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Drawdown

Surviving Drawdown: The Battle Between You and the MarketThe Battle Between You and the Market Every trader, no matter how seasoned, eventually encounters the nemesis of every strategy: drawdown. It’s that dreaded phase where the market isn’t quite ready to move in the direction of your bias, and your account balance starts to bleed. The key to surviving drawdown isn’t just about protecting your capital—it’s about protecting your mind. The mental toll of seeing your carefully plotted trades go red can lead to fatigue, impulsivity, and, in some cases, abandonment of your well-thought-out plan. But here’s the reality: drawdowns are part of the game. The market doesn’t move on your schedule, and it certainly doesn’t care about your bills, goals, or aspirations. Harsh, but true. In the world of trading, few experiences are as daunting as facing a drawdown. This period, where the market refuses to move in the direction of your bias, can feel like an endless slog through thick mud. It's during these times that trader fatigue sets in, and the mental strain can become overwhelming. But surviving a drawdown isn’t just about weathering the storm; it’s about maintaining focus, sticking to your plan, and emerging stronger on the other side. Understanding Drawdown: A Necessary Evil Drawdowns are an inevitable part of trading, a reality that every trader must confront. They occur when your account equity declines from its peak, often resulting from a series of losing trades. This is not a reflection of your skills or judgment; rather, it’s a natural fluctuation in the market. Accepting this fact is crucial for maintaining a balanced mindset. It’s easy to get caught up in the emotional turmoil that accompanies a drawdown. You might start questioning your strategy, second-guessing your decisions, or even feeling a deep sense of fatigue that clouds your judgment. Recognizing that drawdowns are temporary and often necessary for long-term success is the first step towards mental fortitude. The Weight of Trader Fatigue Trader fatigue is real, and it can manifest in various forms: diminished focus, irritability, and an overall lack of clarity in decision-making. As the drawdown drags on, it’s common to feel like you’re fighting an uphill battle, grappling with both the market and your own psyche. The key to overcoming this fatigue is to remain steadfast in your commitment to your trading plan. Embrace the discipline that brought you to trading in the first place. Remember, every successful trader has weathered their share of drawdowns. It’s not about the setbacks; it’s how you respond to them that defines your journey. Stick to the Plan: The Importance of Discipline When faced with a drawdown, the temptation to abandon your trading plan can be strong. You might be lured into making impulsive trades or deviating from your established strategy in an attempt to “make back” your losses. This is a perilous path. Instead, focus on the process. A well-defined trading plan serves as your guiding compass, ensuring that you stay on course, even when the waters are choppy. Utilizing Alerts: The Power of TradingView One of the most effective tools in your trading arsenal is the alert feature available on platforms like TradingView. Set alerts for key price levels or indicators that align with your trading strategy. This simple act allows you to step away from the charts, minimizing stress and providing the mental space you need to reset. By using alerts, you can disengage from the constant fluctuations of the market without losing touch with your strategy. Instead of staring at the screen, waiting for the market to conform to your bias, you can live your life—confident that you’ll be notified when it’s time to reassess your position. Embrace Patience and Mindfulness During a drawdown, patience is not just a virtue; it’s a necessity. The market operates on its own timetable, and as traders, we must learn to respect that. Implement mindfulness techniques to cultivate a sense of calm and clarity. Engage in practices like meditation, deep breathing, or even short walks to recharge your mental energy. This approach allows you to view the market from a fresh perspective, reducing the noise of frustration and fatigue. Cultivating a mindset of patience will enable you to remain focused on your long-term goals rather than being derailed by short-term setbacks. Keeping Perspective: The Long Game Finally, keep in mind that trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Drawdowns, while difficult, are often precursors to periods of growth and profitability. By maintaining perspective, you can navigate these challenging times with resilience. Celebrate your wins, no matter how small, and remember that every setback brings with it valuable lessons. Surviving a drawdown is an essential part of the trader's journey. Embrace the process, stay disciplined, and utilize the tools at your disposal—like TradingView alerts—to ease the mental burden. By maintaining focus and perspective, you can emerge from the drawdown not just intact, but stronger and more equipped for future challenges. Remember, in the world of trading, persistence pays off. The key to success lies in how you respond to the inevitable ups and downs. Stay the course, and the markets will eventually align with your bias once more.
