Btc-e
When to buy... using BTCUSD Shorts 20 MA (PART TWO)Took the weeks in which 20MA decline ended. Marked with arrows when week high and low pierced H L range of first and last daily price bar of decline in MA. Can you discern a pattern. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
From yesterday's post see yesterday's post for more detail
When to buy. Here's an idea using BTCUSD Shorts 20 MA.Using 20MA Bitcoin Shorts. When to buy. Looked for long drops in MA ending with double bottoms (27 & 29 Jan, 21 & 25 Otc) and studied those bars to draw interesting breakout levels. In this study a close above $8371.3 looks key for bulls, and below $7,426 for bears. But be careful this is based on today's low at the time of posting this chart having already been hit, and that the end of day 20MA will be higher than yesterday. NOT ADVICE DYOR.
EW Analysis: Wave structure Suggests Limited Downside For BTCHello traders!
After that deeper corrective decline called double zig-zag W-X-Y pattern on Bitcoin , it's time to take a look at potential support levels.
We decided to take a look at Bitcoin dominance ( BTC .D) against the ALT dominance (OTHERS.D), where we clearly see a corrective decline in wave 4 that can find support soon, ideally around previous wave »iv«, 38,2% Fibonacci retracement and 14.00 – 13.50 area. So, seems like BTC Dominance will come back, which can be supportive for Bitcoin , especially if ALTs are looking for the potential support or bottom, but according to dominance, BTC should be still doing it better than ALTs!
We also decided to take a look on BTC Futures chart, because it's more accurate than those from exchanges. As said above, we are tracking a double zig-zag W-X-Y corrective pattern, which can be approaching the end soon, ideally once BTC .D/OTHERS.D chart finds support. From technical perspective, previous wave 4 and 61,8% Fibonacci retracement are actually ideal support zone and if we also consider an open GAP from May, which usually acts as a reversal point once it gets filled, then we should be really aware of a potential bounce around 7000 area, specifically 7400 – 6300!
As always, the count always needs to be confirmed, so we will be watching very closely when/if comes into the support zone . And, if BTCUSD is really going to rebound in strong and impulsive manner later, then we will be looking for longs, but until then we have to patiently wait!
Trade smart!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
What can we learn if BTC decouples from ALTs & Dominance drops?This last move was important to pay attention to and be aware of whats going on in the markets. Bitcoin has been dominating the landscape for some time and for good reason. It has the most exposure, it has large funds being able to invest in it, etc, etc.... People were creating ways to get into the crypto craze and found ways to do it.
I am not hear to pinpoint on exactly when to get in. I am hear to tell you that if you are sitting on the sidelines mulling around whether or not it's a good time to get in, please consider this chart. I can throw most any major alt coin and the result will be similar as to the eth and ltc comparison. AS BTC dominance drops, the ALT's rose, along with BTC for that matter. If we are going to have a massive alt season 2, this will be the time to get in and HODL. If you are targeting ETH, will it matter if you get in at 150, 200 or even 250 if it goes to $1,200? No, it won't. If you wait for more confirmation, you could possibly miss a large move to the upside. Maybe it goes down more before it goes up, no one knows. If we take a step back for a moment and look at bitcoin dominance we can see what story it is telling. The first and most obvious is that when BTC domiance dropped in 2017 prices started to increase. It's important to notice that this happened MID 2017, but people consider the bull run to happen late 2017 if not the beginning of 2018. But if you invested then you were late. You were showing up to the party as the police were arriving. Not a good time.
