PREPWORK FOR 9/30 FINAL DRAFT (DRAFT 4)
HEADER - This is the last of 4 drafts for 10/01-10/13 trade. The first 2 were very long. The last two super short.
SUMMARY - So I don't have anymore time to deliver something that's significantly better than this. So this is it.
DETAILS - See previous 3 drafts linked below for how we got here.
STRATEGY - Pick a spot and short. Then rinse and repeat all the way to 1635 by 10/13.
NOTES - As usual, will add with time.
SUMMARY - So I don't have anymore time to deliver something that's significantly better than this. So this is it.
DETAILS - See previous 3 drafts linked below for how we got here.
STRATEGY - Pick a spot and short. Then rinse and repeat all the way to 1635 by 10/13.
NOTES - As usual, will add with time.
Comment:
10) this chart at top is not meant to be as strong as a performer DRAFT 1 was (for its first 6 boxes)
11) think of it as a more general guide for 1635 target
12) after Wednesday morning, bears will give up the ghost
11) think of it as a more general guide for 1635 target
12) after Wednesday morning, bears will give up the ghost
Comment:
13) for those just joing us, here is quick review:
a) on 9/12 I published PREPWORK for 9/30 which was strong for its first 6 boxes or until 9/22
b) on 9/26 I published DRAFT 2, in which I said in the notes "may die before it even gets started"
c) yestereday I published generic DRAFT 3 expecting 1635 on 10/13 and tried to explain a bit of why
d) and now we are at DRAFT 4 and FINAL DRAFT, this is for next 15 day s of price action through 10/13
a) on 9/12 I published PREPWORK for 9/30 which was strong for its first 6 boxes or until 9/22
b) on 9/26 I published DRAFT 2, in which I said in the notes "may die before it even gets started"
c) yestereday I published generic DRAFT 3 expecting 1635 on 10/13 and tried to explain a bit of why
d) and now we are at DRAFT 4 and FINAL DRAFT, this is for next 15 day s of price action through 10/13
Comment:
14) there are a total of 15 boxes
15) bc of the size of the move in such a short span, more detailing is unpractical
16) I expect to hit the majority of the 15 boxes, let's say 13 to be safe
15) bc of the size of the move in such a short span, more detailing is unpractical
16) I expect to hit the majority of the 15 boxes, let's say 13 to be safe
Comment:
9/28 WRAP UP 12:42 PM ET
1) so it's 1865.xx
2) there are two routes to 1845 give or take
3) the 1st one where it makes by 4 PM ET
4) the 2nd one where it zig zag huge and makes it 10-11 PM ET
5) the 1st one IMPLIES a hard bounce to 1872-1879 for Friday
6) in which case, that would be a short
7) the 2nd one implies a slower bounce to 1875-ish for Sunday night to Monday morning
8) in which case, that would be another short
9) have a good one and see you tomorrow
1) so it's 1865.xx
2) there are two routes to 1845 give or take
3) the 1st one where it makes by 4 PM ET
4) the 2nd one where it zig zag huge and makes it 10-11 PM ET
5) the 1st one IMPLIES a hard bounce to 1872-1879 for Friday
6) in which case, that would be a short
7) the 2nd one implies a slower bounce to 1875-ish for Sunday night to Monday morning
8) in which case, that would be another short
9) have a good one and see you tomorrow
Comment:
10) 12:51 PM ET, if price does not make 1845-ish before midnight
11) the 1635 target "begins" to disappear
12) even if it makes it before markets open Friday...
13) it would probably take 1635 off the table and next one up is 17000
14) BUT IF IT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MIDNIGHT... IT IS ON IN A BIG WAY
11) the 1635 target "begins" to disappear
12) even if it makes it before markets open Friday...
13) it would probably take 1635 off the table and next one up is 17000
14) BUT IF IT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE MIDNIGHT... IT IS ON IN A BIG WAY
Comment:
15) as of this very second, price is implying 1845 by 2:15 PM ET
Comment:
16) 1:21 PM ET MISSED THAT WINDOW
17) by extension, missing 4 PM window too
18) so now its 10-11 PM ET
17) by extension, missing 4 PM window too
18) so now its 10-11 PM ET
Comment:
19) 8:35 PM ET, 1866.XX not looking like 1840s tonight
20) bulls have a setup going for 1882 next
21) I doubt they do it
22) I still expect 1840s next, obviously moved forward 12 hours
23) this changes 1635 target to 1700 for now
24) but I still see this moving back to 1635 later
25) bc my reasons for that target remain valid
20) bulls have a setup going for 1882 next
21) I doubt they do it
22) I still expect 1840s next, obviously moved forward 12 hours
23) this changes 1635 target to 1700 for now
24) but I still see this moving back to 1635 later
25) bc my reasons for that target remain valid
Comment:
26) minutes later...
27) the window for 1845 before midnight remains open as of this second
28) we will know soon if it takes that path
27) the window for 1845 before midnight remains open as of this second
28) we will know soon if it takes that path
Comment:
8:33 AM ET 1868.XX wants 1887-1890 today to Sunday night
1) should move up more now that it broke the first 2 trend lines
2) entry end of day or Sunday night
1) should move up more now that it broke the first 2 trend lines
2) entry end of day or Sunday night
Comment:
3) 9:27 AM ET 1875.xx from 1879.xx high moments ago
4) I don't think the move is done
5) it's a decent spike so momentum is shooting for 1992-1993 in 150 min or roughly by noon ET
6) I am obviously aware that I need a DRAFT 5
7) but I am not going to do a DRAFT 5, I am going to do a new series w/ continuously binary outcomes
8) it really is the only way
9) do I still see 1700?