Education
by TLTurnerTV
Drawdowns: The Silent Mentor Behind Every Great TraderYou know the feeling. You place a trade, and instead of it taking off in your favor, it immediately starts slipping into the red. It happens almost every time, especially if you’re a swing trader. And for some, this drawdown can last for days, weeks, or even months. Whether you're a day trader dealing with quick losses, a swing trader battling long-term dips, or an automated systems trader trusting your system to pull through, drawdowns are part of the game. The real test is how you handle them. Drawdowns don't just test your trading strategy—they test your emotional resilience. They bring out everything you’ve been avoiding in the quiet moments of success: your frustration, your impatience, and that creeping urge to overtrade or take on more risk to recover faster. But here’s the truth: every trader goes through it. The question is, will you let it break you, or will you let it refine you? Let’s start by acknowledging that no matter what kind of trader you are, drawdowns are inevitable. However, the experience varies based on your trading style: Swing Traders: You’re often in trades for days, weeks, or even months. Drawdowns for swing traders can feel particularly painful because the waiting game lasts longer, and you have to watch your positions suffer for extended periods of time. Every day the market doesn’t go your way feels like salt in the wound, which can lead to impatience and frustration. Day Traders: For you, drawdowns happen quickly. They sting but are over within minutes or hours. The upside is that you have frequent opportunities to recover, but the downside is that multiple quick losses can quickly spiral into emotional exhaustion. Automated Systems Traders: Drawdowns are practically baked into your system. Your strategy will go through periods of underperformance, and it takes faith in your backtesting and system to stay calm during these equity dips. Automated systems traders rely heavily on data and probabilities to keep going when the human instinct is to intervene and tweak the system. Regardless of the type of trader, the emotional reactions during a drawdown are largely the same: frustration, anger, and the urge to do something—anything—to make the pain stop. But this is where most traders go wrong. The more emotional you become, the worse your decisions get. The Universal Lesson from Drawdowns: Emotional Mastery Every time I go through a drawdown, whether it's small and quick or stretched out over weeks, the same battle begins. The mental anguish starts, and I have to fight the urge to increase risk, take revenge trades, or break my rules to “get back” at the market. And I know I’m not alone—this is the trap every trader faces. Managing the Emotional Rollercoaster The hardest part of a drawdown isn’t the financial loss; it’s the emotional toll it takes on you. Here are a few hard lessons I've learned from navigating these emotional storms: Stay Calm: One of the most important things to do when you're in a drawdown is step away from the screen. Seriously. Walk away, reset your mind, and remind yourself of your strategy. Panic trading to recover losses almost always makes the situation worse. Stick to Your Plan: During a drawdown, your trading plan is your lifeline. If you’ve backtested your system and trust your edge, you have to rely on that, even when you want to break the rules. For swing traders, this means sitting through those painful days or weeks of drawdown. For day traders, it means not overtrading to make up for losses. For automated traders, it’s about trusting the process even when the system isn’t performing at its best. Accept That Most Trades Start in the Red: Here’s a reality most traders don’t think about. Nearly every trade starts in a drawdown. It’s a rare occasion when a trade instantly moves in your favor. Whether you’re swing trading or day trading, it’s normal for a trade to dip before finding its direction. Understanding this will help you manage the emotional spike that comes with seeing red right after entering a position. Drawdowns are the ultimate teacher in trading. They expose the cracks in your emotional armor and show you where you need to improve. Here are the key lessons I’ve learned: 1. Patience and Discipline Are Everything I can’t emphasize this enough. Patience is a trader’s superpower, especially for swing traders. Watching a trade go against you for days or weeks without panicking is tough, but it’s necessary. The longer your timeframe, the more patience you need. This is especially important when your strategy is sound, and the probabilities are in your favor—trust the process. 2. Understanding Probabilities Reduces Emotional Reactions If there’s one thing that can save you from self-destruction during a drawdown, it’s understanding probabilities. When you think in terms of probabilities, you realize that a drawdown is not a personal attack from the market—it’s a statistical inevitability. For instance, if you know that your strategy wins 60% of the time, you’ll understand that those 40% of losses aren’t signs of failure. They’re just part of the overall probability game. 3. Trusting the Process Confidence in your system is crucial, particularly for automated systems traders. Your system might be in a drawdown now, but if you’ve backtested it thoroughly, you know the drawdown is temporary. It’s tough to sit through weeks of underperformance, but that’s the reality of trading with a strategy that works over time, not over every single trade. Trust the data. 4. Drawdowns Always Test Your Risk Management Your ability to survive a drawdown is a reflection of your risk management. During a drawdown, it’s tempting to increase your risk to recover losses faster. But that’s exactly what you shouldn’t do. Risk management is what keeps you in the game long enough to come out the other side. It’s better to reduce your position sizes during a drawdown and ride it out than to blow up your account trying to recover quickly. Practical Tips for Managing Drawdowns 1. Build a Drawdown Plan Before you face your next drawdown, create a plan for how you’ll handle it. Will you reduce position sizes? Will you pause trading if your account dips by a certain percentage? Will you stick rigidly to your system no matter what? Having a plan takes the emotional decision-making out of the equation when things get tough. 2. Diversify Your Learning with Strategy Games Games like poker, chess, and even blackjack teach you a lot about probabilities, patience, and decision-making under pressure. Poker, in particular, mirrors trading in that it’s all about playing the hand you’re dealt and managing your emotions in the face of uncertainty. 3. Visualization Is Key Visualization is a powerful mental tool, especially during drawdowns. Spend a few minutes each day visualizing yourself handling the drawdown with calm and confidence. Picture yourself making rational decisions, sticking to your plan, and trusting the process. This practice reinforces the behavior you want to see when the pressure is on. Drawdowns Are the Ultimate Teacher Drawdowns are painful, frustrating, and emotionally exhausting. But they are also the best opportunity you’ll get to grow as a trader. They teach you about patience, discipline, and the importance of risk management. They force you to confront your weaknesses and develop emotional mastery. The next time you find yourself in a drawdown, remember: it’s not the drawdown itself that matters, but how you respond to it. Stick to your strategy, manage your risk, and trust the process. Surviving drawdowns is what separates the successful traders from the rest. Embrace the lessons they teach, and you’ll come out stronger every time.