The BTC dominance MACD is just about to arc over and cross. RSI is very much oversold. The BTC halvening is approaching next year, there are massive advances in crypto, etc... The decoupling exposed itself this last rally when almost EVERYTHING moved up and BTC stayed flat. Of course everything has corrected a bit, but that is to be expected. There are signs they are decoupling and if so it could be worthwhile to begin to take positions for a move up. Almost EVERY cross (ETH/BTC, LTC/BTC, etc..) are at all time lows, priming the pump for another ALT season. Ask yourself this... If ETH went down to $150 even if you bought at $200, would you be angry at having to ride it out? Or more angry if you hadn't bought at $200 and it moved up to $300, or 500? Make sure you evaluate your plan, whether trading or hodling and know the potential of what is going on. Stay disciplined. Could BTC go down to 7k?Could it drag everything else down with it? Very possible, and it's what I have thought until this latest move. Because what if it decouples from alt's and those stay stable or even move up? As evidenced by the recent moves? Compare the latest ETH chart to BTC. It looks like BTC is moving down and ETH to the upside... It will be quite interesting to see where we go and I hope I provided some insight and help for your positions or trading.
Best of luck trading and hodling
-Sherem
4H BTC Waves+ Signal charting, full blindFully blind signal charting followup for Waves+, BTCUSD 4h.
All horizontal lines/signals were plotted with the candlestick chart hidden and not visible. Additionally, this time, all directional trades and exits were determined with the chart hidden.
Additional signal explanation and rationale is detailed in yellow text, annotated on the chart/indicators.
8/10 Trades closed in profit (green checkmark). 2 Trades marked with red X were below 2% profit margin, and are considered a loss unless high leverage is used.
Setup/configuration:
Initial setup with Waves+, DOSC (Derivative Oscillator) with signal line disabled. 1-2 bar delay on signals to provide accurate/realistic demonstration of entries/exits (on bar close).
Waves+ has the LSMA line enabled (dark blue).
Waves+ is a hybrid wavetrend fibbonaci oscillator.
Waves+ components:
Light blue line = Waves line
Dark blue line = LSMA line
Red line = Mmenosyne follower (fib line with medium speed)
Green line = Mmenosyne base (fib line with slow speed)
Shaded yellow zone = Explosion Zone warning (Ehler's Market Thermometer)
Red/green center dots = TTM Squeeze Loose Fire(red), TTM Squeeze Strict Fire (green)
Lower dotted line = 38.2 fib line
Upper dotted line = 61.8 fib line
Lower dashed line = 25 wavetrend limit
Upper dashed line = 75 wavetrend limit
Blue 1/2 height block = suggested TP from short/drop incoming 1-2 bars
Orange 1/2 height block = suggested TP from long
Chart markup:
solid green = buy/long signal
solid red = sell/short signal
dashed red = early sell/short signal
dashed green = early buy/long signal
dashed orange = suggested exit from long signal
dashed blue = suggested exit from short signal
Trades closed in profit/loss, no stops, marked up on chart:
Trade closed in profit = green checkmark
Trade closed at a loss = red X.
Trades that are less than 2% in profit will be considered a loss for scalping unless leverage is used.
Incremental for this blind signal test will be documented below/updated as part of the trade idea/post.
How to recover a losing trade, earn profit and extend liq markthis is a cooper_5e trading tip for when you mess up a trade and long the local top or short the bottom - why lose money and fees in a losing position, markets go up and down right?
Disclaimer; you must have some sort of idea of market directions, reversal, support/resistance etc.
So...
you longed the top (and think duh why did i do that) :-(
the market turns on you but you dont take loss well and decide to hold as you may do this and hold until you can breakeven (so you can relax)
what you need to do is wait for temporary reversal signs in the market and add to your long (daunting i know)
when the momentum pushes up your loss reduces (yay) but having doubled your stack means your liq is closer now.
when you see its topped out you reduce position (do not close entirely) - nice, youve banked some cash now.
but the banked cash isnt a win yet as all you have done is lower your liq mark - good idea in leverage state
the market drops again and your -% increases, you see reversal - repeat the above steps - more in bank but unusable too.
the market drops agani, repeat, however this time theirs a ripper candle that passes your average entry, this means your in +% and your monies made on the way down are banked as profit :-)
here you can exit at breakeven... or hold for further glory
this is a roulette cheat of double down (oops im giving gambling tips now) where u can take many loss but each time double up until the color you sat on wins, changing direction mid game may continue bad fate
i dont do this technique too often but if im tired or making rash decisions it can be a good way to make money whilst losing to increase the wins when winning ;-)