10 year - 3 month yield curve has un-inverted
The past may not predict the future, but history does tend to rhyme.
In the past, within 3-8 months of the 10-year/3-month yield curve un-inverting, the world was hit with:
*** 9/11 in 2001
*** The Great Financial Crisis, also known as the subprime mortgage meltdown, in 2008
*** COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020
It's an odd phenomenon that we live in a time when shorter-term maturity vehicles have rewarded investors with more yield than longer-term vehicles. In this case, a 3-month US Treasury Bill commitment had been paying higher interest than a 10-year US Treasury Bond. My completely liquid bank savings account was yielding 5% APY. Why would I lock my funds up for 10 to 30 years when I could be earning more from a savings account with no term?
Without getting into further details, if history continues to rhyme, we might be months away from the next major world event.
In the past, within 3-8 months of the 10-year/3-month yield curve un-inverting, the world was hit with:
*** 9/11 in 2001
*** The Great Financial Crisis, also known as the subprime mortgage meltdown, in 2008
*** COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020
It's an odd phenomenon that we live in a time when shorter-term maturity vehicles have rewarded investors with more yield than longer-term vehicles. In this case, a 3-month US Treasury Bill commitment had been paying higher interest than a 10-year US Treasury Bond. My completely liquid bank savings account was yielding 5% APY. Why would I lock my funds up for 10 to 30 years when I could be earning more from a savings account with no term?
Without getting into further details, if history continues to rhyme, we might be months away from the next major world event.
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