Empirical Fractal Recognition For Bitcoin, Will It Happen Again?

Hello, Traders Investors And Community. Welcome to this analysis about bitcoins current fractal structure in the middle-to-long-term. I made already an analysis regarding this subject so I recommend that you go to my account and see it to have a full-depth overview. The corona fears seem to shut down now as many countries loosening the lockdown-measures which is a good sign for the economy at all and that is why we see the markets, especially the stock-markets, moving some-way up but that can change rapidly when we get a second wave of the pandemic it is possible that the restriction comes back again when the infections do not slow down, therefore when this scenario plays out we can get a second corona-fear on the markets causing it to fall. This scenario should definitely be kept in mind and not ignored because it was the corona-fear which caused a heavy downturn in many markets. Although bitcoin could possibly be an anticyclical-investment in the current recession it can also be affected by the rapidly incoming FUD as we saw it in the past. Please read all!

As you can see in my chart marked with the blue trend-lines bitcoin is currently trading in a huge falling downtrend-channel which confirmed several times. We can divide the structure into the lower boundary, the middle-line (50% of the channel), and the upper-boundary. Also, it is an important fractal structure which confirmed already in the past, you can see it marked with the A1, A2, B1, and B2 text in the chart. The As are actually the accumulation-periods in the structure where institutions buying to hedge and sell on higher prices. The Bs are the distribution-phases of the downtrend-channel, currently, as you can see bitcoin confirmed a second time on the middle line of the channel which I also marked in the chart below. The last time we saw bitcoin developing this move it went to the upper boundary of the channel and formed its high at 10516.6 before going down heavily. Currently, we have the same confirmation at the middle line which signals the same fractal in play here.


What is also playing a big role in the current structure is the overall market-cycles bitcoin is forming since 24th September 2019, where we already formed two confirmed market-cycles with expanding mark-down phases to the downside, I made an analysis about this mechanism which you can see below. The falling channel and the fractal we see now forming a coherent structure with the expanding cyclical movement we see in bitcoin since September. Also what is identical is the resistance level, the upper boundary of the channel matches with the next possible distribution and its support in the cyclical market movement. Therefore we have a high probability that the level will confirm as resistance and that we will get a pull-back at least minimum to the 6100 to 6400 range which you can see marked in my chart with the "critical zone". This will be a huge test for bitcoin because the last time we tested it from the upside bitcoin fell heavily to the downside from 7360 to 3910.


What we need to keep in mind now is that bitcoin could possibly do not confirm the current fractal-structure. What is shown in the chart here is an empirical approach to the last months and its bearish decline, as these fractals developed there is a bigger possibility given that they continue to develop. The next fractal move must be confirmed as I already mentioned there is a distribution and since the bears need to confirm the distribution as valid we need to see it in the structure. The middle-line currently serves as the status quo of the uptrend when it is broken to the downside again it is very highly likely that bitcoin visits lower levels again otherwise it can still turn around and show other important signals. In this current weak uptrend, we need to keep patient and see how it is developing and also what is coming around with the ongoing corona-pandemic and its possible resulting fears because that can affect the market massively.

Thanks for watching the analysis, feel free to support my friends, have a good rest of the weekend.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best dividend."
FAREWELL

Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.