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Exclusive Update, Bitcoin And Solving The Bart Move Puzzle As promised i would explain my view on why i assumed today's bear flag was NOT a Bart move. There is more to is than just these 2 moves, the bigger picture also plays a part, but i won't get into those details because it would make things too complicated. 1: The spread between high and low 2: A drop and quick move above the previous high 3: Difference in buying volume 4: Bull flag and follow through, on the right a failed one 5: Similar move also similar volume 6: What is the difference here? 7: Left is a triangle shape, right is a bear flag shape 1: First of all, number 1 was the most obvious from the start. Don't mean it already said it would not be another Bart move, but it was an obvious difference, as i also mentioned in my Bitcoin' analysis. On the left it's 150 points and on the right it's 70 points. The one on the left is enough to create liquidations or stops getting hit on a leveraged exchange like Bitmex' which creates fuel to do what they want. 2: A second big clue is number 2, a quick drop and a big move up just as fast and went even above the high of the previous few candles. 3: The high buying volume on number 2, most probably even just bots who are programmed to buy within a certain price range. The high volume shows the order book was filled with sell orders, so perfect opportunity to get a big amount of long positions in. 4: During this drop and bounce up, we can see a small bull flag on the left with follow through reaching the target of that bull flag. First though would be, hmmmm this is a bullish sign. That is true as well, but look at the one on the right, what do you see? We see similar buying volume but no follow through in price? This i want you to answer yourself in the comment section. 5: Explained at point 4 6: Here is where we continued to drop today and bounced up again at the Bart move on the left. This one is not easy to judge, there is a difference in volume here but not significant. On the right it obviously just continued to drop while on the left there was support at that low. 7: The whole pattern on the left has the shape of a triangle while on the right it was simply a bear flag. The orange part was an extra bonus, does not have much to do with the Bart pattern. Now who ever these people are, if it's on entity or simply just several traders who use the similar bots, i don't know. But to make it easy, i always look at the market as if it's me against one big whale. Now the blue circles, you have to see those as if the bots are eating up all the sell orders on the way until a maximum level. Now if their bags or not filled up enough, they simply stop the price there with sell orders or simply just sell walls, unless the rest of the market pushes the price down. So they try to eat up all the sell orders as fast as they can before someone else does it and hit the break at a certain point. Just think of it in that way, makes it easier to comprehend/visualize. Please don't forget to give a like if you appreciate this :) Current Bitcoin analysis:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by botje11
75
HYPERBITCOINIZATION: Adjusting prices for inflationInflation is a measure of a currencies devaluation over time. It is determined by the consumer price index (CPI) which itself is a record of the cost of a standardised basket of goods over time. CPI figures are recorded monthly by governments. Here I use the CPI of the USA. Economists call a price which has been adjusted for inflation the real price . To adjust the price P the formula is simple: P_adjusted = CPI_today / CPI_date * Price_date What this means is that the adjusted-for-inflation price (P_adjusted) for, say, Dec 2014 is equal to the CPI value today (CPI_today) divided by the CPI for Dec 2014 (CPI_date) * the price for Dec 2014 (P_date). Do this for every month in your set. You can see that for Bitcoin this adjustment makes very little difference to the price, because Bitcoin is very young. But if you do this for say gold you can really see how inflation affects value over time. In fact when we adjust for inflation, the 2012 bubble was in fact less dramatic than the 1980 bubble - no wonder, that was the peak of 1970s hyperinflation. Gold was in demand, yet inflation continued to grow steadily since then, meaning today's dollar is worth less than even a 1970s dollar. Going back to Bitcoin, you can move the crosshairs on the main chart and compare prices for a given date. Check the Dec ATH for instance. The price difference will give you an idea of how much the dollar has been devaluing since then. The following chart shows that using July 15 2018 (today) as the reference date, the dollar has lost 14% of its value in real terms since 2010 when Bitcoin trading started.
BNC:BLXEducation
by RealMcafee
5
Bitcoin S-curve with Mining History + Qualitative Hasing RateSome assumptions first: Bitcoin follows an S-curve typical of many growing technologies (and sometimes even stocks/indices): Adoption chart The exact gradients / inflexion points of the S-curve shown here is illustrative, as we cannot know its future development. The hashing rate shown here (brown line) is completely illustrative and represents only the changing trend (which has been increasing or constant since 2010). S-curves (which appear as exponential curves in linear charts) indicate a viral exchange of information which is typical of technology adoption and hype (this is where stocks/indices come in etc) In the case of Bitcoin, although the rate of production is supposed to be constant (hence difficulty adjustment) and therefore cannot affect the price, there is a clear relationship between price development and the development of network hashing rate. The hashing rate develops with the evolution of the mining sector from 2010 hobbyist to 2018 industrialist. The next big boom in Bitcoin will take place in conjunction with the next revolution in mining. There are some 4 million Bitcoins still left to mine. The next halving (block reward reduction to 6.25 BTC/block) is probable in summer 2020. But the halving is not necessary in order to start a new growth phase . In fact the previous two halvings occurred half-way through the growth cycle. Some reading: Controlled Supply Evolution of Bitcoin Hardware Bitcoin hashing rate Bitcoin mining price 2015 Bloomberg mining price 2018
BNC:BLXEducation
by RealMcafee
86
Current ResearchI've been getting some messages about possible collaborations and questions about what I'm working on, so heres a few of my current projects that I will start working on in the next few months. If you have a good background in programming or maths and have interest in these projects feel free message me! I- Holy Grail a) Making the Holy Grail pick peaks and valleys better b) Define zones of ranging, when price leaves these zones then enter the trend trade, range trade in the zone c) Developing classes of new dynamic modulators, based on price and/or volume d) Solving the dominate periods of price, the largest coefficients of the fourier series e) Optimized scaling techniques based on unrealized p/l II- Horizontal Logic a) Identify horizontal lines that when crossed have a certain probability of crossing a next line i) High probability lines will be targets ii) Low probability lines are a good way to probabilistically define ranges b) Find adaptive triggers that can identify good lines that will be crossed c) Quantify these in time d) Classify ranges and trends III- Ichimoku Methods a) Make excessive modifications to cloud for very high probability strategies b) Optimized scaling techniques based on cloud/price information c) Forward test, then automate
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by mcbw_
1