10) I still see 1750 at this point
4) I don't think the move is done
5) it's a decent spike so momentum is shooting for 1992-1993 in 150 min or roughly by noon ET
6) I am obviously aware that I need a DRAFT 5
7) but I am not going to do a DRAFT 5, I am going to do a new series w/ continuously binary outcomes
8) it really is the only way
9) do I still see 1700?
10) I still see 1750 at this point
Comment:
11) 10:07 AM ET 1966.XX
12) breaking under 1967 means 1957 and maybe more
12) breaking under 1967 means 1957 and maybe more
Comment:
13) 10:09 AM ET, ,1862.XX
14) first typos on 11) and 12) 18 handle not 19 handle
15) second, so targets are 1857, 1851, and 1847, and 1845
16) same as yesterday,
17) way slower than anticipated
14) first typos on 11) and 12) 18 handle not 19 handle
15) second, so targets are 1857, 1851, and 1847, and 1845
16) same as yesterday,
17) way slower than anticipated
Comment:
18) sorry about this one, I should've watched more carefully
19) but this one was hard to spot anyway
20) in theory, until 1867 broke and held for a few minutes
22) 1889 was still more likely than 1845 counting just today
19) but this one was hard to spot anyway
20) in theory, until 1867 broke and held for a few minutes
22) 1889 was still more likely than 1845 counting just today
Comment:
23) 10:25 AM ET, so first, let me show why I was expecting 1887-1890 when I wrote a note at 8:33 AM ET:
Comment:
24) for chart above:
25) so all the the circles or ellipses are "major crossovers for this zone", where intermediate (think 35 vs 70 vs 140 days) shorter trends (periods = 1x, 1.2x, 1.4x. 1.6x, 1.8x) crosses longer trends (periods = 2x, 2.4x, 2.8x, 3.2x, 3.6x)
26) last night when I saw that 1840s was not going to hit even by 8-9 AM...
27) I did this map to figure out why it was slow
28) so the area where the circles are accumulated there should be some mean reversion to be expected "should the very short trends on 4 minute bars form)
29) so hence, this morning the form called for 1887-1890
30) so when it hit 1879.xx and fell to 1870, the logical call was still 1890-1892
31) not until 1867 broke and held for a minutes was it logical to call 1857 (yesterday's low)
32) so in the chart above, that's orange path vs blue path
33) the square is where vol limits say today should hit, so a bit lower than yesterday
34) so yesterday 1843-1847, today 1841-1845
35) what this means is that sellers are real and the money is going lower
36) but teh circles/ elllipses at top ARE STILL TRUE
37) so that means in a scenario of going down... it's going to zig zag quite a bit until
twe are past the cirlces
25) so all the the circles or ellipses are "major crossovers for this zone", where intermediate (think 35 vs 70 vs 140 days) shorter trends (periods = 1x, 1.2x, 1.4x. 1.6x, 1.8x) crosses longer trends (periods = 2x, 2.4x, 2.8x, 3.2x, 3.6x)
26) last night when I saw that 1840s was not going to hit even by 8-9 AM...
27) I did this map to figure out why it was slow
28) so the area where the circles are accumulated there should be some mean reversion to be expected "should the very short trends on 4 minute bars form)
29) so hence, this morning the form called for 1887-1890
30) so when it hit 1879.xx and fell to 1870, the logical call was still 1890-1892
31) not until 1867 broke and held for a minutes was it logical to call 1857 (yesterday's low)
32) so in the chart above, that's orange path vs blue path
33) the square is where vol limits say today should hit, so a bit lower than yesterday
34) so yesterday 1843-1847, today 1841-1845
35) what this means is that sellers are real and the money is going lower
36) but teh circles/ elllipses at top ARE STILL TRUE
37) so that means in a scenario of going down... it's going to zig zag quite a bit until
twe are past the cirlces
Comment:
38) so now, 10:36 AM 159.70 as I type
39) so a while a go, I said starting 10/01-10/13 I would provide 20 hours a day of continuous coverage
40) bc only that way can I catch all the swings right before they happen
41) especially at 50/50 moments
42) I will say that I when said that, I thought 1840s would hit before today (10-11 PM ET last night), implying 1635 is on the table
43) so now w/o going to 1887-1890, but still closing 1840s today, 1700 on the table
44) anything higher than 1857 would mean 1750
45) so that's a wrap for today
39) so a while a go, I said starting 10/01-10/13 I would provide 20 hours a day of continuous coverage
40) bc only that way can I catch all the swings right before they happen
41) especially at 50/50 moments
42) I will say that I when said that, I thought 1840s would hit before today (10-11 PM ET last night), implying 1635 is on the table
43) so now w/o going to 1887-1890, but still closing 1840s today, 1700 on the table
44) anything higher than 1857 would mean 1750
45) so that's a wrap for today
Comment:
46) FWIW, we are 2 for 2 boxes at top, on target to hit 4 of first 5 boxes
47) until there's a massive difference in the curves, I will not make a new draft for binary situations, when we need a new one we will go binary next with 2-way generic boxes
47) until there's a massive difference in the curves, I will not make a new draft for binary situations, when we need a new one we will go binary next with 2-way generic boxes
Comment:
48) so for the rest of today these are the lines in play:
Comment:
49) zooming in to 15 second bars (you need premium for 5, 10, 15 second bars):
Comment:
50) so whether or not it breaks the trend line from 1979, it's still favored to 1845-ish by 1-2 PM ET.
51) if it breaks above that box...
51) if it breaks above that box...
Comment:
52) or basically the top trend line
53) then it's still favored for a 1857 close.
53) then it's still favored for a 1857 close.
Comment:
54) that's it, see you before Sunday opens at 6 PM ET
Comment:
55) something to consider at 11:05 AM ET, I just saw ICD/ICE XAUUSD ticker bid/ask hit 1857.3x, that's lower than yesterday's 1857.5? or .6?, yeah...
