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Bitcoin-btcusd

BTCUSD D3/W1 charts (3/7/2019)Just taking a wider TF look at the pair. We can see a much clearer picture of a the possible ascending triangle that is printing. Weekly supply zone in green denotes the resistance at the top of the triangle. The W1 chart suggests that a clean close above that resistance should have price targeting the orange zone just below the weekly HVN. The D3 chart shows that area as the first level of support as price fell from $6000. Supply remains in that area, which should provide initial resistance on any movement up. Today will close the current D3 candle and we can see that it is printing a nice bullish engulfing after the doji. It is also above the pivot as well as the 21 EMA. All of these are bullish. As we can see on the weekly chart, the target based on the triangle takes price right into that supply. We can also see the ATH's descending wedge resistance sitting just a few hundred dollars above the current price. A close above this resistance should set up a $14,500 target, at least, based on the height of the wedge. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/7/2019)Good morning, traders. Not a lot has happened over the past couple of days. We appear to be watching price move sideways. However, if we take a closer look, we can see price making higher lows toward resistance at $3900. This is creating a possible ascending triangle which should have price targeting $3988-$4005 upon a successful breach and follow-through. I had a preliminary descending channel on the H1 RSI yesterday but it now appears that it is printing a descending broadening wedge suggesting that demand is building for another push up as well. Additionally, the H1 MACD is nearing a bullish crossover. A successful continuation through the $4000 level should see price targeting $4130 with a possible wick toward the R1 pivot at $4210. At that point, I don't think price will push through the ATH diagonal red resistance without retracing toward $3900/$3950 first. This would then possibly print a cup and handle pattern with a minimum target of $4700/$4750 based on the pattern, depending on how it forms. The H4 RSI hasn't hit overbought yet either, currently sitting just below it suggesting that price has further appreciation before a good corrective retracement occurs. D1 MACD histogram printed bullish divergence between February 7th and March 4th which resulted in the move up since then. While daily volume has declined since the drop from $6000, it has also evened out since the end of December and appears to be building in strength, overall. This suggests that a base is being formed between $3000 and $4000. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/6/2019)Good morning, traders. I have been looking for something new to point out since yesterday but haven't really found much. Price has been consolidating at the upper end of the move up from yesterday. The dark black horizontal channel gives you the local TR. A close above the top of that TR should provide the target shown which is the EQ of the upper supply zone at around $4130-$4150. My current thought is that if we get a pop up to that level, then we may see a retracement toward the EQ of the green zone on the D1 chart (around $3900) before potentially pushing through the dashed red descending resistance from the ATH. We may even have a smaller move up followed by one smaller move down. If the pop up and retracement described happens, then it is likely that we could see a pennant print which would provide a target of the 1.618 extension at around $4900-$4950 based on the height of the flagpole. Prior to that, we may see price targeting the 1.272 extension/R2 pivot on the way up ($4550-$4630) based on the height of the pennant. H1 RSI is printing a flag, and a break through the flag's resistance should send price upward toward the initial target. Buyers continue to show their interest as RSI isn't getting much of a chance to cool down. This continued pressure as price nears the ATH diagonal resistance suggests that a move through that resistance would create strong bullish momentum overall. As always, we need to see it happen, as well as follow-through. Lower targets remain the same as yesterday but I am expecting the current TR to support price at this time. Beware of a possible bullish SFP printing if there is a sudden drop and price falls below the February 27th swing low. Based on the TR, that would likely print a Spring to create liquidity and move up through the resistance at the top of the TR. If you are looking to short, then you want to see a close below that swing low, at a minimum. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/5/2019)Good morning, traders. The bullish divergence I mentioned yesterday is playing out nicely today as price has made a good $100+ move up this morning with the daily candle currently engulfing the previous four days' candles and sitting above the daily pivot and 21 EMA. This has many of the smaller TFs overbought at this time with the H4 RSI not quite there yet, so we may see a bit of a pullback before further advancement. Daily RSI bounced off the horizontal support I mentioned yesterday and the H1 and H4 RSIs pushed through their respective diagonal resistances. Price is now sitting above the diagonal S/R line and the H4 and D1 HVNs. I am watching for a close above the February 28th swing high at $3897.62 to suggest further upward momentum. The February 27th swing low at $3658.19 is the level at which a close below suggests further downward momentum. While everyone else seems to be screaming that the sky is falling, the D1 chart shows us that nothing unexpected has happened since February 18th. Price closed above the descending channel's resistance and then pushed up into the overhead supply. At that point, it was rejected and price then tested the descending channel's resistance as support (which also happens to be the same level as the HVN). Price is now pushing back up out of that HVN after successfully testing resistance as support, and the next move up should have price targeting the next higher supply zone between $4349 and $4635. As always, I look for price to initially end up around the zone's EQ which, in this case, is $4480/$4485. However, before that, I am currently expecting price to tap the R1 pivot/descending ATH S/R line, pull back slightly, and then push through toward that target. It is possible that we see price continue past that target without stopping if enough interest is generated in the push through the ATH S/R line. Ultimately, I'm looking for a target of $4940-$5070 as this larger, potential wave 3, completes, with the possibility of an extension up to the EQ of the orange zone/R4 pivot at $5440-$5510. These targets are generalized and will likely require refinement if price moves up as expected. Right now, we want to see the $3765-$3800 area hold as support to increase the likelihood of continued demand pressure on price. