. Although it might sound like a paradox, analysts are still in agreement that this is positive for BTC, as it needs to finish one cycle in order to start a new one. As of the weekend, total crypto market capitalization dropped by 2% compared to the week before, where around 57B was wiped out from the market. This decrease was led by BTC as the coin lost $ 41B in value during the week. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease, where during the previous week they were moving around 104B, which is a drop from 128B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year, currently stands at 623B, which represents a 38% surge from the beginning of this year.
Weekend trading session brought another losing session for BTC. It`s value dropped by 3.2% on a weekly basis, dragging market cap down by 41B. On the opposite side, ETH managed to add to its value during the week, increasing it by 1.6%, adding 6.2B to its market cap. Altcoins were also traded in a mixed manner during the week. There was a sort of equal number of both gaining and losing coins on a weekly basis. Among gainers was Tron, which increased its cap by 8.5% during the week. Binance Coin managed to hold its value relatively steady, increasing it by modest 1.5%. Algorand managed to gain 3.25% during the week. On the opposite side some of the major altcoins were traded down during the week. Solana lost 8.4% in value, losing 5.6B in market cap. DOGE was traded down by more than 10%, decreasing its value by 2.38B. Cardano joined the group of losing coins, with a total drop of 9.2% or 1.6B on a weekly basis. One of the highest losers in relative terms was Filecoin, with a total drop of 12%.
During the previous week there has been a lot of developments when it comes to the number of circulating coins. For the first time in a while, there has been a significant increase of Ethereum`s coins in circulation by even 1.6% on a weekly basis. Litecoin is also one which should be especially mentioned, as this coin had a surge of its coins on the market by 4.2%. Filecoin added a new 0.6% of coins. On the opposite side were Monero and Binance Coin, which significantly decreased their number of coins on the market. Monero had a drop of 5.1%, while BNB`s were down by 1.3% within a single week.
Crypto futures market
Although crypto futures were holding relatively steady during the previous week, still, the major development which occurred during the weekend, have not been priced on a Friday`s closing on the CME. In this sense, some drop in BTC`s short term futures is possible with a first trading day on Monday.
BTC short term futures ended the previous week with a drop of around 0.3% on a weekly basis. At the same time, the long term ones were last traded higher by around 1.6%. Futures maturing in December this year were closed at price $68.520, while those maturing a year later were traded at $73.330.
ETH futures had an increase for all maturities. The short term ones were traded higher by around 2.0%, while those maturing with a longer maturity period were traded around 3.0% higher on a weekly basis. December 2024 closed the week at price $3.337, and December 2025 was last traded at price $3.481.
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