USD/JPY: 50% Retracement in Play

Sep 3

Arif Husain, the head of fixed income at T. Rowe, is cautioning that volatility threatens the Japanese yen. Husain suggests that the yen carry trade has been unfairly blamed for what may actually be the onset of a larger, more complex trend. The Bank of Japan’s monetary tightening and its broader impact on global capital flows are intricate issues. A significant amount of Japanese capital invested overseas could potentially be repatriated as domestic interest rates rise.

Adding to the yen’s momentum, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed on Tuesday that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if economic and inflationary conditions align with its expectations. This statement further bolstered the yen's strength.

As the U.S. trading session begins, USD/JPY is testing the 50% retracement level of the August range. The pair may continue to face downward pressure due to the BoJ’s hawkish stance, even amid the general strength of the U.S. dollar in the broader market.