Fed Minutes & Jackson Hole Speech Set Stage for Market Movement

Aug 21

Market Outlook:

Minutes from the Fed's July policy meeting are due later today, followed by Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday. Market participants expect Powell to hint at a potential rate cut in September, though any emphasis on persistent inflation could dampen investor sentiment. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is currently a 69.5% probability of a 25 basis-point cut and a 30.5% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis-point reduction.

Current Technical Outlook:
The trend suggests a potential upward movement as long as the price stays above 40,800. The market is expected to consolidate between 41,030 and 40,850 until a breakout occurs.

Bullish Scenario:
If the price trades above 40,850, it could drive an increase toward 41,030, with further gains potentially leading to 41,345.

Bearish Scenario:
Should the price reverse and stabilize below the pivot line at 40,800, a bearish trend may emerge, targeting 40,480 and 40,320.

Key Levels:

Pivot Line: 40860
Resistance Lines: 41030, 41345, 41600
Support Lines: 40700, 40500, 40330

Expected Trading Range Today:
The price is likely to fluctuate between support at 40800 and resistance at 41130.

Trend: Upward movement.