56) and the second of two trend lines in chart right above this has resitance at 1858.7 or something like that
57) so hold 1857 for a whil here, that's a good sign for 1845 for today, that's all I'm saying
56) and the second of two trend lines in chart right above this has resitance at 1858.7 or something like that
57) so hold 1857 for a whil here, that's a good sign for 1845 for today, that's all I'm saying
Comment:
58) 11:55 AM ET, so that line from 1879.xx broke after bottom at 1852.xx
59) now 1855.xx heading for 1862.xx and then back down
59) now 1855.xx heading for 1862.xx and then back down
Comment:
60) obviously need 1857 before 1862
61) reminder that heading up in a bearish trend doesn't mean getting there
61) reminder that heading up in a bearish trend doesn't mean getting there
Comment:
62) 12:05 PM ET, yup, doesn't look like it now after failing at 1855.xx
63) I'm out
63) I'm out
Comment:
64) 12:15 PM ET, 1853.33 last note: 5 second bars say 1845 by 1 PM ET
65) take that for what you will, use a straight line or something, like this:
65) take that for what you will, use a straight line or something, like this:
Comment:
66)
67) for chart above:
68) if it breaks that dashed line (for example I mean)
69) that's how I trade live
68) if it breaks that dashed line (for example I mean)
69) that's how I trade live
Comment:
70) 1:56 PM ET FINALLY 1849.XX
71) 15 hours too late to keep 1635 as a legit target
72) 1700 it is for now
71) 15 hours too late to keep 1635 as a legit target
72) 1700 it is for now
Comment:
9/29 7:06 PM ET
1) so here's what I think I know now
2) first, this zone from now to next Wednesday's ADP report 7:30 AM ET
3) is mostly sideways
4) so if you replay chart at top, it should hit next 3 boxes for 5 of 5
5) so the zone is like this
1) so here's what I think I know now
2) first, this zone from now to next Wednesday's ADP report 7:30 AM ET
3) is mostly sideways
4) so if you replay chart at top, it should hit next 3 boxes for 5 of 5
5) so the zone is like this
Comment:
Comment:
6) for chart above:
7) first that 1879 or basically 1880 area, will get attacked at least once more time
8) as many as 4 times
9) whichever the case, short it EVERY SINGLE TIME IT GETS THERE
10) in reality it should slope a little bit like this:
7) first that 1879 or basically 1880 area, will get attacked at least once more time
8) as many as 4 times
9) whichever the case, short it EVERY SINGLE TIME IT GETS THERE
10) in reality it should slope a little bit like this:
Comment:
Comment:
11) for chart above:
12) it should onlyh drop under 1843 1 time IF IT DOES
13) and if it does, it would be Mon night into Tuesday
14) and around 1828-1834, in that cirlce
12) it should onlyh drop under 1843 1 time IF IT DOES
13) and if it does, it would be Mon night into Tuesday
14) and around 1828-1834, in that cirlce
Comment:
15) we should get to 1810-1815 Wednesday night into Thursday
Comment:
16) that's the expectation 10/01 through 10/04
17) if there's any major change, to this pattern
18) we should know by Sunday midnight into Monday
19) what would that change be?
20) that change would be falling under right at Sunday open, and continuously dropping to 1835 by 10 PM ET Sunday night
21) this scenario is not in the trend at all
22) the trend says straight back up to 1874-1879 again by 2AM ET Monday, then smack down
23) BUT SUNDAY OPEN SOMETIMES DO STRANGE THINGS W/O WARNING
17) if there's any major change, to this pattern
18) we should know by Sunday midnight into Monday
19) what would that change be?
20) that change would be falling under right at Sunday open, and continuously dropping to 1835 by 10 PM ET Sunday night
21) this scenario is not in the trend at all
22) the trend says straight back up to 1874-1879 again by 2AM ET Monday, then smack down
23) BUT SUNDAY OPEN SOMETIMES DO STRANGE THINGS W/O WARNING
Comment:
9/30 IS HERE. 1:32 AM ET.
24) continuing with "STRANGE THINGS W/O WARNING"...
25) I'll be brief
26) wave reconciliation is calling for 1800 within 24 hours of Sunday open
27) and 1760 w/in 48 hours
28) so its 1800 on Monday and 1765 on Tuesday
29) I can't confirm right now what that means...
30) but I know three things after Friday's 1848 close for bear targets
31) the max move to 10/03 is 1765 (this Tuesday)
32) the min move to to 10/13 is 1765 (two Fridays from now)
33) the max move to 10/13 is 1635
24) continuing with "STRANGE THINGS W/O WARNING"...
25) I'll be brief
26) wave reconciliation is calling for 1800 within 24 hours of Sunday open
27) and 1760 w/in 48 hours
28) so its 1800 on Monday and 1765 on Tuesday
29) I can't confirm right now what that means...
30) but I know three things after Friday's 1848 close for bear targets
31) the max move to 10/03 is 1765 (this Tuesday)
32) the min move to to 10/13 is 1765 (two Fridays from now)
33) the max move to 10/13 is 1635
Comment:
34) 9/30 2:18 AM ET
35) ok... PLAN A IS MAX BEAR, it has to be until disproven...
36) that makes SIDEWAYS TO WEDNESDAY ADP ... and THEN goes down, all that scenario is PLAN B
37) so again MONDAY 1800-1805
38) that makes TUESDAY 1765-1775
39) obviously there's an in-between bounce from MONDAY LOW TO TUESDAY LOW
40) let's call that 1825-ish, that bounce Monday night into Tuesday AM
41) THIS IS PLAN A
42) bc of the nature of the fast moving price action
43) there's not enough time to chart everything bc I also have to focus on my execution of my own personal trades
35) ok... PLAN A IS MAX BEAR, it has to be until disproven...
