BUY $YEN @ 107 PRICE & SD VOL RESISTANCE LEVEL
Yen dropped 150 pips following the $ employment report and I for one am confused...
I had assumed JPY had been acting as a Risk-Off function against the FED hike e,g, yen had been falling to these levels as the fed hiking risk caused safety flows into JPY... turns out this may not be the case.
The market has absorbed the emp report at dovish, UJ shedding 150 pips, i actually expected JPY to weaken on a bad $ report as i expected risk-off money flows (that had been giving the jpy strength) to leave the yen as the chance of a hike in june is reduced and people looked to take more risk.
The reaction we got was actually the opposite, the market priced the poor NFP like every other CCY, and USD weakened..
The play from here imp is still the same though, I still like buying USD against the JPY as monetary policy divergence is strife and JPY just seems to be expensive atm.
JPY is even more expensive now that the probability of a fed hike is reduced, so there should be less "risk off" money in the ccy.
I will engage in my long JPY at the support level of 107, where both price and 2SD volatility provide a high probability of a retracement back up.
Buy limits placed at 107.050, 106.9, 106.4 106.2 - Spread risk out incase of further downside - bet on the idea NOT the single price
I had assumed JPY had been acting as a Risk-Off function against the FED hike e,g, yen had been falling to these levels as the fed hiking risk caused safety flows into JPY... turns out this may not be the case.
The market has absorbed the emp report at dovish, UJ shedding 150 pips, i actually expected JPY to weaken on a bad $ report as i expected risk-off money flows (that had been giving the jpy strength) to leave the yen as the chance of a hike in june is reduced and people looked to take more risk.
The reaction we got was actually the opposite, the market priced the poor NFP like every other CCY, and USD weakened..
The play from here imp is still the same though, I still like buying USD against the JPY as monetary policy divergence is strife and JPY just seems to be expensive atm.
JPY is even more expensive now that the probability of a fed hike is reduced, so there should be less "risk off" money in the ccy.
I will engage in my long JPY at the support level of 107, where both price and 2SD volatility provide a high probability of a retracement back up.
Buy limits placed at 107.050, 106.9, 106.4 106.2 - Spread risk out incase of further downside - bet on the idea NOT the single price
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