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/4/2019)Good morning, traders. I'm finally back, after having moved last week, and Bitcoin has basically done nothing other than initially hitting my first upper target, followed by my lower target, that was published last Monday. Since then, it has moved sideways. Last night saw a bit of a move down, but price has remained within the local TR and now the H1 and H4 TFs are oversold and showing bullish divergence. Price hit the 61.8 retracement on February 27th and last night's drop hasn't pierced that yet, suggesting this local TR may be the bottom of this local corrective move. The supply zone between $4036 and $4237 remains the level to watch for upward movement to continue, with the supply zone between $4349 and $4635 being the next level to watch. Ultimately, we want to see $3550-$3650 hold. If it fails to hold, then $3431-$3383 becomes the target, and a push below that should have price targeting the 2018 low. D1 RSI is currently finding support on the horizontal S/R line at around 47, but the day still has quite a while to go before it closes out, so traders should be monitoring this. For shorter term traders, on a move up from here, initially price should expect resistance around $3770-$3835 followed by more resistance at $3880-$3945. Yes, many of the levels mentioned throughout this analysis are within $100 of each other which is close. However, traders need to understand that price has been moving sideways since the end of November which means many areas of interest have developed for traders looking to long and short. Movement in either direction necessarily means that these levels need to be overcome one at a time. Traders should be noting that each subsequent drop since February 24th has produced less effect for the amount of effort exerted. Additionally, the amount of effort exerted overall, across those drops, has continued to diminish. These two things suggest that 1) demand is increasing and 2) supply is exhausting, which means that we should expect price to rise overall. Contrary to CT's farm animals and cartoon characters, nothing has happened yet that should convince traders that price is about to dump $2000. On the contrary, price continues to make a stronger case for a possible low point forming. However, nothing is guaranteed and traders need to remain vigilant. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
1
Bitcoin long history with the MA100Hey, I got some stats for you. So Bitcoin MA 100 got tested 38 times since 2010, and this happened: * Clean bounce : 12 times * The MA got passed, with little follow up (< 10%), the price stagnated, and then the price went back the other way: 9 times * Break with follow up (immediate): 7 times * MA break followed by rapid reversal (like bouncing on it but after passing throught it a bit > 10%): 3 times * Break MA slighlty, stagnates, then continues: 3 times (case #26 in the screenshot is the 3rd time) * Bounce, stagnates, breaks: 1 time Here are all the times Bitcoin MA 100 got tested: The 3 cases when the MA got slightly broken, then price stagnated, and then there was follow through, in 2 cases the price stagnated for a very long time on the opposite side of the MA before breaking it weakly. So to sum up out of 38 times the 100MA got visited, the price broke it and stagnated 12 times, and out of these 12 times, only 3 were wins for traders buying the break. Is this always the same? With other markets? That seems logical. If a resistance gets broken, but there is no follow up the first few days, it would seem very unlikely anything happens. You need an initial snowball to grow a snowball bigger. But I never backtested the MA100 or any moving average actually, that much. What do you think? The odds of going up are about 1 in 4?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
4
Understanding Consolidation (BTCUSD)Proximal and distal lines used here to highlight a type of consolidation pattern known as a triangle pattern. Consolidation patterns are commonly understood to represent the redistribution of an asset due to shifts in sentiment, profit taking and/or revaluation. In this particular case, due to recent break of an area of price-interest (5,800-6,200), I would venture to assume this consolidation is caused by profit taking and is most likely going to lead to a retest of said area. However, my outlook is neutral until price will have broken out of consolidation in either direction. Understanding consolidation is fundamental to a trader's success and should not be overlooked.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TRADINGTRADER22222
Bitcoin - Bullish strength - How much further?Not financial advice. Do your own research. The ideas shared here are the personal opinions of the BitDoctor team. Trade at your risk. Not to state the obvious here but we've just had a major breakout of our prior trend. Sure, we have not created a higher high yet but what I will say is we've broken a trendline that has been holding since late November. Daily closed above the 50 day moving average and rammed right into the 100 day moving average. We're getting some resistance here but the moment we closed above the 50, we saw this huge candle to get us here. How we react here will be a major tell but typically in a wedge we will get an overextension on the E but we can't pass the C. That would be basically around 4100 that should provide the most resistance. One last note is the measurement (if you're a geometry buff) of the first impulse candle to the retrace has extended almost exactly 100% of the size of that candle (including wicks). That's something else you can clearly see in the charts. Ok. One more thing. Fibonacci from the top (4241) to the bottom (3331) has got the 61.8 retrace at just shy of 3893 which is where we've also seen our rejection. Lots of confluence here to look for a PIVOT Trade safely friends! <3 -CE-
