Nasdaq Elliott wave study … math study ..

Refined Elliott Wave Count (Higher Degree)
Let’s re-evaluate the larger wave structure with more precision by focusing on the price action from late 2024 to mid-March 2025:
Wave 1 (Impulsive):
Start: The low around late 2024 appears to be near 18,250 (approximated from the chart’s early price action).
End: The first significant high is around 19,500, which occurred in early January 2025.
Length: 19,500 - 18,250 = 1,250 points.
This move up is Wave 1 of the higher-degree impulsive wave.
Wave 2 (Corrective):
Start: 19,500.
End: The pullback to around 18,750 (a low in mid-January 2025).
Retracement: 19,500 - 18,750 = 750 points, which is a 60% retracement of Wave 1 (1,250 × 0.618 = 772 points). This is a deep but acceptable retracement for Wave 2, as Wave 2 can retrace up to 61.8% of Wave 1 without invalidating the count.
Wave 2 appears to have completed around 18,750.
Wave 3 (Impulsive):
Start: 18,750.
End: The high at 21,750, which occurred in early March 2025.
Length: 21,750 - 18,750 = 3,000 points.
Fibonacci Extension: Wave 3 often extends to 1.618 or 2.618 times the length of Wave 1.
1.618 × 1,250 = 2,022.5 points.
From the Wave 2 low: 18,750 + 2,022.5 = 20,772.5.
2.618 × 1,250 = 3,272.5 points.
From the Wave 2 low: 18,750 + 3,272.5 = 22,022.5.
The actual Wave 3 length (3,000 points) is very close to the 2.618 extension (3,272.5 points), which is typical for Wave 3 in a strong trending market like the Nasdaq 100. This confirms that the high at 21,750 is likely the end of Wave 3.
Wave 4 (Corrective):
Start: 21,750.
Current Price: 19,490.7 (as of March 19, 2025).
Retracement Levels:
23.6% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.236) = 21,750 - 708 = 21,042.
38.2% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.382) = 21,750 - 1,146 = 20,604.
50% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.5) = 21,750 - 1,500 = 20,250.
61.8% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.618) = 21,750 - 1,854 = 19,896.
Current Position: The price at 19,490.7 has retraced slightly beyond the 61.8% level (19,896), which is a deep retracement but still within the acceptable range for Wave 4. In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 can retrace up to 78.6% of Wave 3 in some cases, especially in indices:
78.6% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.786) = 21,750 - 2,358 = 19,392.
The price is very close to the 78.6% retracement (19,392) and is also testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 19,425, providing strong confluence for a potential Wave 4 low.
Wave 5 (Projected Impulsive):
Wave 5 typically equals the length of Wave 1 or reaches a Fibonacci extension of the entire Wave 1-3 move.
Wave 1 Length: 1,250 points.
From the potential Wave 4 low at 19,490.7: 19,490.7 + 1,250 = 20,740.7.
0.618 Extension of Wave 1-3:
Wave 1-3 range: 18,250 to 21,750 = 3,500 points.
0.618 × 3,500 = 2,163 points.
From the Wave 4 low: 19,490.7 + 2,163 = 21,653.7.
1.0 Extension of Wave 1-3:
1.0 × 3,500 = 3,500 points.
From the Wave 4 low: 19,490.7 + 3,500 = 22,990.7.
Channel Target: The upper boundary of the ascending channel is around 22,250 (as marked on the chart), which aligns closely with the 0.618 extension target of 21,653.7 and suggests a realistic Wave 5 target in the 21,650–22,250 range.

2. Sub-Wave Structure of Wave 4 (A-B-C Correction)
Wave 4 is a corrective wave, typically unfolding in a three-wave A-B-C structure. Let’s break it down with more precision:
Wave A:
Start: 21,750.
End: The first significant low after the peak, which is around 20,276 (a previous support level marked on the chart).
Length: 21,750 - 20,276 = 1,474 points.
Wave B:
Start: 20,276.
End: The bounce to 20,833 (a minor high before the next decline).
Length: 20,833 - 20,276 = 557 points.
Retracement of Wave A: 557 / 1,474 = 37.8%, which is close to a typical 38.2% retracement for Wave B in an A-B-C correction.
Wave C:
Start: 20,833.
Current Price: 19,490.7.
Length So Far: 20,833 - 19,490.7 = 1,342.3 points.
Wave C Projections:
Wave C often equals Wave A: 1,474 points.
From the Wave B high: 20,833 - 1,474 = 19,359.
Wave C can extend to 1.618 × Wave A: 1,474 × 1.618 = 2,384.9 points.
From the Wave B high: 20,833 - 2,384.9 = 18,448.1.
Current Position: The price at 19,490.7 is very close to the 1:1 projection of Wave C (19,359), suggesting that Wave C (and thus Wave 4) is likely nearing completion. The deeper projection to 18,448 seems less likely unless the price breaks below the channel support at 19,425.