Education
by TheFxAce
9
WHAT IS TRADING ACCOUNT DRAWDOWN | 3 Types Of Drawdown Explained In my videos, I frequently use the term "trading account drawdown ". Many of you asked me to explain the meaning of that term and share some examples. What is Trading Account Drawdown? The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at a certain period of time. Imagine you started to trade with 10,000$ account. At the end of the year, your account size reached 15,000$ . However, at some point through the year the deposit value dropped to 6,000$ . It was the absolute minimum for the one-year period. At some point, your net loss was -4,000$ or 40% of your account balance. The account drawdown is 40% . ❗️Knowing the account drawdown is very important for the risk assessment of the trading strategy. Usually, 50% and bigger drawdown signifies an extremely high risk. 3 Types of Drawdown 1. Current drawdown - a temporary drawdown associated with the negative total value of opened trading position(s) at present. Once you start trading with 10,000$ deposit, you open several trading positions. Being opened, with the constant price movements, your potential gains fluctuates from positive to negative. For example, with 3 active trades : EURUSD ( -500$ at present); GBPUSD ( +200$ at present); GOLD ( -100$ at present) Your current account drawdown is -400$ or 4% of your deposit. 2. Fixed drawdown - the negative value of the closed trading position(s) at present for a certain period of time. While some of your trades remain active, some are already closed . Imagine the same deposit - 10,000$ . On Monday you opened 6 trades, 2 still remain active ; 4 are already closed . Your total loss from your closed trades is -500$. Your fixed Monday's drawdown is 5%. 3. Maximum Drawdown - the maximum observed loss from the highest value of the deposit before a new maximum is reached. Starting to trade with 10,000$ you are already trading for 5 years . Your account were growing rapidly and at some moment it reached 25,000$ . Then the recession started. You faced a dramatic loss of 12,500$ before you started to recover. That was the maximum observed loss for the period. Your maximum account drawdown was 50% . ❗️Different types of drawdown give a lot of insights about a trading strategy. Its proper assessment will help to spot a high risk strategy and to find a conservative one. Constantly monitor your account drawdown and always check the numbers. What is your highest account drawdown?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Mastering Drawdowns: Strategies for Resilient TradingEvery trader, novice or seasoned, knows the sting of drawdowns. While they're inevitable, managing them effectively is key to trading success. Even the most renowned traders face drawdowns. Consider Richard Dennis, the legendary Turtle Trader, who transformed a mere $1,600 into over $200 million. Surprisingly, he experienced drawdowns of over 80% at times so I've read :). This might seem outlandish to some but perfectly normal to others. His approach worked well for his personal trades, but when he tried managing others' money via a hedge fund, it was a different story look it up its a good story for your mindset. Ultimately, it isn't the magnitude of the drawdown that's critical. It's your psychological response to it that dictates your success in handling it. Here's how I've personally navigated through drawdowns over the past 14 years: Focus on the Percentage, NOT the Amount: Previously, seeing the monetary loss during drawdowns sent me spiraling into panic and fear. The root problem? Focusing on the dollar amount, leading to emotionally charged decisions. Shifting focus to the percentage value changed everything. A 10% drawdown is more digestible mentally than a $10,000 one. This shift minimizes negative emotions and consequential mistakes. Confidence in Your Trading System: The depth of drawdown you can stomach ties directly to your trust in your trading system. If you know your metrics and trust your approach, you'll be more resilient. Confidence-building measures include thorough backtesting, simulation trading, and initiating with smaller live trades. Diversify Trading Accounts Based on Risk: I've always maintained three types of accounts: low-risk (60% capital, <10% drawdowns), moderate-risk (30% capital, <20% drawdowns), and aggressive (10% capital, high drawdown limits). This structure is possible thanks to the faith I have in my trading approach. Prioritize Mental & Physical Wellbeing: Trading is grueling, both mentally and physically. To stay sharp, you must be in peak condition. Regular exercise, like my 12-year practice of Muay Thai, offers stress relief. Meditation, another tool in my arsenal, helps maintain calm and focus. Trading is a journey, with its fair share of ups and downs. What I've shared is my compass through the stormy seas. Hopefully, it lights up your path too. Happy trading!