36) that makes SIDEWAYS TO WEDNESDAY ADP ... and THEN goes down, all that scenario is PLAN B
37) so again MONDAY 1800-1805
38) that makes TUESDAY 1765-1775
39) obviously there's an in-between bounce from MONDAY LOW TO TUESDAY LOW
40) let's call that 1825-ish, that bounce Monday night into Tuesday AM
41) THIS IS PLAN A
42) bc of the nature of the fast moving price action
43) there's not enough time to chart everything bc I also have to focus on my execution of my own personal trades
Comment:
44) hence, live, there's going to be lots of lots of notes like this
Comment:
45) with added charts whenever I can
Comment:
46) I hit wrong button w/ that "trade closed, stop reached" comment
Comment:
47) FWIW, here is all our applicable bollingers location:
Comment:
48) that's why PLAN B makes sense
49) but I learned a long time ago that, wave angle reconciliation takes priority over BB's
50) so MAX BEAR IT IS
51) obviously making 1765-1775 by Tuesday (10/03) night would obviously mean 1635 is on the table for 10/13
49) but I learned a long time ago that, wave angle reconciliation takes priority over BB's
50) so MAX BEAR IT IS
51) obviously making 1765-1775 by Tuesday (10/03) night would obviously mean 1635 is on the table for 10/13
Comment:
52) how do we know when it's 50/50?
53) that moment will arrive late Sunday night
54) in theory, we open 1848.xx and price should move up first...
53) that moment will arrive late Sunday night
54) in theory, we open 1848.xx and price should move up first...
Comment:
55) we watch for 1852, 1857, and 1862.5
56) I think 1857 will hold and we swing down HARD
57) if 1857-1862 is neutral 50/50 zone, we have to wait for a decision
58) over 1863 PLAN B would be likely
59) I already wrote about that yesterday
56) I think 1857 will hold and we swing down HARD
57) if 1857-1862 is neutral 50/50 zone, we have to wait for a decision
58) over 1863 PLAN B would be likely
59) I already wrote about that yesterday
Comment:
60) so that's a wrap for 9/30
61) I am convinced it should be PLAN A, hard and fast
62) 1800-05 on Monday, 1825-ish Monday night into Tuesday, and 1765-1775 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM... that should be closer... and ADP Wed morning will start a dead cat bounce so we can short Friday's NFP jobs report
63) nevertheless, when it's live, it's live..
64) so always be ready for changes, that is the nature of these things
61) I am convinced it should be PLAN A, hard and fast
62) 1800-05 on Monday, 1825-ish Monday night into Tuesday, and 1765-1775 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM... that should be closer... and ADP Wed morning will start a dead cat bounce so we can short Friday's NFP jobs report
63) nevertheless, when it's live, it's live..
64) so always be ready for changes, that is the nature of these things
Comment:
65) BTW, if you are serious about trading ...
66) don't use just one or two trend lines... they are meaningless unless you have a lot so you can actually see something
67) for context, this is the current set for this short:
66) don't use just one or two trend lines... they are meaningless unless you have a lot so you can actually see something
67) for context, this is the current set for this short:
Comment:
68) so PLAN A 4-min chart look like this:
Comment:
69) good night...
70) and get ready to make real money this week
70) and get ready to make real money this week
Comment:
9/30, 9:20 PM ET, CONSIDER THIS POST (REPLAY IT):
Comment:
1) for chart above:
2) so this was a binary chart from July 11th, 80 days ago
3) it chose bull FIRST, but evolved to bear
4) so this week, we are going to get 1750-1775 low
2) so this was a binary chart from July 11th, 80 days ago
3) it chose bull FIRST, but evolved to bear
4) so this week, we are going to get 1750-1775 low
Comment:
5) this was how I realized quickly after 1890 gave out that we are heading massively lower
6) in this post, price hit first 3 bull boxes but 5 of first 7 bear boxes
6) in this post, price hit first 3 bull boxes but 5 of first 7 bear boxes
Comment:
7) this reconfirmed for me this week's bearish bias
8) but it also put into much much doubt that we would get 1635 by 10/13
8) but it also put into much much doubt that we would get 1635 by 10/13
Comment:
10/01 5:54 PM ET, 6 MINUTES UNTIL SUNDAY OPEN
1) so here's what I think I know now
2) the latest information I have says the next 6 hours are absolutely critical
3) if bears get control, and selling gets heavy ..
4) we can see 1805 tonight
5) furthermore, there's an outside chance we can so to 1767... all tonight
6) there's a number of scenarios that exist within the first 30 minutes of open
7) but the most likely one remains bounce to 1857 before the selling starts hard
1) so here's what I think I know now
2) the latest information I have says the next 6 hours are absolutely critical
3) if bears get control, and selling gets heavy ..
4) we can see 1805 tonight
5) furthermore, there's an outside chance we can so to 1767... all tonight
6) there's a number of scenarios that exist within the first 30 minutes of open
7) but the most likely one remains bounce to 1857 before the selling starts hard
Comment:
10/01 6:09 PM ET, 1847.74....
8) so from 10-sec bars... take that FWIWm,
9) says if bulls intend to take this to 1852, 1855, 1857, and ultimately 1862...
10) they have maybe 25 minutes to do it
8) so from 10-sec bars... take that FWIWm,
9) says if bulls intend to take this to 1852, 1855, 1857, and ultimately 1862...
10) they have maybe 25 minutes to do it
Comment:
11) no, maybe 15 minutes, or maybe just 13 minutes
12) basically they have to 6:25 PM ET to do something
13) I've already started shorting bc 10-sec bars are starting to say this bounce is not going to happen
12) basically they have to 6:25 PM ET to do something
13) I've already started shorting bc 10-sec bars are starting to say this bounce is not going to happen
Comment:
14) 6:20 PM ET, I gotta get in my car
15) we should see things moving down in about 5-10 min
15) we should see things moving down in about 5-10 min
Comment:
16) 6:27 PM ET, 1848.24
17) 10-sec bars say it has begun
18) bulls have until 7:05 PM ET to get this under 1844 or we have to start reconsidering a different path down
19) that would just imply another way to 1852, 1855, 1857, etc...