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by bitdoctor
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/18/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin made a strong move this weekend. Make no mistake, it's been tough as there has been significant resistance, but price has moved up in spite of that and is now sitting just above the two month long descending channel resistance. In making this move, price has pushed beyond the green price target from last week and is above the daily pivot. H4 and D1 RSI bounced off their respective support levels as I noted was important to watch, leading to this move up. Currently, price is finding resistance at the 38.2% fib level but it is above the daily 50 EMA. The H4 flagpole target still sits at $3949 while the channel target sits at $4400. I want to see price close above the January 19th swing high of $3774, at a minimum. We don't want to see today's daily candle close below that level now that price has breached it. Lower TFs are well over-bought at this time. Daily RSI is nearing overbought as well. Daily volume is building up nicely, but we need to see it expand beyond the February 8th volume. That doesn't need to happen today, but it should come on the heels of continually expanding volume to provide a case for longer TF bullishness. The worst thing traders can do at this time is to emotionally enter a trade in either direction. There are still a lot of short-term resistance levels that price must close above and it must be done consistently without any fatigue in buying. Why? Because daily RSI continues to print higher highs for the past 2.5 months while price is printing lower highs. This is happening while price is still within the symmetrical triangle. Weekly RSI suggests that we need to see a price close above $4090 to keep that hidden bearish divergence from playing out. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
Bitcoin - A clean look (Educational Analysis)There aren't really any investment tips here but I'll be focusing mostly on the current look at the market structure. Here's basically what I'm seeing right now. 1. Moving averages (4H timeframe) We're looking at the 25/50/100/200 moving averages and they're all bullish right now and they have been for a few days now. Natrurally after a $300 candle things are going to start crossing bullish. What does that mean though. We haven't seen bullish crosses like this since December 2018. The only thing that we have going against us is the lack of bullish volume. We're seeing high volume candles, but so far they've been red candles. This isn't the greatest sign. 2. Channels. We have two channels that I believe we're in right now. When you put them together we're creating the triangle that is shown. I'll talk about the triangle (wedge) in the next point. As for the channels, though, we've got an orange bearish channel and a cyan bullish channel. You can see that we're getting support on both of them. We're seeing more support at the median of the bearish channel but we broke the median on the bullish channel quite a while ago. Naturally there will be a gravitation to the median of the channel and whoever is controlling the price action will expect the price to break. This brings me to the wedge. 3. Wedge formation This is what everyone is looking at. Of course I won't get into Elliot Wave theory but simply the wedge that we're in is pretty darn clear if you ask me... until it's broken. We're expecting a push up to the top of this wedge to continue to validate this wedge that we're in. It's pretty clear we have gotten our lower trendline of the wedge and we're basically confirmed on the downtrend resistance as well. I'm looking at $3825 as our major resistance. This is decreased from $4400, $4230, $4100, and now potentially $3825. I continue to agree with this wedge formation until it's broken. If we break $3825 then I believe we will retest the median and reach approximately $3900 or $3950. Trade safely friends. <3 -CE-
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by bitdoctor
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/15/2019)Good morning, traders. Price is attempting to push its way through the descending wedge's resistance as H4 RSI is pushing through its own resistance. H4 MACD is curled up and nearing a bullish cross above centerline. As we can see, the green target, which is based on the height of the wedge, is near the previous swing high. Traders need to be cautious as price nears that area. A close above that swing high is what is needed. A wick above but close below prints a bearish SFP which will likely have price reversing. However, a close above that swing high opens up the targets I discussed yesterday as price begins closing above the pattern resistances. While anything is possible at all times, there is little-to-no reason to think price is ultimately headed down from here at this time. At the very least, we should see price move up toward $3900. A daily close above $3615 should make this much more likely as that gets price back above the daily pivot. I am still not a big fan of the possible IHS but have left it for those of you who are interested in it. BTCUSD Shorts may be finding a temporary bottom at the very least. More importantly, they are nearing the area where they have previously bounced and price headed down as a result. Just because it has happened before does not mean it will continue to happen, though, but it is something to keep an eye on. If Shorts happen to drop below that level this time around it may be an indication that the market is reversing. