Well as I mentioned earlier in one of my Rivian posts, today probably seemed scary to some. If it did to you then you may be overleveraged. My best advice to help alleviate that kind of stress is to trade 10-25% of your normal position size. That way you can layer into a trade lowering your average buy along the way. You should know the count obviously, but FEAR & GREED are you're two worst enemies. You must use every tool in your arsenal to fight them. Otherwise, you lose, and other people take your hard-earned capital. As my mentor has said before, "always assume the other people/retail investors know more than you do...because they do!"
That being said, I have 3 different possibilities I am going to entertain. These are marked by different colors and the KEY for said counts is in the bottom right of the chart. There is also a 3min chart at the bottom of this post for a close up and more detailed fib lines (I know how y'all like them lol).
Primary Count:
My primary expectation for what comes next, is to make one more slight low before raising to finish out wave 5 of iii. I don't want to see price drop below the 0.5 fib retracement @ $228.49 though. OML would ideally go into the 2.236-2.618 fibs that are located in the 3min chart below. I would expect this wave 4 to be deep and long compared to wave 2 as it was VERY short and didn't even touch the 0.5 fib. Wave 4's don't normally go past the 0.5 fib retracement though, so if price goes below mine that is a huge hint, we're probably not dealing with a wave 4. Below $228.49 though and I start to seriously consider this is a very extended 1-2.
1st ALT:
This suggests we have already finished waved 4 and started building a count to the upside towards our next target for 5 of iii. This is very possible, as the structure down is a mess, and I could easily be off by a degree. I'm just not a big fan of how it started. It seemed more like a 3-wave move to me and therefore corrective. As I have said before though, these micro's can be kind of messy and unreliable at times. If that happens just zoom out until it becomes clearer to you. The 1 & 3min MACD's are starting to curl up but could still easily start dropping again. This, at the very least, shows the move down is weakening.
2nd ALT:
As I said before, wave 4's don't normally go past the 0.5 fib retracement. That doesn't mean they can't, but most of the time your fibs are off or you're dealing with something else. When it happens though, I start to think, if this isn't a wave 4 what could it be? According to the structure in front of us, the next most logical thing to me is that this is a very extended 1-2. This is in the middle of a major wave 3 so I suppose it is possible. I would expect most of these extensions to happen a little later in the count though. If this is the case, then we would be in wave a of 2. This would have the potential of dropping near our wave ii low of $205.16. Not something I predict would happen, just a possibility. I would need the a-b waves to make a determination but from the information we have I would predict it to end in the low $220's (if it follows a normal pattern). We can cross this bridge IF we get there though.
With this in mind, I currently have only 20 shares and 3 calls. If we do in fact make OML and then start to move up with strength I will most likely buy some more shares with the possibility of 2 more calls. Good Luck!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
That being said, I have 3 different possibilities I am going to entertain. These are marked by different colors and the KEY for said counts is in the bottom right of the chart. There is also a 3min chart at the bottom of this post for a close up and more detailed fib lines (I know how y'all like them lol).
Primary Count:
My primary expectation for what comes next, is to make one more slight low before raising to finish out wave 5 of iii. I don't want to see price drop below the 0.5 fib retracement @ $228.49 though. OML would ideally go into the 2.236-2.618 fibs that are located in the 3min chart below. I would expect this wave 4 to be deep and long compared to wave 2 as it was VERY short and didn't even touch the 0.5 fib. Wave 4's don't normally go past the 0.5 fib retracement though, so if price goes below mine that is a huge hint, we're probably not dealing with a wave 4. Below $228.49 though and I start to seriously consider this is a very extended 1-2.
1st ALT:
This suggests we have already finished waved 4 and started building a count to the upside towards our next target for 5 of iii. This is very possible, as the structure down is a mess, and I could easily be off by a degree. I'm just not a big fan of how it started. It seemed more like a 3-wave move to me and therefore corrective. As I have said before though, these micro's can be kind of messy and unreliable at times. If that happens just zoom out until it becomes clearer to you. The 1 & 3min MACD's are starting to curl up but could still easily start dropping again. This, at the very least, shows the move down is weakening.
2nd ALT:
As I said before, wave 4's don't normally go past the 0.5 fib retracement. That doesn't mean they can't, but most of the time your fibs are off or you're dealing with something else. When it happens though, I start to think, if this isn't a wave 4 what could it be? According to the structure in front of us, the next most logical thing to me is that this is a very extended 1-2. This is in the middle of a major wave 3 so I suppose it is possible. I would expect most of these extensions to happen a little later in the count though. If this is the case, then we would be in wave a of 2. This would have the potential of dropping near our wave ii low of $205.16. Not something I predict would happen, just a possibility. I would need the a-b waves to make a determination but from the information we have I would predict it to end in the low $220's (if it follows a normal pattern). We can cross this bridge IF we get there though.
With this in mind, I currently have only 20 shares and 3 calls. If we do in fact make OML and then start to move up with strength I will most likely buy some more shares with the possibility of 2 more calls. Good Luck!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Comment:
If I'm not mistaken we should head up today most likely when market opens
Comment:
With this mornings action this can go a few ways. This move down could have been the a wave of 2 or it could have been all of 2 (turquoise). The orange count suggests we are in a leading diagnol about to head higher for v. Interesting thing about this is there is NO overlap between wave ii and iv on the daily chart. To top it off the 4hr appears as if it is trying to start curling up. We slammed into the 0.618 of our primary Wave 1-2 fibs (yellow) which leads me to give credit to the orange count and having us hit the 0.786 for larger wave 1 of 3 of (3) of V.
Comment:
I do apologize but I have too much going on today to make a new post. I expect Tesla to either shoot up and continue on our way towards the $280-$300 area or make a marginal high for a b wave before declining in the c wave. Pre-market will be very telling I think, in what Tesla has in mind. I work tomorrow but will update as able. Don't forget to watch the MACD.
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
