Short USDJPY, Daily chart, Bearish channel re-entry, resistance.
Updated
This idea is also related to a 4 hourly chart I have linked below, showing bearish candlestick price action currently active, respecting the major resistance / previous price low / pivot area. Recently President Trump announced his budget, but this was not enough to push the USD above the major inflection point. In fact the pair appears to be taking major resistance below it and the previous bearish channel it has re-entered. Both fundamentals and technicals appear to be giving bearish signals.
If the pair re-enters this bearish channel there might be some major falls to come. I have the entry as 111.968 with 400 ticks Stop loss at 112.368 and take profit of 6000 ticks at 105.968. This yields a risk reward ratio of 15:1. If the price moves 400 or 800 ticks, I would move the stop loss to the entry price. This all depends on the price action or other movements.
If the price moves strongly upwards, then the USD might resume major strength, therefore my Stop is quite small.
If the pair re-enters this bearish channel there might be some major falls to come. I have the entry as 111.968 with 400 ticks Stop loss at 112.368 and take profit of 6000 ticks at 105.968. This yields a risk reward ratio of 15:1. If the price moves 400 or 800 ticks, I would move the stop loss to the entry price. This all depends on the price action or other movements.
If the price moves strongly upwards, then the USD might resume major strength, therefore my Stop is quite small.
Trade active
The price has moved in our favour with a move around 800 ticks. I'm positioning my stop loss at my entry price to remove risk ahead of US GDP due at 12:30 GMT today. Should the GDP surprise to the upside we will have no risk. If GDP is as expected or weaker it may add to the further weakening of this pair.I keep the full position in line with the original take profit price I have placed.
Thanks for following my updates.
Note
The price action has returned back to and slightly broken through the top channel resistance. There may be opportunities to increase position size here as the trend of lower highs is still in place. We need to watch very closely now if the price resumes movement within the channel resistance or if it breaks through. I plan on creating a new USDJPY chart analysis soon to look for opportunities to add or enter short this position.Trade active
I am still in this trade. I may adjust the take profit, pending future moves. My risk is still nil.
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