XCH /USDT (Chia) Secondary trend. Channel.

Apr 12, 2023

Logarithm. Timeframe 3 days Secondary trend. Zone of the horizontal channel.


Zone of the horizontal channel (accumulation of almost 1 year).

At the moment of publication the price has moved in the parallel horizontal channel of accumulation for 350 days (11.6 months) with the step of 108.4%. This is a good sign. Now the price is in the compression zone (the average price of this accumulation).


This is what this horizontal channel zone looks like on the line chart.




Stop Loss Zone. Rationality of the strategy.

I would like to emphasize that the stop loss under the support of this accumulation has not been knocked out (reset) at this point. This is not a mandatory action, but it is common. Just keep it in mind and consider it a conditional temporary risk, so to speak. To minimize this contingent risk, use a stop loss or, more rationally, work at an average buy/sell price. Let me remind you again that the price is now clamped with orders on the exchange (it has been there conventionally for 6 weeks) and this is the average price of this parallel channel.

I deliberately showed the percentage values of the main support/resistance zones in case of the price compression (6 weeks in a very narrow range) on the chart for orientation and understanding of the logic of work.


Main Trend 3 day time frame.

XCH /USDT (Chia) Main Trend. Horizontal channel 11.6M

Apr 14, 2023

Note

Impulse from price squeeze +27%
Chia Network files for IPO

Blockchain project Chia Network (XCH), led by Bram Cohen, is filing for registration with the SEC for a planned IPO.

Jun 27, 2023

Note

427 days of accumulation (14.2 months!).

The average price in flat horizontal channel is near 38$ (it is so on the graph, but in reality it will be higher at the one who manages, more correctly directs the price under the general market situation (liquid exchanges, owners of large volume, developers).

🔴 Exit from the accumulation with the removal of stops.

If the market will allow under the panic to take out to the Stop-Loss channel zone, then the average price can be reduced, but not significantly. Even if the price fails by a large %, even hypothetically to "zero", because “ridiculous volume” is involved in stops (domino effect) and no matter what "illusory sales volume" algorithms will draw on exchanges' charts. This applies to all cryptocurrencies at times like these.

Leave a certain % (usually 20-30%) of the position in case of force majeure (“Black Swan”), the main position volume should always be recruited in the main recruitment zone of large market participants:

1️⃣ it is possible by trading (Compound Percentage) to increase the existing position (rationally) by volatility, the range of the accumulation channel,

2️⃣ it is possible by trivial market purchases at any price in the accumulation zone (less rational, but acceptable).

Jun 27, 2023

Note

🟢 Exit from the accumulation without taking a stop loss.

But it's possible to exit from the accumulation without taking a stop loss. The average price of the set in the accumulation is important, the minimum prices are not so important. As a rule, silly money hunters, i.e. new traders and hamsters, hunt for the minimum and maximum of the trend.

The foundation of this blockchain.

Total capitalization is only $1 billion. And that's including those coins that will only be mined in "decades." Conventionally speaking, there are only $265 million worth of coins in circulation right now, which is very small for an L1 blockchain and an ecosystem with 100,000 daily active wallets.

According to the Stock To Flow model (mining complexity), the fair price is now at $250. At the peak of the next cycle, the price should obviously be much higher...

$34 - now.
$250 - 7,3X
$340 - 10X.

In the next cycle at market peak (more than half time has passed since the previous market high) in the distribution of such an asset (average liquidity and this is important) usually shows from average price to average sale show 5–15 X depending on how much money is thrown on marketing and how inadequate the overall hype at the peak of the bull market.

A big plus of this asset is that it is not a scam and has its own blockchain with potential application and development.

Jul 27, 2023

Note

local trading situation in the horizontal channel of accumulation of 1.5 years. Everything is still the same. Percentage to key support/resistance levels.

Jul 27, 2023

Note

Stop Loss Zones (liquidity harvesting)

Oct 5, 2023

Note

the price has entered the marked capitulation zone, i.e. under the support level of the long-term accumulation channel. There is the seller's volume. Probably, they invented some fairy tale to justify this price movement to the public. There is a "shakeout." Typically, at such times, those who bought higher are afraid to buy at a much lower price from the original entry point.

Almost always, if there are such long-term horizontal accumulation channels, and most people clearly see this, and as a consequence are confident in repeating the waves inside the channel again (easy money) - there are such resets of passengers.... Similarly, as previously on the sushi cryptocurrency (check out the sushi trading idea and performance updates to see what's next on xch) Previously, the potential logical capitulation takers on these cryptocurrencies have been discussed many times.

Oct 30, 2023

Trade closed: target reached

C reversal zone 22,101 local first target inside the wedge figure has been reached +21%. The impulse of V - shaped reversal reached +44,18%, i.e. the level of 31,237 (marked in yellow color). Now the pullback.

📊This impulse brought the price back to the long-term accumulation channel zone, after "bad tales" (entering the capitulation zone and stop loss) before the market reversal.

🟢Will consolidate above 26.9 (2/69) support - continuing pumping, possibly through local consolidation.
🔴If it does not consolidate - return to the "canvas" of the descending wedge to the surrender zone.

Oct 30, 2023

Note

Oct 30, 2023

Trade active

Dec 29, 2023

Trade closed: target reached

price after breaking through the wedge from the capitulation zone (taking out long positions) reached the meridian of the former horizontal accumulation channel now at 38.580 +75%, thus forming a local ascending channel (now at its dynamic resistance. Important local resistance.

Dec 29, 2023

Trade active

May 8

Trade closed: target reached

reaching the resistance of the horizontal channel and rolling back from it.

May 8

Trade active

08 05 2024