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/13/2019)Good morning, traders. Price hit the red target yesterday and was $20 shy of the pink target. Other than that, it has continued to move sideways within a possible flag. However, generally, the longer this is drawn out the less bullish it is. That being said, there was a 9% drop in Bitfinex short interest in just over an hour earlier this morning prior to the U.S. open (most of it happened within 20 minutes suggesting that it was possibly a single entity unwinding). There was a simultaneous 3% drop in Bitfinex long interest (most of it happened within 5 minutes suggesting a single entity). In terms of actual numbers, shorts closed out about 2500 positions while longs closed out only 1000, causing the longs/shorts ratio to pop. There was no corresponding strong movement in price in either direction at the time but price has been moving up gradually since then. Generally, a significant drop in short interest like this means that price is expected to rise. The lesser the short pressure the easier it is for price to do so. Why did it happen this morning? We can only speculate, but there is the possibility that because the bears have not been able to push price back down, in spite of the dumps since the February 8th advance, larger position holders are cautious that price may advance more in the short term. There are a few people running around talking about a possible IHS on the H4. I have labeled it for you, but I'm not necessarily a fan of the idea. If it is, then there is the possibility that we could see a move down to $3500 before completion of the right shoulder. The neckline is denoted by the ascending red resistance line. If you've been following me for any length of time, you know that I am not a big fan of H&S or IHS patterns, but in this case volume has been expanding in what would be the right shoulder (as we expect in this pattern) which means we can't automatically discount it. Price is finding support around the 21 EMA, at the bottom of the local TR. I have readjusted the descending channel/flag to compensate for yesterday's spike in price and the target based on the height of the channel/descending wedge would be around the neckline of the proposed IHS. RSI continues to print a descending wedge and has found support, so far, as the previous symmetrical triangle's resistance. Price is also printing a possible ascending channel which should have traders cautious about a possible double top forming around $3700. D1 shows yesterday's increasing volume resulting in a long-legged doji, just below the daily pivot, underscoring the strength of the current battle between bulls and bears at the $3500-$3700 level. Today's candle is currently signalling more of the same. We can see rising volume since mid-January but less follow through from the bears. Does this signal a shift in sentiment and a reversal of price? We can't tell yet, but it is something that all traders should be watching. High levels of effort resulting in less result often indicate that reversal, and that's currently what we are seeing. Yes, ultimately volume is still decreasing, but at a much slower rate than it has been, hence the need to watch the current volume advancement for follow through and continued increase. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
Bitcoin - Moving Average ZoneNot financial advise. Do your own research. The ideas shared here are the personal opinions of the BitDoctor team. Trade at your risk. A slightly different perspective and not really looking at market formations but focusing on moving averages. There are a couple moving averages I want to focus on: 1. 200 Week Moving Average (Red) - ~$3175 2. 25 Day Moving Average (Green) - ~$3542 3. 50 Day Moving Average (Orange) - ~$3674 We are currently stuck between these 25 and 50 day moving averages but what I want to focus on is historical price action. We've been rejected at the 50 day moving average many times. I'm not sure I'd include Dec 24 as a front run rejection of the 50 but definitely Jan 8 and Feb 8. If you take a loser look at the October- November timeframe, you'll notice we were suppressed below the 25 day moving average for quite a while and we were controlled by the 25 / 50 / 75 day moving average. We're close to being back there depending on what happens here at the 25/50. If we are able to break $3675 cleanly, I will be looking at the next target at $3850 but you have to be watching that resistance channel as well (in yellow). All in all we are being controlled by the 200 weekly moving average and the 50 day moving average. These moving averages are converging on each other and I'm keeping my eye on the 75 / 100 day moving averages which is also creeping closer as days go by. It will be interesting to see in the upcoming 2-3 days what happens. I am surprised we've stayed in this zone as long as we have. Trade safely friends <3 -CE-
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by bitdoctor
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Demand continued to flow into the pair over the weekend with supply attempting to assert itself yesterday. Up looks much more likely than down, in the near term at least. The D1 chart shows price sitting on the daily pivot after being rejected around the 50% retracement of the December 15th low to the December 24th high, but we could see it retreat as far as the 38.2% level before heading up. The target for the break of the green descending wedge is around the 61.8% retracement, as shown, which is also the descending channel's resistance. Currently, price is printing a pennant/flag, and if that breaks bullishly then the target would be the 78.6% retracement based on the height of the flagpole. This takes price through the descending channel's and symmetrical triangle's resistances leaving targets of the R4 pivot around $4380-$4420 and upper supply zone around $5200, respectively. However, in reaching this latter target, price would necessarily move bullishly out of the large descending wedge which has been printing since the ATH and signal a target of $14,000+. Be aware that absolutely none of that is guaranteed. What we are looking at is pattern-based targets that only become active