GOLD recovers from support at $2,561, Fed decision

Sep 18

XAUUSD decreased and recovered after the US announced retail sales figures for August. This is the last important US macroeconomic data released before the Fed's decision today (Wednesday).
Gold price touched 2,560 USD in yesterday's trading session. As of the time of writing, spot gold is at 2,573 USD/ounce.

Data from the US Census Bureau showed US retail sales increased 0.1% month-on-month in August, compared with a revised 1.1% increase in July. higher than expectations of a 0.2% decline.
Meanwhile, US retail sales (excluding autos) increased 0.1% after increasing 0.4% in July. This figure was lower than expectations for 0.2% growth.
The data slightly reduces the likelihood of a 50 basis point Federal Reserve cut at its September meeting, which would have an impact on gold's near-term gains.

Fed decision upcoming
Today (Wednesday), the market will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, which is expected to create a major volatility in the gold market.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut was 67% before the data was released, but after the data was released, the probability fell to 65%.

This would be the Fed's first rate cut since 2020, and financial markets have priced in the possibility of the Fed acting aggressively, as indicated by rates on CME's FedWatch tool.
Since gold does not yield interest, a low interest rate environment can reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is more beneficial for gold.
Gold buying power will decrease if the Fed only cuts 25bps this time, however, gold will be supported and rise even higher once the Fed cuts 50bps.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold corrected yesterday, it received support at the 0.50% Fibonacci extension. Note to readers in the previous issue.
The current price point of 2,561USD is the nearest support level, while the price point of 2,582USD is the nearest resistance and is also the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci level.
For gold to have enough conditions to increase in price technically, it needs to break the level of 2,582 USD and maintain price activity above this level, then the target is still the original price point of 2,600 USD in the short term rather than the level of 2,612 USD. Fibonacci price point 0.786%.

During the day, the uptrend of gold prices is still dominating with the main trend from the price channel, and notable levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,561USD
Resistance: 2,582USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2610

→Take Profit 1 2599
↨
→Take Profit 2 2594

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2544 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2540

→Take Profit 1 2551
↨
→Take Profit 2 2556

Sep 18

Note

Regarding the gold market, although there may be a significant adjustment after the Fed meeting, gold prices are still expected to receive support from two main sources: activities from gold ETF investment funds. in Western countries and demand from the Indian market, which may increase the most in many years.

Sep 18

Note

The Fed is expected to make a policy decision tonight. The central bank is expected to lower interest rates by at least 25bps, but traders are mixed on the extent of the Fed's cut. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders predict a 65% chance of a 50bps Fed cut and a 35% chance of a 25bps cut.

Sep 19

Note

Gold increased slightly at the beginning of the session after reversing a sharp decline yesterday. Gold benefited from the sharp decline in USD and government bond yields after the Fed policy decision, with a surge of more than 30 USD to a new historic peak at 2,600.14 USD. However, the recovery in USD and yields during and after Mr. Powell's press conference pushed gold to reverse and fall to around 2,550 USD. At the end of yesterday's session, gold adjusted to 2,556 USD, recording a decline of more than 10 USD.

Sep 19

Note

Sep 19

Note

According to data from the US Department of Labor on Thursday, initial claims fell by 12,000 to 219,000 in the week ended September 14. This figure is lower than the estimates of all surveys of economic experts. This period also corresponds to the survey for the September jobs report.

Sep 20

Note

Gold prices recovered on Thursday (September 19), when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) launched a monetary easing cycle with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in interest rates, pushing gold prices to highs. all-time, just a few cents below the key ceiling of $2,600/oz in the previous session.

Sep 20

Note

Gold prices hit a new record high above $2,610 on Friday on growing expectations that global central banks will "follow" the Fed in easing policy and cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates are positive for gold, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making gold more attractive to investors.

Sep 21

Note

World gold prices increased sharply in the trading session on Friday (September 20), with spot gold prices officially surpassing the important barrier of 2,600 USD/oz for the first time in history. The possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to cut interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East act as direct catalysts for this breakthrough in gold.

Sep 22

Note

In a survey on Wall Street, 19 analysts participated in the survey, of which 47% said that gold prices would continue to increase, 47% said that gold prices would go sideways and only 11% predicted that gold prices would decrease. .

Similarly, in an online survey on Main Street, of the 189 investors who responded to the survey, 68% thought gold prices would increase, 15% thought gold prices would decrease and the remaining 17% predicted gold prices would decrease. horizontal.