Daily 4XSetUps - Bullish December Trend Broken Today In UBSG

Dec 9, 2024

2024/12/09
Daily 4XSetUps - Bullish December Trend Broken Today In UBSG
“so far in December there has been a bullish upward trend out of a gap!
what tomorrow, after today`s breakdown? back into gap until year end?”



The profit forecasts per share at the major Swiss bank UBS are higher today than seven weeks ago. This positive trend started on October 8th, 2024 at a price of 26.69 CHF. Based on the growth potential and/or other metrics, the share appears to be slightly undervalued. What the medium-term technical 40-day trend also shows - which has been positive since September 27th, 2024. The confirmed technical trend turning point of +1.75% corresponds to CHF 27.11 after the share started the weekend at CHF 28.84.

The relative outperformance of the last four weeks compared to the SXXP is a remarkable +5.90%. The current momentum is therefore excellent. Let's hope this little hopeful rally continues until Christmas 2024 - even into 2025. Which can definitely be justified fundamentally. The ratio between growth plus estimated dividend and P/E ratio is well over 1.6, meaning the company is in an exceptional situation. Because the takeover of Credit Suisse, if you put emotions aside and just look at the bare numbers, was and is the biggest bargain for UBSG in the history of paper money! Anyway? The dividend is well covered by profits. Because only +27.62% of the profit will probably have to be used for dividends over the next 12 months. Therefore, the UBSG share remains a classic, boring basic investment - because there are other exciting and much more volatile bank shares, such as JPM and/or also GS i.e. from the WallStreet.

“Listening to uninformed people is worse than having no answers at all.”
Ray Dalio

CHF 29.57 : 2024/10/30 - Last Annual High 2024
CHF 29.10 : 2024/11/07 - Last False New High 2024
CHF 28.78 : 2024/06/03 - 2nd Annual High 2024
CHF 28.62 : 2024/03/26 - 1st Annual High 2024
CHF 28.18 : 2024/07/15 - False New High 2024
CHF 28.75 : 2024/12/09 - last price action
CHF 26.50 : 2024/07/31 - Upper Trendline Bearish GAP
CHF 25.68 : 2024/08/02 - Lower Trendline Bearish GAP
These are the most important price actions of the UBSG shares. The UBSG share has recently shown itself to be robust and has recorded positive developments. It is noteworthy that UBSG shares rose by a more than impressive +25% year-on-year. This underlines the strength of the Swiss financial giant despite challenging market conditions. However, the basic main momentum towards CHF 30 is likely to have fizzled out for now - and we bulls should content ourselves with baking smaller rolls until the end of 2024! What do I mean by that? The GAP between 26.5 CHF and 25.68 CHF has to be defended for the time being. The best timing should be a trend reversal above 26.45 CHF until the end of this year 2024! Why? Because we can then still argue in the form of an upward trend since the annual low in August 2024. Because since then the lows have always been higher than the previous ones. Which should even be enough until the end of this year 2024. And that would be a great start into 2025 - only to reach new multi-year highs again in 2025!?

And if we look at the big picture at the 30-minute development of the share, then we discover a nice little upward trend since this month of December 2024. But the small short-term bullish rally seems to be running out of steam. The UBSG share closed today -0.31% lower at 28.75 CHF. Actually not worth big news! Do you think? Because the fact that the small, fine upward trend channel went down very sharply in the last 90 minutes today cannot mean anything good - but of course it doesn't have to. Because now it is important for us UBSG bullish traders and/or investors to pay attention to whether the previous upward trend in the month of December 2024 was and is something constructive? Or whether things will go down again in the last month of this year 2024? I fear the second! Unless we see the bulls reclaim the territory of the small, fine uptrend channel tomorrow or later in the week - but I'm not assuming that. Rather, I expect the bears to rebound in price action at the beginning of the month - and that was and is more or less in the last bearish GAP, from November 2024, before the last low of 27.44 CHF was traded. Because since then, traders and/or investors have pushed the price action back above 28 CHF again - the psychologically important price action zone of which must be defended. Because according to the last quarterly results, we had a price action of 29.57CHF & 26.45CHF within just 2 trading days (from October 30th, 2024 & October 31st, 2024). And I fear that if we experience an even lower price action than during the last bearish GAP, from November 25th, 2024 & November 26th, 2024, even between 28.39 CHF & 28.18 CHF, that we could see a lower price action sooner than we can imagine today down to 26.45 CHF. Because the UBSG share was one of the big conservative boring winners in the banking industry this year 2025. And so it is not surprising that last week the US Bank JPMorgan announced a selective approach in the banking industry for 2025. In his outlook available on Friday, analyst Kian Abouhossein prefers the shares of those financial institutions that are less dependent on interest income. His favorites are DBK , UBSG , BARC, ISP and/or NWG . He raised the price target for UBSG shares from 31 to 34 CHF and left them at "overweight". In doing so, he shifted his valuation basis further into the future and now uses his new estimates for 2027.

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CHF 33.00 : 2025/06/30 - Target Price
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CHF 28.75 : 2024/12/09 - last price action
CHF 28.21 : 2024/11/08 - Entry Price
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CHF 25.00 : 2025/06/30 - Stop Price
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Have a good time
- regardless of the price action!
Aaron



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