20) but at 6:29 PM ET, the plan is down, straight down and first legit pause/bounce 1805
17) 10-sec bars say it has begun
18) bulls have until 7:05 PM ET to get this under 1844 or we have to start reconsidering a different path down
19) that would just imply another way to 1852, 1855, 1857, etc...
20) but at 6:29 PM ET, the plan is down, straight down and first legit pause/bounce 1805
Comment:
21) 6:46 PM ET 1846.102
Comment:
22) even though it's just a 2.5 pt move from 1848.6...
23) ooh now 1845.74
24) even though it can seem trivial if you're not leveraged
25) it's lower than Friday's low... and that's a BIG DEAL for status quo plans to see 1805 in hours
23) ooh now 1845.74
24) even though it can seem trivial if you're not leveraged
25) it's lower than Friday's low... and that's a BIG DEAL for status quo plans to see 1805 in hours
Comment:
26) we need to get under 1844 by 7:05 or maybe 7:10 PM
27) that's only 11-16 minutes away
28) and we're 1846.88 now
29) here's why under 1844 and holding matters a GREAT DEAL, but really RIGHT NOW
30) consider this chart:
27) that's only 11-16 minutes away
28) and we're 1846.88 now
29) here's why under 1844 and holding matters a GREAT DEAL, but really RIGHT NOW
30) consider this chart:
Comment:
31) for chart above:
32) that's all the moving down since 1947 right before FOMC, remember?
33) so what regressions are saying now...
34) is that breaking under that line and holding for 10-15 minutes...will bring cascading selling to 1805, followed by bounce to maybe 1825-1828 and then 1767
32) that's all the moving down since 1947 right before FOMC, remember?
33) so what regressions are saying now...
34) is that breaking under that line and holding for 10-15 minutes...will bring cascading selling to 1805, followed by bounce to maybe 1825-1828 and then 1767
Comment:
35) so 1805 is obvious bc:
Comment:
36) 1767, I'm not quite sure why in chart above...
37) but number crunching various angles and methods...
38) this number keeps coming up over and over
37) but number crunching various angles and methods...
38) this number keeps coming up over and over
Comment:
39) 7:07 PM ET 1846.84
40) bulls missed first big window already
41) now we are in limbo for 10, maybe 15 min
40) bulls missed first big window already
41) now we are in limbo for 10, maybe 15 min
Comment:
42) 7:23 PM ET, second and maybe last window for bears to make fireworks tonight
43) this window has opened but will not be long
43) this window has opened but will not be long
Comment:
44) 7:25 1846.19 as I type
45) bears have 10-15 minutes to go under 1844 again
46) but this time, 10-sec bars say, if they hesitate...
47) bulls will bring it up 1848 again
45) bears have 10-15 minutes to go under 1844 again
46) but this time, 10-sec bars say, if they hesitate...
47) bulls will bring it up 1848 again
Comment:
48) 8:13 PM ET.... 1848.30 and a bit more minutes ago
49) now what?
50) first the obvious, all the fireworks tonight... not happening
51) so where to next?
49) now what?
50) first the obvious, all the fireworks tonight... not happening
51) so where to next?
Comment:
52) earlier, I said it would imply going to 1852, 55, 57, etc....
53) I don't see that yet
54) my models also say that whatever bulls may do, the bear momentum shoould overtake in a big way starting in about 7 hours, so 3 AM ET Monday
55) so my PLAN A from yesterday... for 1800-1805 on Monday stands strong
56) now the question is what happens for the next 7 hours
57) and right now at 8:18 PM ET, 1847.58, it's not clear
58) bulls have formed another setup for a shot all the way to 1879, but it's not really logical bc they gave up a bettter one 2 hours ago
53) I don't see that yet
54) my models also say that whatever bulls may do, the bear momentum shoould overtake in a big way starting in about 7 hours, so 3 AM ET Monday
55) so my PLAN A from yesterday... for 1800-1805 on Monday stands strong
56) now the question is what happens for the next 7 hours
57) and right now at 8:18 PM ET, 1847.58, it's not clear
58) bulls have formed another setup for a shot all the way to 1879, but it's not really logical bc they gave up a bettter one 2 hours ago
Comment:
59) 8:26 PM ET, still 1848.02 and not going anywhere quickly right now
60) so first, the odds favor slowly drifting to 1838-ish before getting rugpulled around 3AM ET
61) this pattern does not favor a spike over 1850
60) so first, the odds favor slowly drifting to 1838-ish before getting rugpulled around 3AM ET
61) this pattern does not favor a spike over 1850
Comment:
62) so at 8:31 PM ET & 1847.54 I got a HARD STOP for my shorts at 1848.85
63) bc it really should not bump past that anymore tonight
64) if it does, I can wait it out re short at a different spot
63) bc it really should not bump past that anymore tonight
64) if it does, I can wait it out re short at a different spot
Comment:
65) 8:38 PM ET, 1846.37
66) I can't be excited about it moving down more this time, even if it does
67) for several reasons
68) first, prices don't move in a straight line EXCEPT WHEN THEY DO
69) so there are spots that REALLY FAVOR 1 direction, the spot now is not as favorable as it was earlier
70) that just means I would expect mini "staircases" down, instead of continuously down
66) I can't be excited about it moving down more this time, even if it does
67) for several reasons
68) first, prices don't move in a straight line EXCEPT WHEN THEY DO
69) so there are spots that REALLY FAVOR 1 direction, the spot now is not as favorable as it was earlier
70) that just means I would expect mini "staircases" down, instead of continuously down
Comment:
71) and as time passes, certain important levels change
72) earllier, if we hit 1844 and hold, then it would've been something to watch
73) now, it's 1845.73...
