XAU/USD (Gold) Technical Breakdown Wyckoff Elliott Wave HP
Elliott Wave Analysis
The chart indicates a completed Wave 5 (D) near 2,659,218, signaling a potential end to the prior impulsive move. Both chart sections display corrective (A)-(B)-(C) subwaves, suggesting the conclusion of a Wave C downtrend, possibly leading to a reversal or continuation. The clear five-wave structure followed by the A-B-C corrective phases on various timeframes aligns with classical Elliott Wave theory, suggesting potential trend exhaustion. Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) points on lower timeframes confirm the market's shift toward a corrective phase, with growing bearish pressure after the rally.
Wyckoff Methodology
The left chart highlights an accumulation phase, with Preliminary Support (PSY) and Secondary Test (ST) around 2,280,000, indicating smart money testing supply for a potential markup. A transition to Phase D occurs with a rally through the Automatic Rally (AR) and Sign of Strength (SOS), showing institutional involvement as price retests key levels. In the upper regions, particularly above 2,400,000, signs of distribution appear, marked by Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR), suggesting large supply entry. The Last Point of Support (LPS) near 2,485,000 signals a final retest before a breakdown, indicating a transition from bullish to bearish control.
Harmonic Patterns
The chart suggests potential Gartley or Butterfly harmonic patterns, supported by Fibonacci retracements at 0.618 and 0.786 levels. These retracements highlight possible reversal zones, with the 0.382 Fibonacci level around 2,463,551 aligning with typical B-to-C harmonic retracement targets. This harmonic confluence supports a potential reversal after the distribution phase, in line with both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff theories.
SMC
Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) zones across daily and 4-hour timeframes indicate liquidity clear-outs and structural shifts, confirming a bearish transition. Order blocks in shaded regions, especially around the 2,485,000 demand zone, suggest institutional activity, though the recent breakdown makes this area critical for future price action. Price interacts with equilibrium levels near 2,500,000 and 2,510,000, often decision points for continuation or reversal.
ICT
Key protected swing points and Fair Value Gaps (FVG) are identified, with price approaching an FVG on the right chart. These gaps signal potential price retracement before the trend continues. Liquidity pools below recent lows suggest institutional targets, consistent with ICT's liquidity hunt theory, offering further insight into likely price movements.
The chart indicates a completed Wave 5 (D) near 2,659,218, signaling a potential end to the prior impulsive move. Both chart sections display corrective (A)-(B)-(C) subwaves, suggesting the conclusion of a Wave C downtrend, possibly leading to a reversal or continuation. The clear five-wave structure followed by the A-B-C corrective phases on various timeframes aligns with classical Elliott Wave theory, suggesting potential trend exhaustion. Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) points on lower timeframes confirm the market's shift toward a corrective phase, with growing bearish pressure after the rally.
Wyckoff Methodology
The left chart highlights an accumulation phase, with Preliminary Support (PSY) and Secondary Test (ST) around 2,280,000, indicating smart money testing supply for a potential markup. A transition to Phase D occurs with a rally through the Automatic Rally (AR) and Sign of Strength (SOS), showing institutional involvement as price retests key levels. In the upper regions, particularly above 2,400,000, signs of distribution appear, marked by Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR), suggesting large supply entry. The Last Point of Support (LPS) near 2,485,000 signals a final retest before a breakdown, indicating a transition from bullish to bearish control.
Harmonic Patterns
The chart suggests potential Gartley or Butterfly harmonic patterns, supported by Fibonacci retracements at 0.618 and 0.786 levels. These retracements highlight possible reversal zones, with the 0.382 Fibonacci level around 2,463,551 aligning with typical B-to-C harmonic retracement targets. This harmonic confluence supports a potential reversal after the distribution phase, in line with both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff theories.
SMC
Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) zones across daily and 4-hour timeframes indicate liquidity clear-outs and structural shifts, confirming a bearish transition. Order blocks in shaded regions, especially around the 2,485,000 demand zone, suggest institutional activity, though the recent breakdown makes this area critical for future price action. Price interacts with equilibrium levels near 2,500,000 and 2,510,000, often decision points for continuation or reversal.
ICT
Key protected swing points and Fair Value Gaps (FVG) are identified, with price approaching an FVG on the right chart. These gaps signal potential price retracement before the trend continues. Liquidity pools below recent lows suggest institutional targets, consistent with ICT's liquidity hunt theory, offering further insight into likely price movements.
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