Bitcoin Daily Update (day 237)
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My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: Tempted to add to short due to symmetrical triangle breakdown and retest. Did not due to new stop loss approach that was outlined / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 and short ETH:USD from $200.50
Patterns: Wyckoff Hinge
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,390 | R: $6,415
BTCUSDSHORTS: Continues to support inside triangle
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0201% | Has been 0.01% for weeks, this indicates an imbalance building.
Short term trend (4 day MA): Todays candle closed above MA (bullish)
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Price right on MA (neutral)
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bearish
Overall trend: Chop
Volume: Weekly volume is at a yearly low
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Weekly doji
Ichimoku Cloud: Did get close inside 12h cloud (was not expecting). Top of cloud is around $6,700 | 4h cloud shows strong resistance at $6,411
TD’ Sequential: If weekly close below $6,591 then the setup will continue
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464 | This is also the highest liquidity zone for all of 2018
Price action: 24h: +0.025% | 2w: +3.68% | M: -0.68%
Bollinger Bands: Today closed above the daily MA for the first time since Oct 9th. Top band in lining up with trendline
Trendline: At ~$6,600
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals:Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Stuck at 50
Stochastic: Daily is turning over and diverging in a bearish manner while price stays flat - hidden bull div
Summary: Watching for a potential bearish hikkake on the 12h and 4h charts. If that happens it would also line up with a breakdown of the 12h cloud. An inside bar just closed immediately following a fake breakout. If the next couple candles rally on low volume then the setup would be evident. A brief breakthrough of yesterday’s high ($6,468 on Bitmex) and then a quick reversal below $6,385 would be confirm the pattern.
I have added to the stop orders that were outlined in yesterday’s post. A new order has been placed at $198.40. If that triggers then I will be moving my original stop to breakeven and expecting prior support to turn into strong resistance.
My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis / position: Tempted to add to short due to symmetrical triangle breakdown and retest. Did not due to new stop loss approach that was outlined / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 and short ETH:USD from $200.50
Patterns: Wyckoff Hinge
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,390 | R: $6,415
BTCUSDSHORTS: Continues to support inside triangle
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0201% | Has been 0.01% for weeks, this indicates an imbalance building.
Short term trend (4 day MA): Todays candle closed above MA (bullish)
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Price right on MA (neutral)
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Bearish
Overall trend: Chop
Volume: Weekly volume is at a yearly low
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Weekly doji
Ichimoku Cloud: Did get close inside 12h cloud (was not expecting). Top of cloud is around $6,700 | 4h cloud shows strong resistance at $6,411
TD’ Sequential: If weekly close below $6,591 then the setup will continue
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464 | This is also the highest liquidity zone for all of 2018
Price action: 24h: +0.025% | 2w: +3.68% | M: -0.68%
Bollinger Bands: Today closed above the daily MA for the first time since Oct 9th. Top band in lining up with trendline
Trendline: At ~$6,600
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals:Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Stuck at 50
Stochastic: Daily is turning over and diverging in a bearish manner while price stays flat - hidden bull div
Summary: Watching for a potential bearish hikkake on the 12h and 4h charts. If that happens it would also line up with a breakdown of the 12h cloud. An inside bar just closed immediately following a fake breakout. If the next couple candles rally on low volume then the setup would be evident. A brief breakthrough of yesterday’s high ($6,468 on Bitmex) and then a quick reversal below $6,385 would be confirm the pattern.
I have added to the stop orders that were outlined in yesterday’s post. A new order has been placed at $198.40. If that triggers then I will be moving my original stop to breakeven and expecting prior support to turn into strong resistance.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
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