S&P500 - Temporarily exhausted
Updated
Hello traders!
As presented in previous posts, we believe that price has showed to be in a primary wave (B) to the upside to correct all the downtrend from January 2022 high. Price is likely to ungoing the last leg up of this upside correction. Low volumes and over entusiasm about the soft landing narrative suggest us that this rally can go up to 4300+ before reversing, but we do not take higher highs as our base case.
However, price arrived at a big resistance, with the blue wlfe wave still valid, and managed to exhaust the upside steam creating multiple divergences e lower lows. Also, VIX seems to be about to breakout a bullish wolfe wave :
We sometimes get insights by looking at VVIX, which is the same algorithm of the Vix applied to the VIX itself:
Here we can see that VVIX already broke out, suggesting bullishness for the VIX and bearishness for the index.
We are therefore short from @4152. Our stop loss is already placed on entry. Our first target is 3940, we will re evaluate the price action if we get there.
Breaking 4090 confirms more downside.
Happy trading!
As presented in previous posts, we believe that price has showed to be in a primary wave (B) to the upside to correct all the downtrend from January 2022 high. Price is likely to ungoing the last leg up of this upside correction. Low volumes and over entusiasm about the soft landing narrative suggest us that this rally can go up to 4300+ before reversing, but we do not take higher highs as our base case.
However, price arrived at a big resistance, with the blue wlfe wave still valid, and managed to exhaust the upside steam creating multiple divergences e lower lows. Also, VIX seems to be about to breakout a bullish wolfe wave :
We sometimes get insights by looking at VVIX, which is the same algorithm of the Vix applied to the VIX itself:
Here we can see that VVIX already broke out, suggesting bullishness for the VIX and bearishness for the index.
We are therefore short from @4152. Our stop loss is already placed on entry. Our first target is 3940, we will re evaluate the price action if we get there.
Breaking 4090 confirms more downside.
Happy trading!
Trade active
VIX at gap! closing and rejecting or breakout??
Note
vix breakout!sp broke 4090
target 3975
Trade active
Trade active
ww target = 3940
wave B target=3975
Adam &Eve top target 3999
1.618a=c target 4009
target area -> 3940-4009
Trade active
Trade active
micro count unclear but the wolfe wave requires a leg more down.
Added short @4126 stop loss on average entry @4139.4
Trade active
position fro 4126 closed on entry yesterday. Holding the original short from @4152 with stop loss on entry
Note
spike up kicked us on entry, however vix is retesting trendline, sp stopped at 4175. CPI higher then expected. Short from @4161.1Trade active
stop loss on entry 4161.1
Note
updated EW count
Trade closed manually
Downside may be concluded. Bullish dbw active. This can be wave 5 of C. We closed our short at 4121.3 for small gain of 0.4%Trade active
DBW failed. Holding short from @4127.5 target area 3940-4009
Trade closed: target reached
5 wave structure for wave c. This can be about to complete and looks a corrective structure. Taking profits at @4039 after lower low. Will monitor the price action and post new setups in next posts. Total profit: 2.1% of equity
Note
target box reached, will update here
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