Education
by TheFxAce
15
Metrics: DrawdownDrawdown is the metric used to measure the decline in a performance curve relative to a previous peak. It represents the distance between a maximum point in the capital curve and its subsequent minimum. This indicator can be visualized in relative terms (%) or absolute terms (€, $...). In my opinion, I always recommend using relative data as it makes the analysis more intuitive. From this concept arises the maximum drawdown of a strategy, which indicates the maximum percentage loss between a peak and a trough over a specific period of time. This period can range from the last month to the entire historical series, known as the drawdown from origin. Therefore, drawdown is used in the risk assessment of a system, both on its own and in combination with other related measures that provide a higher degree of information.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JRiquelmeTrading
1
Educational: Relative Drawdown vs. Absolute DrawdownUnderstanding the concepts of relative drawdown and absolute drawdown is crucial for effective risk management and evaluating the performance of trading strategies. In this publication, we will delve into the understanding of both relative drawdown and absolute drawdown. 🔷 Relative Drawdown: (Sometimes referred to as equity drawdown) Relative drawdown is like looking at how much your money went down compared to the highest amount of money you had in your piggy bank before it started going down. Relative drawdown measures the decline in equity relative to the previous peak value, expressed as a percentage. It provides a proportional view of the drawdown in comparison to the highest equity point achieved. Traders often utilize relative drawdown to assess the performance of their trading strategies over time. By calculating the relative drawdown, traders can determine the percentage loss from the peak and evaluate the strategy's ability to recover from losses. For example, if a trading account reaches a peak equity of $10,000 and subsequently experiences a drawdown with a low point of $8,000, the relative drawdown would be 20% ($2,000 decline divided by $10,000 peak). A higher relative drawdown indicates a more significant loss relative to the previous peak, potentially highlighting the need for adjustments in risk management or strategy refinement. 🔸Relative drawdown provides traders with insights into the consistency of their strategies and the extent of losses experienced during adverse market conditions. It helps them compare the drawdowns of different strategies or trading systems using a percentage-based metric, enabling a better understanding of risk exposure and the ability to set realistic expectations. 🔷 Absolute Drawdown: (Sometimes referred to as balance drawdown) In contrast to relative drawdown, absolute drawdown quantifies the actual monetary value of the decline in equity from the initial balance to low . Continuing from the previous example, if the lowest equity point during the drawdown was $8,000, the absolute drawdown would be $2,000. Absolute drawdown focuses on the actual amount of money you lost from the starting point to the lowest point. It helps us understand the total decrease in money without comparing it to any percentages or ratios. 🔸By understanding the absolute drawdown, traders can assess the real monetary value lost during a drawdown period, which helps in making informed decisions regarding position sizing, risk allocation, and overall portfolio management. It also assists in evaluating the effectiveness of risk management strategies in terms of limiting losses during drawdowns. NB: It is worth noting that it is important to clarity when discussing balance base drawdown as the balance base drawdown can be calculated based on the starting balance of each day or trading session which in this case will have a drawdown calculated based on a dynamic balance as oppose to the static initial balance. ----------------- Relative and absolute drawdowns play a vital role in assessing the performance and risk exposure of trading strategies. While relative drawdown provides a percentage-based view of the decline in equity from the peak, absolute drawdown quantifies the monetary value of the loss. Traders should consider both types of drawdowns to effectively manage risk, set realistic expectations, and make informed decisions about their trading strategies. Remember, understanding and managing drawdowns are key elements of long-term success in the trading world. It's important to understand that drawdowns are a natural and inevitable part of trading. No trader, no matter how experienced or skilled, is immune to drawdowns. Here's a simplified explanation of why drawdowns occur and why traders should not be discouraged by them: When you play a game, there are times when you might make a mistake or encounter challenges that cause you to lose points. Similarly, in trading, the market can sometimes move in a way that goes against your expectations or trading strategy, causing temporary losses in your trading account. This decline in the value of your account is known as a drawdown. Drawdowns occur due to various factors, such as changes in market conditions, unexpected news events, or even errors in decision-making. Markets are influenced by many participants, and their behavior can be unpredictable at times. Therefore, it's natural to experience periods of drawdown. Traders should not be discouraged by drawdowns for a few important reasons: 🔸Learning Opportunity: Drawdowns provide valuable lessons for traders. They offer insights into potential weaknesses in their trading strategies or areas where they can improve their risk management. By analyzing drawdowns, traders can refine their approach and enhance their trading skills. 