U.S. economic data explodes, gold will be put to the test tonigh
Updated
https://www.tradingview.com/x/soilOFju/
Friday is here again, and a very important data will be released today - US core PCE in September. However, it is not important to say it is important, because the answer is already known. Last week, Powell revealed that the annual rate was 3.7%, so we will see The market expectation is also 3.7%, which is basically no suspense.
But the monthly rate and one-year inflation expectations data are still worthy of attention, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. These are important factors that determine whether the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy in the future.
Yesterday, the European Central Bank announced that it would keep the three major interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Although Lagarde said that the suspension of interest rate increases does not mean that interest rates will not be raised in the future. But everyone knows very well that the rate increase will definitely not be able to increase, and we will be waiting for a suitable reason to cut interest rates later.
As for the United States, the just-announced initial annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States for the third quarter recorded 4.9%, a new high since the fourth quarter of 2021. You must know that the previous value was only 2.1%. The U.S. economy is doing very well, and recession seems far away.
Then Yellen didn't forget to add another punch: She said that higher U.S. bond yields are also a reflection of a strong economy.
Precious metals market
Gold continued to maintain a volatile consolidation on Thursday, with the high moving up to 1993, while the low stopped falling after testing 1972 yesterday.
This trend seems to mean a slow rise with rising highs and lows. In fact, it has not escaped the suppression of the long-short watershed. Before 1997 is refreshed, we cannot be overly optimistic about the rise.
Since it is still volatile, today's strategy has not changed. It is still high-altitude, supplemented by low-long. If the top continues to test the 1993--97 area, enter the market and break the new high to leave the market with stop loss.
For support below, we will first focus on yesterday's low near 1972. After falling below, we can further look towards 1962 and 1953.
It should be noted that there is a possibility that the situation in the Middle East will escalate over the weekend. Yesterday, Israel launched a partial ground offensive. It is unknown whether the number of personnel will continue to increase in the future. We have to prevent this from happening when doing transactions.
If risk aversion heats up again, gold will hit 2010 or even higher. We cannot control the rise and fall of the market, but we must be prepared to respond. Friends who hold short positions should pay attention to protecting their stop losses, and friends who hold short positions should lock up their positions.
Once the rush is over and the top divergence is formed, a new round of adjustment and decline is not far away. At that time, release the position and take advantage of the trend to add short positions.
Next week is another super data week. Non-agricultural and interest rate decisions will be announced one after another. The show is about to begin!
If you think my analysis is correct, please tell me boldly and let us learn and grow together.
Friday is here again, and a very important data will be released today - US core PCE in September. However, it is not important to say it is important, because the answer is already known. Last week, Powell revealed that the annual rate was 3.7%, so we will see The market expectation is also 3.7%, which is basically no suspense.
But the monthly rate and one-year inflation expectations data are still worthy of attention, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. These are important factors that determine whether the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy in the future.
Yesterday, the European Central Bank announced that it would keep the three major interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Although Lagarde said that the suspension of interest rate increases does not mean that interest rates will not be raised in the future. But everyone knows very well that the rate increase will definitely not be able to increase, and we will be waiting for a suitable reason to cut interest rates later.
As for the United States, the just-announced initial annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States for the third quarter recorded 4.9%, a new high since the fourth quarter of 2021. You must know that the previous value was only 2.1%. The U.S. economy is doing very well, and recession seems far away.
Then Yellen didn't forget to add another punch: She said that higher U.S. bond yields are also a reflection of a strong economy.
Precious metals market
Gold continued to maintain a volatile consolidation on Thursday, with the high moving up to 1993, while the low stopped falling after testing 1972 yesterday.
This trend seems to mean a slow rise with rising highs and lows. In fact, it has not escaped the suppression of the long-short watershed. Before 1997 is refreshed, we cannot be overly optimistic about the rise.
Since it is still volatile, today's strategy has not changed. It is still high-altitude, supplemented by low-long. If the top continues to test the 1993--97 area, enter the market and break the new high to leave the market with stop loss.
For support below, we will first focus on yesterday's low near 1972. After falling below, we can further look towards 1962 and 1953.
It should be noted that there is a possibility that the situation in the Middle East will escalate over the weekend. Yesterday, Israel launched a partial ground offensive. It is unknown whether the number of personnel will continue to increase in the future. We have to prevent this from happening when doing transactions.
If risk aversion heats up again, gold will hit 2010 or even higher. We cannot control the rise and fall of the market, but we must be prepared to respond. Friends who hold short positions should pay attention to protecting their stop losses, and friends who hold short positions should lock up their positions.
Once the rush is over and the top divergence is formed, a new round of adjustment and decline is not far away. At that time, release the position and take advantage of the trend to add short positions.
Next week is another super data week. Non-agricultural and interest rate decisions will be announced one after another. The show is about to begin!
If you think my analysis is correct, please tell me boldly and let us learn and grow together.
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