74) but that 1844 level now has moved to 1842.5 or a bit less
72) earllier, if we hit 1844 and hold, then it would've been something to watch
73) now, it's 1845.73...
74) but that 1844 level now has moved to 1842.5 or a bit less
Comment:
75) 8:49 PM ET, 1845.xx
76) I have to step away for a bit
77) I moved my stop to 1847.75
78) there's a case to be made for 1830 in 250 minutes, so basically midnight
79) we will see later but in the mean time...
80) don't go long this move, it's just how much bearish we should be
76) I have to step away for a bit
77) I moved my stop to 1847.75
78) there's a case to be made for 1830 in 250 minutes, so basically midnight
79) we will see later but in the mean time...
80) don't go long this move, it's just how much bearish we should be
Comment:
81) if you trade often, then trail stops
82) in confusing moments, just remember you can always pick a different spot
82) in confusing moments, just remember you can always pick a different spot
Comment:
83) 9:23 PM ET 1845.XX still
84) so yeah.. 1830 at midnight... probably not
84) so yeah.. 1830 at midnight... probably not
Comment:
85) but that level I said was 1844 and now it's 1842.5, I read that wrong
86) now it's 1843, at midnight it will be 1842
87) but regressions saying pretty strongly that we get under that line at about 1840-41
88) that would be like 12:30 AM ET...
89) then it should drop faster
86) now it's 1843, at midnight it will be 1842
87) but regressions saying pretty strongly that we get under that line at about 1840-41
88) that would be like 12:30 AM ET...
89) then it should drop faster
Comment:
90) but trail your stops
91) that route to 1880 is still live and pushing 1885
92) this means that at 1845... prices are indicating one of two things is coming soon
93) 1885 or 1805, +/- 40, regressions say 1805
94) regressions also say becareful, bc it can change
91) that route to 1880 is still live and pushing 1885
92) this means that at 1845... prices are indicating one of two things is coming soon
93) 1885 or 1805, +/- 40, regressions say 1805
94) regressions also say becareful, bc it can change
Comment:
95) I'm taking a break for a bit
Comment:
96) 11:31 PM ET.. 1843.XX
97) price reaction at 1842.8 was disappointing
98) especially last 30 min
99) we are not closer to a move down...
100) bull odds have gone down
101) but bear odds have also gone down, just not as much
102) so what odds have gone up?
103) sideways to nowhere odds have gone up somewhat
104) bears need to get under 1841.5 quickly to maintain upper hand
105) otherwise we would need a time stop along with price stop
97) price reaction at 1842.8 was disappointing
98) especially last 30 min
99) we are not closer to a move down...
100) bull odds have gone down
101) but bear odds have also gone down, just not as much
102) so what odds have gone up?
103) sideways to nowhere odds have gone up somewhat
104) bears need to get under 1841.5 quickly to maintain upper hand
105) otherwise we would need a time stop along with price stop
Comment:
106) 11:43 PM 1844.50, MOVE STOP AGAIN
107) to 1845.50
108) I'm getting tired, and also suspicious...
107) to 1845.50
108) I'm getting tired, and also suspicious...
Comment:
1:43 AM ET 1840.80, I'm really sleepy.
1) I really thought I could do this all night....
2) in my mind, either it would work or not and be over quickly
3) I had forgotten these dragged out moves that's like watching paint dry
4) so by this time, that level that was 1844, is now 1840...
5) so at 1840.80, we are still above it
6) furthermore, while all angles of regressions favor down, it does not have to be quickly
7) at some point I'm going to bed
8) my stop is now 1843
1) I really thought I could do this all night....
2) in my mind, either it would work or not and be over quickly
3) I had forgotten these dragged out moves that's like watching paint dry
4) so by this time, that level that was 1844, is now 1840...
5) so at 1840.80, we are still above it
6) furthermore, while all angles of regressions favor down, it does not have to be quickly
7) at some point I'm going to bed
8) my stop is now 1843
Comment:
10/02 2:03 AM ET 1841.XX, FIRST RESPONSE AT THAT LINE NOT SO HOT:
Comment:
1) for chart above:
2) so we need to hold under it for a few hours...
3) by now, we need 3 hours
4) it's 1841.40 as I'm typing... just trail your stops, you'll be fine
5) it is my opinion that we still tag 1805 during Monday, but that includes aftermarket
2) so we need to hold under it for a few hours...
3) by now, we need 3 hours
4) it's 1841.40 as I'm typing... just trail your stops, you'll be fine
5) it is my opinion that we still tag 1805 during Monday, but that includes aftermarket
Comment:
6) Im too tired... I'm going to bed
7) good night
7) good night
Comment:
8) as a warning... the setup for bull reversal has not gone away
9) if bulls chase this continuously, their ceiling is now 1886
10) obviously it would fall as they chase, so probably more like 1880 again
11) I'm not saying it will happen, I still think we are going to 1805
12) but be careful, see you in the morning
9) if bulls chase this continuously, their ceiling is now 1886
10) obviously it would fall as they chase, so probably more like 1880 again
11) I'm not saying it will happen, I still think we are going to 1805
12) but be careful, see you in the morning
Comment:
10/02 9:52 PM ET, 1833.xx, SORRY, I'M JUST SO BUSY.
1) so I know I said I would do this 20 hours a day thing
2) it's just not possible, bc I have so many other things that take priority over updating as we go
3) I watch my money first, then my my family, and sometimes, just don't have any time
4) with that said...