🔸Long-Term Perspective: Successful traders understand that trading is a long-term game. Drawdowns are often temporary and can be followed by periods of profitability. By maintaining a long-term perspective, traders can ride out drawdowns, knowing that their overall success is determined by their ability to stay focused, adapt, and stick to their trading plans. 🔸Risk Management: Drawdowns highlight the importance of proper risk management. Traders who implement effective risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders, diversifying their portfolios, and managing position sizes, can limit the impact of drawdowns on their overall trading performance. 🔸Psychological Resilience: Drawdowns test a trader's emotional resilience. Successful traders understand that emotions like fear or frustration can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. By developing emotional resilience and maintaining a disciplined mindset, traders can navigate drawdowns more effectively and make rational decisions based on their trading plans. 🔸Consistency is Key: Consistency in trading is crucial. Drawdowns are part of the journey to profitability. Traders who remain committed to their strategies, continue learning, and adapt as needed have a higher likelihood of success over the long run.
PEPPERSTONE:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
2
RISK less with Drawdowns and more with Winning StreaksA drawdown is a period of decline in the value of a portfolio. This is where you take a number of trades, and the losses drop the portfolio at a marginal level (if you know what you’re doing). During these times, the market is typically more volatile (jumpy) and unpredictable. And so you have a higher chance to risk money in unfavourable times. Risk less with drawdowns When your portfolio drops 6%, 8% or even 11% – This is where you’re not sure when the market will become more favourable. This is the time where you decide to risk less money per trade. You would drop the risk from 3%, 2% to 1.5% or even 1%. Then keep trading until the markets pick up and start to favour your portfolio… Once you’re out of the drawdown then… Risk more money with the winning streak During the winning streaks, the market is typically more stable and predictable, and the chances of making a profit are higher. You can then pump up the risk back to 2% or 3% (if you’re a risky biscuit). When do you do this? When your portfolio is either BACK to an all-time-high. Or when you can see the market has broken out of the sideways consolidation and volatile period. Risk management is an important aspect of successful investing, and adjusting the amount of money being invested based on market conditions is one strategy that can help investors achieve their financial goals. By risking less money during drawdowns and more money during winning streaks, you as the trader can lower your potential losses and maximize your potential gains.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
How To Handle And Minimise Your Losses in A DrawdownI want to cover different ways to handle yourself during a drawdown to minimise your losses. Minimise Drawdown Part #1: Lower your risk per trade There are times when the market will be in a bad market environment… This is when no matter whether you buy or sell, you end up just taking a whole bunch of losses. The first trick is to pinpoint when the market is in a bad environment. For me as a breakout trader, I wait for the main index to move in a sideways trend. This way, I know I have a medium to low probability of the trades to work out. If you can find out when the market is in a bad environment, then you’ll know when to lower your risk. In my case, I drop the risk from 2% per trade – down to 1.5%. If my portfolio continues to drop, I will lower the risk further to 1% per trade until the market rectifies itself. This is the first way to minimize your losses. Minimise Drawdown Part #2: Lower the number of trades you take You’ll know when the markets are looking S#@t all around. This is because the large stock markets tend to lead the emerging markets. And when this happens, the second best thing you can do is limit the trades you take. If you find you’re averaging around five to nine open trades at a time, it might be time to start cutting down. Because what if all nine trades end up to be losers, due to the bad market environment? Well you’ll find yourself down around 18% of your portfolio. So instead, limit the number of trades you’ll hold during the drawdown phase. Maybe it will four to five instead… Just remember that being neutral and holding cash is ALSO a trading position. Minimise Drawdown Part #3: Hedge your positions This doesn’t always work, but it has saved my ass a couple of times. When I find I’m long (bought) five stocks. And