3. Confluence with the Ascending Channel
The ascending channel provides additional context for the Elliott Wave count:
Lower Channel Support: The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the channel at 19,425, which aligns closely with the 78.6% retracement of Wave 3 (19,392) and the 1:1 Wave C projection (19,359). This confluence of levels strengthens the case for a Wave 4 low.
Middle of the Channel: The middle of the channel (around 20,276–20,833) acted as resistance during the Wave B bounce and will likely be the first target for Wave 5.
Upper Channel Resistance: The upper boundary of the channel (around 22,250) aligns with the projected Wave 5 target, providing a realistic endpoint for the impulsive wave.

4. RSI Analysis in the Context of Elliott Wave
The RSI is currently at 44.2, down from a recent low of around 40.
Wave 4 and RSI: In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 corrections often coincide with RSI readings near oversold levels (30–40). The RSI dipping to 40 and now showing a slight uptick (with a green arrow) suggests that selling pressure may be exhausting, which is typical at the end of a Wave 4 correction.
Bullish Divergence: The RSI is starting to turn upward while the price is near support, indicating a potential bullish divergence. This supports the idea that Wave 4 is nearing completion and Wave 5 may begin soon.

5. More Accurate Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Wave 5 Upward):
Confirmation: A bounce above 19,490.7, followed by a break above 20,276 (the Wave B high), would confirm the start of Wave 5.
Targets:
First target: 20,276–20,833 (middle of the channel and previous highs).
Second target: 21,653.7 (0.618 extension of Wave 1-3).
Final target: 22,250 (upper channel boundary and potential Wave 5 completion).
Wave 5 Sub-Waves: Wave 5 itself will likely unfold in five sub-waves, so we can expect some consolidation or minor pullbacks as it progresses toward the target.
Bearish Scenario (Deeper Correction):
Invalidation: If the price breaks below 19,425 (the lower channel support), it could invalidate the current Elliott Wave count. A break below 19,000 (the Wave 1 high) would confirm that the larger trend has shifted.
Alternative Count: If the move from 18,750 to 21,750 was a corrective wave (e.g., a larger Wave B), we could be in a larger Wave C down. Targets for a deeper correction would be:
19,000 (psychological support).
18,448 (1.618 extension of Wave A in the A-B-C correction).
18,250 (the start of the larger wave structure).

6. Key Levels to Watch
Support:
19,425 (lower channel boundary and current support).
19,392 (78.6% retracement of Wave 3).
19,359 (1:1 Wave C projection).
19,000 (psychological level and Wave 1 high; a break below this would invalidate the bullish count).
Resistance:
20,276 (Wave B high and middle of the channel).
20,833 (previous high within the channel).
21,653.7 (Wave 5 target based on 0.618 extension).
22,250 (upper channel boundary and final Wave 5 target).

7. Conclusion with More Accurate Details
Current Wave Position: The price is likely completing Wave 4 of a higher-degree impulsive wave, with the A-B-C correction nearing its end around 19,359–19,425. The deep retracement to 78.6% of Wave 3 (19,392) and the alignment with the lower channel support (19,425) provide strong confluence for a Wave 4 low.
Next Move: If the price holds above 19,425 and breaks above 20,276, Wave 5 is likely underway, targeting 21,653.7–22,250. The RSI showing signs of a reversal (bullish divergence) supports this scenario.
Trading Strategy:
Bullish: Enter a long position on a confirmed bounce above 19,490.7, with a stop-loss below 19,425. Target 20,276 as the first level, followed by 20,833 and 22,250.
Bearish: If the price breaks below 19,425, consider a short position with a stop-loss above 19,490.7, targeting 19,000 and potentially 18,448.
Risk Management: The deep retracement in Wave 4 suggests higher volatility, so use tight stop-losses and monitor price action closely for confirmation of the next wave.