5) at the top of the page it said for STRATEGY:
1) so I know I said I would do this 20 hours a day thing
2) it's just not possible, bc I have so many other things that take priority over updating as we go
3) I watch my money first, then my my family, and sometimes, just don't have any time
4) with that said...
5) at the top of the page it said for STRATEGY:
Comment:
6) ... pick a spot and short.... then ... rinse and repeat
7) that remains the case for us with 1805 first and watching for 1767
8) after doing much data mining, I don't know if 1635 is possible
9) I also wouldn't say it's impossibe
10) but we need 1805, 1767, and then some bull comeback BEFORE TALKING lower
11) and at 1833.78 as I type, 1805 might not even be today, it maybe tomorrow
12) so things just and more and more stretched out
7) that remains the case for us with 1805 first and watching for 1767
8) after doing much data mining, I don't know if 1635 is possible
9) I also wouldn't say it's impossibe
10) but we need 1805, 1767, and then some bull comeback BEFORE TALKING lower
11) and at 1833.78 as I type, 1805 might not even be today, it maybe tomorrow
12) so things just and more and more stretched out
Comment:
10/02 5:25 PM ET -- Bears running out of juice, but not until 1767, probably Thursday.
1) so here's what I think I know
2) starting in 35 minutes, when markets re-open...
3) bulls will try to take it to 1836, 1840 if they are lucky
4) this will get sold to 1805 sometime tomorrow
5) after which bulls run it up again, not sure where to
6) but the curves say the selling stops before NFP, which is this Friday
7) meaning bears move price to 1767 Thurs night or Friday morning
8) that's what it looks like now
9) but I'm not sure how much of that matters bc it seems like I can only forecast right within a number of moves
10) this basically mean watching all the time
11) if you guys know of a firm that needs this skill let me know
1) so here's what I think I know
2) starting in 35 minutes, when markets re-open...
3) bulls will try to take it to 1836, 1840 if they are lucky
4) this will get sold to 1805 sometime tomorrow
5) after which bulls run it up again, not sure where to
6) but the curves say the selling stops before NFP, which is this Friday
7) meaning bears move price to 1767 Thurs night or Friday morning
8) that's what it looks like now
9) but I'm not sure how much of that matters bc it seems like I can only forecast right within a number of moves
10) this basically mean watching all the time
11) if you guys know of a firm that needs this skill let me know
Comment:
6:40 PM ET -- BULLS HESITATED, 1827.85
1) so that means bears looking at at 1823
2) that was kinda crazy just now
1) so that means bears looking at at 1823
2) that was kinda crazy just now
Comment:
3) I don't have a trade on since mid day
4) so I'm done with this until I have a better spot
4) so I'm done with this until I have a better spot
Comment:
5) 7:13 PM ET, 1823.67... not sure what happens now
Comment:
6) not sure because the move got here very "twisted", regression lines are
7) so it's a strange move in a way... it could do anything
7) so it's a strange move in a way... it could do anything
Comment:
8) especially while I'm on 15, 30-sec bars
Comment:
9) the "hold" at 1822.xx implies more down
10) bc w/ these drops... it's not the drop, it's the reaction
11) so i'ts saying it wants to go to 1815, 1812 which is really not that much farther from 1805
10) bc w/ these drops... it's not the drop, it's the reaction
11) so i'ts saying it wants to go to 1815, 1812 which is really not that much farther from 1805
Comment:
10:38 PM ET
1) made 1815.xx minutes ago
2) not sure where to from here
3) short term trends saying several different things
4) but ultimately, it's too close to 1805 to not get there somehow
5) but once again, just because it's going there, it doesn't have to be quick and easy
6) the important thing is the time limit on bear action has moved to Wednesday getting closer to right before or after ADP report
7) while the vol limit for next 48 hours is actually about 10 pts under 1767, so that makes it 1757
8) having hit 1815, the next 10 pts are almost trivial
9) there's basically two moves left
10) the prerequesite bounce off 1805 (which seems like it doesn't want to happen)
11) but as soon as you start thinking that, it always happens
12) so that bounce looked like 1840 earlier today, now look like 1825
13) and the second move is down to 1767, I need to check for numbers below that
14) bc it pushes the boundaries of 300-day vol too much w/o counting other factors
1) made 1815.xx minutes ago
2) not sure where to from here
3) short term trends saying several different things
4) but ultimately, it's too close to 1805 to not get there somehow
5) but once again, just because it's going there, it doesn't have to be quick and easy
6) the important thing is the time limit on bear action has moved to Wednesday getting closer to right before or after ADP report
7) while the vol limit for next 48 hours is actually about 10 pts under 1767, so that makes it 1757
8) having hit 1815, the next 10 pts are almost trivial
9) there's basically two moves left
10) the prerequesite bounce off 1805 (which seems like it doesn't want to happen)
11) but as soon as you start thinking that, it always happens
12) so that bounce looked like 1840 earlier today, now look like 1825
13) and the second move is down to 1767, I need to check for numbers below that
14) bc it pushes the boundaries of 300-day vol too much w/o counting other factors
Comment:
15) the annoying thing is that I don't know how to discount the "other factors" here
16) but I do understand that if we go under 1767 considerably... like 1720s or something
17) it is very very very hard for gold bulls to have any legit come back that would stop a sub 1000 number 6 months out
18) that is saying if we get under 1720s for this drop
19) the math says start expecting numbers under 1000 before April 2024
20) in this scenario... the massive drop would come mid January to mid-March
21) but getting way ahead of ourselves
22) I'm going to bed, have a good night
16) but I do understand that if we go under 1767 considerably... like 1720s or something
17) it is very very very hard for gold bulls to have any legit come back that would stop a sub 1000 number 6 months out
18) that is saying if we get under 1720s for this drop
19) the math says start expecting numbers under 1000 before April 2024
20) in this scenario... the massive drop would come mid January to mid-March
21) but getting way ahead of ourselves
22) I'm going to bed, have a good night
Comment:
10/02, 11:49 PM ET
1) I was wrong about time limit for bears moving to Wednesday
2) it's still almost all of Thursday
3) and it would be hard to change that
4) the one scenario that would make it move to Wednesday is ...