I see that the market has completely changed direction to the downside. I know that there is a higher chance that I’m going to get stopped out. So to limit my risk, I’ll immediately look at stocks that I can trade short (sell). For example, I am currently long four stocks. And all four stocks are in a the negative. So, in the last two weeks I’ve decided to short three resource stocks (as a hedge). This way, I’m now down only 3% of my portfolio rather than 5% since the drawdown… Minimise Drawdown Part #4: Other ways The other powerful way to control your drawdown is to lock in profits when the trades are going your way. You can think of it as a trailing stop loss. I personally often raise my stop loss when the market moves where the risk to reward is 1:1… This way I know I’ll lock in a gain, should the market turn against me. There are many ways you can adjust your stop loss including: • Trail the stop loss as the price moves further away from the trending Moving Average • Trail the stop loss after the market’s price moves a certain percentage • Trail the stop loss when you see volume starting to drop • Trail the stop loss when an indicator is oversold or overbought • Trail the stop loss after the market’s price moves to a certain risk to reward FINAL WORDS Drawdowns are inevitable. And you need to know how to manage your Drawdowns… You now have some ideas on how to handle your drawdowns better. Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader (Financial trader since 2003) Feel free to follow my socials below. I love writing about trading and sharing my 2 decade experiences.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
How Much to Recover After a Trading DrawdownA Drawdown is a drop in a portfolio value after one or more trades. It’s when the portfolio dips from the highest high. Once you’ve entered into the inevitable drawdown phase, you’ll need to know how much you’ll need to recover. That’s where the drawdown calculation comes in… The Drawdown Formula to recover after a portfolio drop Let’s use three examples of traders with drawdowns. Example #1: Timon is down 5% of his portfolio in the last three months. Example #2: Alex is down 50% of her portfolio in the last three months. Example#3: Artemis is down 76% of their portfolio in the last three months. Next we’ll need the Drawdown Formula Required gain = -1 Let’s put in three drawdown percentages to see what we need to recover to get our portfolios back to what they were… EXAMPLE #1: Timon’s drawdown = 5% Required Gain = – 1 = – 1 = 5.26% EXAMPLE #2: Alex’s drawdown = 50% Required Gain = – 1 = – 1 = 100% EXAMPLE #3: Artemis’s drawdown = 76% Required Gain = – 1 = – 1 = 316% In the above examples, I need to recover 5.26% of my portfolio to get it back to its highest level. While Alex and Artemis needs over 100% and 316% to return their portfolios to what they were. Now you know how to calculate what you need to recover after a trading drawdown. FINAL WORDS Do you now get that you need to take your drawdowns more seriously? With any business or venture, you should always be wary when you enter into a tough time. In fact, you should never be down more than 20% on your trading portfolio, business or in any other financial venture… Once you start going below 20%, it will take a heck of a lot longer to get back to what it was… That’s why this article is only part one… Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader (Est. 2003) Feel free to follow our socials below.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
WHAT IS DRAWDOWN | 3 Types Of Drawdown Explained 📚 Hey traders, In my videos, I frequently use the term "drawdown". Many of you asked me to explain the meaning of that term and share some examples. The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at a certain period of time. Imagine you started to trade with 10,000$ account. At the end of the year, your account size reached 15,000$. However, at some point through the year the deposit value dropped to 6,000$. It was the absolute minimum for the one-year period. At some point, your net loss was -4,000$ or 40% of your account balance. The account drawdown is 40%. ❗️Knowing the account drawdown is very important for the risk assessment of the trading strategy. Usually, 50% and bigger drawdown signifies an extremely high risk. There are 3 types of drawdown to know. Current drawdown - a temporary drawdown associated with the negative total value of opened trading position(s) at present. Once you start trading with 10,000$ deposit, you open several trading positions. Being opened, with the constant price movements, your potential gains fluctuates from positive to negative. For examples, with 3 active trades: EURUSD (-500$ at present); GBPUSD (+200$ at present); GOLD (-100$ at present) your current account drawdown is -400$ or 4% of your deposit. Fixed drawdown - the negative value of the closed trading position(s) at present for a certain period of time. While some of your trades remain active, some are already closed. Imagine the same deposit - 10,000$. On Monday you opened 6 trades, 2 still remain active and 4 are already closed. Your total loss from your closed trades is -500$. Your fixed Monday's drawdown is 5%. Maximum Drawdown - the maximum observed loss from the highest value of the deposit before a new maximum is reached. Starting to trade with 10,000$ you are already trading for 5 years. Your account were growing rapidly and at some moment it reached 25,000$. Then the recession started. You faced a dramatic loss of 12,500$ before you started to recover. That was the maximum observed loss for the period. Your maximum account drawdown was 50%. ❗️Different types of drawdown give a lot of insights about a trading strategy. Its proper assessment will help to spot a high risk strategy and to find a conservative one. Constantly monitor your account drawdown and always check the numbers. What is your highest account drawdown? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Editors' picks