once price leaves the pattern. Traders should be watching the previous swing highs at all times because a failure of price to close above them signals weakness. H1 RSI appears to have found a bottom, so traders should be watching for a push through its resistance. Price's move through its own resistance should have it targeting the top of the local TR and flag/pennant resistance. As shown, a bullish push through that resistance should set a target near the top of the descending channel at around $3780. So we have multiple targets based on multiple TFs and patterns for traders to choose from depending on what TF they are able to trade and their level of risk aversion. Obviously, a breakdown of price below the local TR support should have traders cautious about a possible move to the bottom of the flag/EQ of the large descending channel. Failure of that area to support price opens up a possible move to the bottom of the descending channel. D3 RSI is sitting bearish at 40, and has been ranging for almost two months, but another strong move up would rectify that for the bulls. Last week's W1 candle printed strong bullish engulfing as well as tweezer bottoms, which should signal further upward momentum. Weekly RSI is sitting at 36.5 and, like the D3 RSI, has been ranging for almost two months but is nearing its descending channel resistance. Looking objectively at the W1 chart, it appears that an accumulation TR may be developing with an expected move toward $4300-$4400 which aligns with the D1 descending channel's pattern target. Failure of price to continue upward from there, through the ATH resistance line would signal an expected move back to the bottom of the TR to print an ST in Phase B as I have discussed previously in multiple daily live streams. However, based on the structure of the larger patterns and the current TR, if it is accumulation and price follows this path back down then it becomes increasingly likely that traders may not see the Spring they all are waiting on. Rather, the pair could just print an LPS due to significant demand in the $3000-$3500 area. If so, then we could realistically see price above $6000 by the end of Q2. A February close above $3693.85 would print the first higher monthly close since July 2018 (which is the only higher monthly close we've seen since the ATH). All this being as it is, there is also the chance that we could see a continued move up into the $6000s from where price currently sits as well. Accumulation doesn't just happen horizontally, though most of the time that is the case. So be careful of anyone promising you that price MUST do something particular. If you think you are going to "catch the bottom," be realistic and understand that there is very little chance of you doing so (and if you do it will result from luck, rather than skill). Understanding what is happening with price action and committing to buying near the bottom will be a lot more effective in the long run, but that also means that you most cannot jump in with 50%-100% leverage. The fact is, you will not get rich overnight and the more you attempt to do so the more likely you are to lose everything. Of course price could also always head lower, beyond the 2018 low, as well. While this seems increasingly unlikely, the potential for it to do so remains as long as price sits below $6500. A close below the daily S1 pivot, especially on the D3 chart, is what I would be watching for in regards to a possible move down and resumption of accumulation below $3000. Otherwise, any price move below that level, especially after a move up to $4300 first, would most likely be nothing more than the ST and Spring which indicates a move back up to the top of the blue TR in both cases. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTC Bull Flag - What to look for nextA look at some recent BTC impulse moves higher and subsequent price movement. I prefer bull flags that drift lower on lighter volume and then push higher on increased volume. However, ultimately the breakout volume and follow-through move is what's important. Box A is yesterday's move showing an ideal pullback level. Box B is the Dec 17th move which turned into a good multi-day run. Notice the volume. Box C is the failed breakout attempt in early January. How will this latest one turn out is yet to be seen but so far the volume signature is positive. Sitting tight for a another day will help cool off the technicals and let the EMAs catch up. After that, we'll want to see some volume on a push above 3700 and see prices hold above that level.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by NodeInvestor
3
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/8/2019)Good morning, traders. Price action just got interesting this morning. H4 and D1 RSI are breaking bullishly through their resistance and volume has picked up noticeably. As a matter of fact, H4 RSI is now bullish at 56. Obviously we need to see follow through, and there is still another 2 hours left in this current candle, but volume is already nearing the same level of the previous candle's volume and price is attacking the green descending wedge's resistance. A successful breach through that green resistance, and continuation, provides a $3865 target. That is also at/near the top of the descending channel. As always, traders must be mindful of previous swing highs. We need to see candles closing above them, not wicking up and then closing below. This latter scenario results in a bearish SFP which should be an indication that price will reverse for a short time at the least. The 15 minute through H1 TFs are overbought signalling that we may see a bit of a pullback before further advancement but it's not guaranteed. Price's current location has the potential to result in strong FOMO that could keep those TFs overbought for a while. At this point, the two most important thing to watch are the H4 and D1 RSI levels. We want to see them both closing and remaining above their respective resistance levels because they are longer term resistance. I have added a few price range target tools to give traders an idea of targets based on patterns that are breaking bullishly. As long as they continue to do so, each target should continue to lead to the next higher target. Failure of follow through should have traders watching the bottom of the blue TR and the two dashed lines below it. