WTI OIL 1st 4H Death Cross in 7 months. Will it turn bearish?

Apr 29

WTI Oil (USOIL) made a solid (Higher) Low at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern and started rising as we discussed on our previous idea (April 22, see chart below):

We now need to take it a time-frame lower to 4H as on Friday the market formed the first 4H Death Cross (4H MA50 crossing below the 4H MA200) in almost 7 months (since October 10 2023). This has the capacity to invalidate the current 4-month bullish trend but only if Oil closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).

As long as it doesn't, we remain bullish on WTI, targeting 94.00, which is at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up and marginally below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous Higher High peaked.

At the same time, this is where the the previous Channel Up of July - September 2023 made the symmetrical Higher High, relative to the current proportion. As you can see, there is a strong degree of symmetry between the two fractals, even in terms of RSI, with the only notable difference (which as mentioned can be critical), being the 4H Death Cross.

If the price does close that 1D candle below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss on the buy and go short instead, targeting 78.00 (just above Support 1).

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