Education
by VasilyTrader
15
ACCOUNT DRAWDOWN – HOW TO AVOID IT?Today I want to touch on a very important topic - account drawdown. Every trader will face this problem sooner or later, because losses in the forex market are inevitable. And if a professional knows what to do and has experience dealing with such a problem, then beginners often get lost when faced with a drawdown, which leads to even greater losses. What is a Margin Call? Margin Call - is a "call"-notification of the broker with a requirement to deposit additional funds to guarantee open transactions. If no additional funds have been received to the trading account after the Margin Call, and losses continue to grow, then when the price reaches a certain value, the Stop Out procedure will be launched, and the brokerage company will automatically close part, and possibly all transactions on the trading account. Causes of drawdown. There are two possible reasons. The first reason for the drawdown is a bad trading strategy. Each strategy needs to be checked and only then use it. No risk management will help if the strategy is unprofitable. The second reason is psychology. Even if you have a proven strategy, you can still lose money because you lose control of the situation. Discipline is the key to profitable trading. To act according to the strategy and even after a series of losses to adhere to the plan and not exceed the value of risk management - that's what a professional does and a beginner misses. Newcomers try to regain what they have lost by opening deals with a large volume, risking even more money, driving themselves into an even greater minus. First of all, you need to put up with losses, it is impossible to avoid them! Accept losses, do not lose your head, trade further according to the rules and then you will not only return, but also earn even more money. An important thought! Every beginner should remember that the more he loses, the more he will need to make profits in the future in order to reach zero. It is very difficult to make 50% of the profit to the capital in one transaction. It is almost impossible to make 100%, but beginners do not understand this and invest a lot of money, open positions with a large volume and lose even more. Losing 1% is not so scary, losing 10% you need to do 11% already to get to zero. Having lost 50% in the future, you will need to make 100% to go to zero! Don't bring your account to this. Remember: it's better to move up slowly than to fall down quickly and crash. Decide on the drawdown level. Professionals do not let their account fall below reasonable values. A beginner brings his account to exhaustion in two or three transactions. For a beginner, a drawdown of -50% or -70% occurs easily and quickly, a professional cannot afford this. Each trader must decide for himself how much percent of the capital he can lose and still remain calm. For each person, these values are different, someone cannot survive a 20% drop in the bill, and someone lives quietly with -50%. Drawdown levels up to 15% – normal working drawdown. 16-30% is not a reason to panic, but the time is coming to reduce the risks and intensity of trading. And it is also worth reviewing the state, dynamics of the market and the trading instrument. 31 - 60% is the beginning of the end. If the account is down by more than 30%, trading should be stopped and a break should be taken. After that, come back with a modified strategy for making trading decisions. Drawdown is an unpleasant thing, but the main thing is not to start it and not to delay the time after exiting it. If you have already fallen into a drawdown, then you need to follow the following rules: If you use a proven trading strategy that has repeatedly made a profit, then you just need to fix losses and continue trading using the same strategy, but with a more gentle money management system. If the trading strategy used is no longer effective, then you should fix the losses and look for a new working trading system. Due to the fact that there are no exceptionally accurate methods to exit the drawdown, your further actions will be reduced to the same trade. In this situation, the trader should identify weaknesses in his strategy and try to eliminate them. The revision of approaches to risk management and funds will also allow you to balance trading and avoid deep drawdowns in the future. Be disciplined, follow the money management, trade systematically, and the drawdown on the deposit will not bother you. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with Like. Thanks for your support!