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/7/2019)Good morning, traders. After the recent drop and immediate reversal price has continued to move sideways adding to traders' already pessimistic attitudes and boredom. But don't let the market lull you to sleep. These are precisely the times traders need to be extremely aware of what's going on as sudden moves often do happen and catch sleeping traders off guard. Bitmex supply side order book looks much less aggressive than it has for the past week and its buy side is stacking up once again. Bitfinex order book continues to be the leader for the spot market with demand spikes currently showing 1070 BTC at $3410 with 500 more at $3350 and another 611 at $3300, while supply side is showing 801 BTC at $3800. What we have is a continued slow drift downward within a descending wedge near the bottom of a descending channel on the D1 chart. D1 RSI also remains within the descending wedge that it has been printing and MACD remains flat with possible bullish divergence printing across November 27th til January 31st. We need to see MACD curling up before we can confirm this though. H4 RSI continues to print a symmetrical triangle which could lead to a break up. But in order to do so, demand must overcome supply. The higher RSI lows show demand increasing, but the lower highs indicate that supply is still pressuring the pair. In other words, as I have been saying, demand and supply are fighting hard for position. The weekly 200 MA is sitting at $3314 currently with weekly volume near the lows seen just before price dropped through the $6000 floor, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest of that MA. An objective look at what's going on, especially if you compare it to 2015, suggests that we should get a bounce off the 200 MA area, followed by a move toward the top of the TR and the descending ATH resistance, then a move back down to the bottom of the TR for a Spring followed by a move up and out of the TR. I'm not telling anyone to change their minds about moves toward $2000 and lower, only reminding them that price has continued to set up this particular move and it aligns with the weekly look at the 2015 correction. Switching from candles to line view makes the picture much clearer and I will take a look at that during this morning's live stream. Remember, my goal isn't to convince you that you are right, wrong, or otherwise, only to help you keep your emotional bearishness in check so that you trader smarter and protect your capital. At the end of the day, we are still in a corrective market until proven otherwise so the trend is down. The key is to pay attention to what's going on so that you can notice potential reversals setting up and keep from getting caught in the wrong direction when the market does reverse. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/6/2019)Good morning, traders. Overnight saw Bitcoin finally falling through the bottom of the ascending channel. As I have been warning, failure of follow through on a break through resistance will likely result in price continuing to head lower. That strength into the end of the daily candle yesterday printed a bullish cross on the MACD which has since turned into a potential bearish cross today. I say "potential" because we need to wait for the daily candle to close in order to confirm it. Furthermore, there was no follow through on the bullish SFP that printed as well. Price is now printing a symmetrical triangle after the $100 drop, but it looks weak suggesting a further move down. In terms of a TR, we have potentially only seen the beginning of this one with the January 28th low marking the lower bounds and the January 30th high marking the upper bounds. This is the blue channel and is something I discussed as a possibility about a week ago. Is this trading range a shorter-term redistribution or accumulation? There's no way to know at the moment. The expectation should be a further drop toward the bottom of the blue TR, likely around $3300 (or, with enough FOMO on the drop, potentially $3260 to tag the bottom of the larger descending channel), and print an ST. Ideally, we will see a bullish SFP print at that time and have price pushing back up toward the top of the TR. If price moves as such, but doesn't break yesterday's high, then it is much more likely to be redistribution and we will be looking for price to head lower after that, once it breaks the swing low. However, if it is accumulation, then we will see a target of $3640/90 and the greatest likelihood of that lower low being the second bottom in a double bottom pattern. A further breakdown a-la redistribution threatens the larger descending wedge that price has been printing since the January high and signals a likely retest of the 2018 low. But a move up via accumulation in this local TR would signal a clean bullish break through the green descending wedge's resistance and create a target of $3950, at this time, which is also the major resistance holding back a possible move up to the low-to-mid $5000s. H1 RSI is hugging oversold and the MACD is curled up toward the signal line attempting to push toward a bullish cross. H4 RSI is just a bit above oversold which means there's still room for that above-mentioned drop in price. So far, this recent drop's H4 volume has been significantly less than the volume on the SC leading into the blue TR. Daily volume is rivaling yesterday's and we still have more than 1/3 of the day left. Daily RSI remains within the descending wedge it's been printing since December. We are going to take a look at BTCUSD shorts, longs, and volatility during this morning's live stream, as well as USOIL (which is following the path I outlined a few days back), DJI, and maybe even some FOREX. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (2/5/2019)Good morning, traders. The big news yesterday was potential proof that the Mt. Gox trustee was selling Bitcoin on the BitPoint exchange, rather than OTC, through the first half of 2018 (www.goxdox.com). If so, it could help us understand why price failed to rally strongly enough off the $6000 level and ultimately fell through, after that level supported price for most of the year. But I'm not here to take a side or convince you one way or the other. That's up to you to decide. Instead, we are here talking about price today and it's not looking terrible at this time. Bitcoin's price bounce off ascending channel support overnight and is now attacking local resistance. There has been a significant fall-off of visible nearby supply on the orderbooks as well. However, we need to see a close above the February 4th swing high of $3439.46 on the H4. After that, we then need to see a close above the February 2nd swing high of $3485. Doing so will open the gates for a run toward $3570 and, of course, the January 25th swing high of $3657.89. If we can see price close above those swing highs, then the next step becomes the January 19th swing high of $3774. That's the step-by-step look for the shorter TF traders. The H1 chart continues to show volume picking up in the $3385-$3435 area. I am watching for a move through the descending blue local resistance to signal a long target of the $3465 level which is just below the EQ of the ascending channel that price has been printing since January 29th. However, this doesn't mean that price will reach that level. Demand appears to be weak so traders that intent to trade this level are going to have to be prepared for a lack of follow through. RSI is printing a nice ascending channel, so traders can also watch for a move outside of that channel to suggest price direction. The weekly 200 MA continues to show the support level just below price at around $3300 right now. This TF and the D1 also shows a clearly defined triangle which price bounced off of last week and, with follow through this week, we should be expecting to see a move up to the top of it around $3900-$4000, depending on how long that takes. The D1 descending wedge suggests a breakout to the upside as well. That breakout would provide a target of the top of the triangle, so there is good confluence on that move. A successful push and continuation through the triangle's resistance provides a target of $5200-$5300 based on the width of the triangle. Currently, this is close to the daily 200 MA, again another strong confluence area as it is also a supply zone that was created during the fall from the $6000s. Finally, if price were to hit that supply and remain strong, that would have it above the long-term resistance that dates back to the ATH. Such a move should then indicate a target of just over $15,000 based on the HTF descending wedge that began at the ATH. The D1 RSI has a lot of room to run as it is currently bearishly under neutral at 41 and is attacking descending resistance. It was also most recently strongly oversold (the lowest recorded daily RSI at 9.4) and has yet to return to overbought as we generally expect RSI to move. Interestingly, MACD is also showing signs of bullish divergence between November 27 and January 31, if price can continue to push up from here to confirm that January price point. The monthly chart is interesting. We can note the large drop from the $6000s in November, however we saw even greater volume in December but a very small candle spread and good lower wick. January saw volume comparable to this past summer, but again small candle spread. This appears to be suggesting that demand continues to show up and while it hasn't been enough to send price higher just yet, if it holds then supply will continue to get eaten up and we could see price moving higher and catching most traders off guard. The M1 wedge is the dominant pattern at this time and based on prior movement suggests that price should be moving sideways/up to challenge the pattern's resistance. This would give price another alternating touch of support and resistance thereby confirming the pattern. If that were to happen, then my expectation continues to be what it has been in that we would see price test that resistance, retrace a bit, and then push through the resistance. Looking at the daily chart, the move toward resistance isn't unthinkable. None of this guarantees that price will move up, and there is room within the local D1 descending wedge to drop once more. Because the D1 triangle hasn't seen a good rebound off the bottom other than the initial move, price dropping to the bottom of the small local descending wedge doesn't mean a bearish break of the triangle. Rather, it could just be signalling that the bottom is at that lower point if we see a strong move back toward the triangle's resistance. Ultimately, any move below $3300, and prolonged stay there, has me feeling much more bearish. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
2
Bitcoin Long Term CycleIndicators are more powerful when looking on the weekly or monthly. If we look at the 2014 cycle, I think we are around the same point today when it bottomed. As in my previous ideas on BTC, I expect a retest of 200 weekly EMA soon that could bring down price to 3200 or 3000 $, making a double bottom and starting a new cycle for the bulls. Good luck guys. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My Website - Automated Strategies with Backtest and Alert Setup
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by cyatophilum
7