5) no stopping at 1805... slowly slipping to 1757
1) I was wrong about time limit for bears moving to Wednesday
2) it's still almost all of Thursday
3) and it would be hard to change that
4) the one scenario that would make it move to Wednesday is ...
5) no stopping at 1805... slowly slipping to 1757
Comment:
1:49 PM ET 1825, Are bears really going to make it to 1805?
1) despite trying several times, they have not succeeded
2) they have a really good set up right now to do it...
3) but they had one this morning too...
4) they got what maybe 8-12 hours to do this
5) so basically by 2 AM ET on Wednesday
6) they should move now
1) despite trying several times, they have not succeeded
2) they have a really good set up right now to do it...
3) but they had one this morning too...
4) they got what maybe 8-12 hours to do this
5) so basically by 2 AM ET on Wednesday
6) they should move now
Comment:
7) so basically, from now until NFP release on Friday 10/07 at 8:30 AM ET, we have this that I tried to describe last night:
Comment:
8) for chart above:
9) so overnight 1805
10) then 1832 AGAIN from 90 min before or after ADP (which is 8:30 AM ET), so 7-10 AM ET tomorrow
11) then last leg to 1767, maybe 1757, maybe even lower, but really hard to get under 1730, that's hard to imagine for the wave's composition
9) so overnight 1805
10) then 1832 AGAIN from 90 min before or after ADP (which is 8:30 AM ET), so 7-10 AM ET tomorrow
11) then last leg to 1767, maybe 1757, maybe even lower, but really hard to get under 1730, that's hard to imagine for the wave's composition
Comment:
12) still this f*&king line is the decisive marker
Comment:
2:46PM ET 1825... bulls refusing to die...
a) I don't know what it would mean
b) bc it's so wrong looking...
c) obviously, bulls want another run to 1832, that would then mean 1836, 1840??
d) well I'm out of this move so whatever
a) I don't know what it would mean
b) bc it's so wrong looking...
c) obviously, bulls want another run to 1832, that would then mean 1836, 1840??
d) well I'm out of this move so whatever
Comment:
4:54 PM ET ... I shorted again at the close.
1) I think it will do as I stated
2) 1805 and then all the way back up to ADP tomorrow
3) maybe it stop 1812 and reverse?
4) who knows?
1) I think it will do as I stated
2) 1805 and then all the way back up to ADP tomorrow
3) maybe it stop 1812 and reverse?
4) who knows?
Comment:
10/03 5:57 PM ET, about to drop hard after market re-open.
1) so this should be done in about 90 min, maybe even 60 min
1) so this should be done in about 90 min, maybe even 60 min
Comment:
2) first move is 1812, then 1817???
3) then 1807-1809... I cant call 1805
3) then 1807-1809... I cant call 1805
Comment:
4) reversal right off the open up
to 1823.5
to 1823.5
Comment:
5) i got a hard stop at 1824.5
Comment:
6) 6:10 PM ET 1823.56, tighten up stops here... this thing can go the other way too
Comment:
7) this is not going to be quick, it's going to be 8:15-8:30 PM ET to finish
8) if it breaks here... so many setups not turning...
8) if it breaks here... so many setups not turning...
Comment:
9) setup no longer reliable, at 6:23 PM ET & 1824, my stop is 1824.25
Comment:
10) I'm getting sick of it
Comment:
6:31 PM ET 1823.46, another setup about to get destroyed by last second buyers?...
1) I am about out of patience for this
2) tired AF, too
1) I am about out of patience for this
2) tired AF, too
Comment:
6:48 PM ET. 1822.96
1) this better not be another fake one
2) I'm going be so annoyed if this one gets bought again
1) this better not be another fake one
2) I'm going be so annoyed if this one gets bought again
Comment:
3) so gets bought at 1822 again, I quit the night, it's 1822.27 right now
4) I gotta get going, will touch in later
4) I gotta get going, will touch in later
Comment:
7:29 PM, I'm LONG since 1823.75
Comment:
1) like I said, bought at 1822
2) bulls have control now, and all the water to tomorrow 7:00 AM
3) I am not updating tonight anymore bc I don't have time
2) bulls have control now, and all the water to tomorrow 7:00 AM
3) I am not updating tonight anymore bc I don't have time
Comment:
4) yes... stopped out at 22.75 and shorted it again
5) it's going to go one way hard
6) I think that's the last swing
5) it's going to go one way hard
6) I think that's the last swing
Comment:
7) 9:07 pm, I'm finished tonight, it's not going to move off this 1820-1824 zone
8) maybe just equilibrium
9) but all the setups, excellent ones by both sides have just revert to zone
8) maybe just equilibrium
9) but all the setups, excellent ones by both sides have just revert to zone
Comment:
10/04 7:10 AM ET. THIS POST HAS ENDED. HERE IS NEXT ONE.
1) so after a disappointing few days where bears failed to reach 1805..
2) this is what is coming
3) so here:
1) so after a disappointing few days where bears failed to reach 1805..
2) this is what is coming
3) so here:
1) so from where we left off in last post...
2) last night I said I expected 1840s today
3) and I still do
4) but the work from 1877 to 1857 has been completed
5) the last part may not come quickly
6) as I said, in 1 or 2 or 12 hours
7) I am too busy to watch continously to say when
8) but once it hits 1843-1847, close shorts here
9) you have at least 1 or 2 more opportunities from here to next Wednesday morning for a higher short entry