I’m just revising my previous idea. My view for a pullback has not changed. On the 4h the MACD looks set to cross to a sell signal while we still have a degree of bearish divergence on the RSI. A break below 18.35 will allow the rand to pull the pair lower towards the 23.6 Fibo rate at 18.10. I do however expect some support in the range between 18.17 and 18.22.
The longer-term move towards the parallel channel neckline and blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.83 (as per my previous idea) still seems probable given the overbought status of the dollar across the board. I however do not see the rand pulling the pair below 17.83-17.87 at this stage.
The longer-term move towards the parallel channel neckline and blue 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 17.83 (as per my previous idea) still seems probable given the overbought status of the dollar across the board. I however do not see the rand pulling the pair below 17.83-17.87 at this stage.
Comment:
The pair is finding some support in the zone around 18.10. The DXY (dollar index) is still pulling back which has me confident that we will still hit the TP zone around 17.90. There's no NFP's report so I'm expecting a rather muted US session today. A data catalyst may be need to pull the pair into the desired TP zone.
Comment:
US10yields are also pulling back which is positive for risk-on sentiment and the rand.