Atomic #79. Let's go on a journey...It was the summer of 1997 in Des Moines, Iowa (my old hometown). Des Moines is a smaller city in the center of Iowa surrounded by corn fields, barns, cows, horses, pigs and baseball fields. Life was good and simple. I was 16 years old. AOL dial up was around for a few years and all you could really do was email, which was too slow and cumbersome at the time. I drove a 1980 4-door Honda Accord pushing 95 horse power that was in flawless condition with automatic windows, air-conditioning and an 8 track CD changer. It was a real panty dropper. It was the year I had my first taste of alcohol and hated it. I had my first kiss and loved that. It was the year I fell in love and then fell out. I was a successful track and field athlete at the state and national level. Most households still had multiple landlines. There was usually a common phone in the house and then my sister and parents had their own lines in their bedrooms. My friends and I would spy on my sister's phone conversations by finding an open phone in the house and ever so carefully lifting it off the jack. The key word here is carefully you see so that the person on the phone thought they were having a private conversation. If you lifted too quickly it would make a clicking noise and then.... busted!!! There was no such thing as speaker phone so you'd need to do a football huddle to hear what was being said. We still had huge phone books that would be delivered every year and yes, people actually used them. This was our version of Google at the time. I wasn't a huge gamer, but I still had my original Nintendo with Mike Tyson Punch Out, Contra and etc. High Definition didn't exist so people still looked good without make up on television. I was a huge Chicago Bulls fan and Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Phil Jackson, Dennis Rodman, etc. was around. I believe this is the year they were going for their 5th NBA Championship. We had a computer in our house, but it was more like one of those bulky old television sets that came with a keyboard and mouse. I would use it to type my book reports for school, print it off and that's all it was useful for. Essentially an upgraded typewriter. I still remember the weird noise it would make when I would have to save a document to a floppy disk and the process took several minutes. Yes - for a 10-page report. Gold's element symbol is Au and atomic number 79. These were my atomic #79 moments growing up as a kid. Life was simple. No Wi-Fi. No Facebook, Instagram or Twitter. No real worries about privacy because big data wasn't really a thing back then. Life for me was about being in nature, running, hanging out with friends and pondering what we wanted to be when we grew up. You never know you’re living in a golden moment until you’re not. I’m grateful for the life I have right now, but there is a side of me that longs to be naïve again. To think the world is a good place. People are good. Governments are good. Old people (in their 30’s) who actually have jobs are smart and inspired about what they do. You can be anything and everything you want to be in life if you just work hard enough. To drive a 1980 Honda Accord and still have girls look at you. That's Atomic #79 bro. Gold is forged from the greatest energy events in the universe. Supernovas, the death event of a collapsing star, where the energy explosion is so powerful that our scientific instruments can detect these gravitational waves billions of light years away. It is thought earth obtained most of its elements from these supernova events during its formation 4 Billion years ago. The amount of Gold that has ever been mined in the history of mankind could fit in an Olympic size swimming pool. People who say Gold is just a shiny piece of metal that only has value because we HUMANS say it has value. How arrogant and narrow minded can we be? Gold has a power that is unlike any other material. It has a certain energy about it. If you’ve ever held a gold bar of material size and weight you’ll quickly realize you aren’t dealing with anything normal. You feel it’s intrinsic value. There’s a particular respect between your human senses and that of the gold you are handling. Almost like we're intertwined with it on some molecular way. The ancient people felt the power of gold way before advanced technology. The US Dollar has the world’s respect as it’s the global reserve currency. Many assets and commodities are priced in USD worldwide. But it’s the making of mankind with a century old history. We print as much or as little as we want to “control” the markets greed and fear. Gold is literally the making of the universe with a 14-Billion-year-old history. The value of a $20 million-dollar Picasso painting isn’t just wrapped into the art piece you are buying. When you buy a Picasso, you’re buying into the history of Picasso. You’re buying into his legacy, his personal faults and his triumphs of what made him a creative genius. But like the US Dollar it can disappear. Gold will never disappear. It can't be destroyed. Gold will always have power over Bitcoin because of this history. Cryptography and math were invented by man. Not by the Gods. Bitcoin or something like Bitcoin is better money. Math is more objective while man is more emotional. But money is just a unit of value created by man. But like Bitcoin if you don’t actually possess the gold…you don’t really own Gold. You own the idea of Gold via a certificate or ETF. That is a huge difference. When you look back on the life you lived, the chances you didn’t take, the wins, the losses, the regrets you’ll quickly realize one thing. All we are and ever will be is history. Our intrinsic value comes from the history we create. The blockchain is the first time in HUMAN history we can say the Truth is the absolute Truth. That’s an undeniable fact. However, Gold has never had this problem. Its history goes back to the beginning of time. When the first star died billions upon billions of years ago and spewed its guts to create an element that gave us our first and original blockchain. So, when you consider the trading chart above remember it’s mankind’s Greed and Fear that creates this inverse relationship between Gold and the US Dollar. If you’re a crypto-maniac like me you’ll realize gold is the longest immutable and censorship resistant blockchain created, not Bitcoin. But it goes beyond any doubt technically or fundamentally that both blockchains are way undervalued! We have for the first time an invention by man that can record history as absolute truth. And when you think of our lives or mankind's lives, it's this truth in history that we all every value and fight for. If you're a speculator be patient and wait for interesting prices. When thinking about going into a trade calculate first how much money you could lose vs. make. Best Regards, Bobby -Don't hate the hair, hate the game.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn1615160