Education
by DeGRAM
6
Performance distribution of retail investors and hedge fundsMy thoughts about performance. This kind of info is not very available so I have to do some guesswork. We that spend all day in front of the computer expect to get better returns than 10% a year. But we have no idea what is possible and where we "rank" compared to others. All academics look at ever is day traders, yes 99% of day traders lose money and 1% earn peanuts while taking huge risk, we get it. And sometimes they look at passive investors. Cool. But no one ever says anything about active investors or Forex speculators, just that "on average active retail investors outperform", how wonderful, the average, yes I'd call myself the average normie definitely LOL! And regulators are even worse, all they care about is protecting dumb money and scaring people away from day trading. The french "market authority" on television was literally screaming "flee Forex it is dangerous, you should fleeeeeee!", I kid you not. First we look at retail investors. So the french "market authority" (AMF) looked at FX & CFD brokers representing about half of the individual FX & CFD investor population. 14799 persons in the 2009-2013 period. They found that over 4 years close to 90% of traders lost money. This is another of their deceptive tricks. It's just as with science these days, the data says something, the abstract says the opposite. So according to the extremely biased french AMF OWN DATA: - 30% of traders are in the "0" column, and according to their own data there aren't that many traders with tiny accounts, so ~30% breakeven. - They refuse to give any % result, some may be recalculated by overall we do not know, therefore I will assume it does not look as bad (or they'd show) - 5% of all investors make 2/3 of the losses, or at least half - 1% of all investors only are actually making significant returns (and 2/3 of the total) - As always day traders that destroy the stats are mixed with the rest - Most "winning" traders are barely above 0, making just a few hundreds to thousands a year www.amf-france.org From other sources and the AMF sort of confirms this, we know that: - Losers (especially big losers) that stick to investing, the ones that never give up never surrender in the face of adversity, the courageous ones with "heart", ye these guys, their losses get bigger and bigger actually. - Most winners continue to win and their profits get bigger. Here page 19, this is for stocks, we can see the net monthly market-adjusted returns of 62,439 households a large discount brokerage firm from January 1991 to December 1996: - On average, as they keep hammering us with, they underperform the market by 0.14% (each month!) - The average individual investor gross returns are slightly above the S&P 500 index returns (page 3) - The average individual investor net returns are slightly below the S&P index returns (about 91% of the S&P) - The S&P returns a bit less than 1.5% monthly - The worst of the worst managed to return -20.85% below index monthly, probably a permabear day trader or something - The 1st percentile is at -4.86% below market, 5th at -2.45%, and 25th -0.73% - The 99th percentile is at +4.44%, 95th +2.15%, 75th +0.50% - The best individual investor got 48.35% above market MONTHLY - The best individual investor difference between net and gross is minuscule, obviously it is not a day trader, probably some lucky investments - The gross median return is at -0.01%! faculty.haas.berkeley.edu So it seems this is how it goes, a normal distribution: We do not have that much info, and what little there is is rather hard to find, and hidden behind mountains of trashy scams "how much money can I make day trading join my course". I really only care about my own performance but it's always interesting to see how it's all distributed, what is possible, etc. For some reason I am interested in patterns and statistics. Funny. The info does not get shared a lot. Based on research and what gets exchange it seems most "traders" are VERY interested in money and "lambos" and very few are interested in stats, patterns, numbers. Ye I mean what do stats and figures have to do with investing right? It's not about some numbers it's about how much money you can make trading on a phone and what you will do with all of that money right? Honestly if we eliminate day traders that already make up at least 2/3 of FX investors, and all the lambo trolls that hate numbers but "it's ok I manage my emotions", it's not 10% making money but 30% at least I am sure, and 10% making decent money (enough to start a real career). Would be nice if they could just once separate day traders and look at FX investors with a time horizon greater than 1 day. All we can do is guess more or less, obviously more than 10% of these make money, but has to be less than 50% very probably. 10 to 50%, that's pretty wide. Probably in the 20-40 range, that's all I can say with high certainty. Hedge funds next. Hedge funds were doing great in the 90s and Morgan Stanley has a doc about them here: www.morganstanley.com Page 6 we can see discretionary funds making 18% a year with a max drawdown of only 5%. For all strategies except perma-bear the max drawdown is smaller than the annual returns. With all the regulations and harder market (and little fixed income) the results today are probably not as good but I do not think they are extremely different either. My guess on how hedge funds fulfill their max drawdown obligations is they place most the money somewhere safe (92% of the whole in case of an 8% drawdown) and then they risk the entire 8%, they might give a bit of it to each of their traders that go aggressive, and if they return 100% on the 8% that's an 8% return overall. I'm pretty sure that's the idea. But they might not freeze the entire capital and go 10X leverage, maybe they do something more complicated, with 50% in cash/bonds, 30% in "safe enough" investments, and 20% in high risk active trading with a max drawdown of 25% on these 20% (so 5% overall). The definitely do something like this, have to. The serious ones at least. The S&P returned 17.2% with a max drawdown of 15.4%, and page 4 we can see again a normal distribution: - The median directional return yearly was 16.3% (0.9% below market!) and median max drawdown 28.5% - The 75% percentile made 20.5% (3.3% above market), remember retail 75ers were 0.50% above mkt monthly - The 25% bottom only make 11.1% which is 6.1% below market for the year - Stock selection has similar drawdown and the returns of the 25, 50, 75 are 12, 17.2, 20.9 - There are no giant losers or giant winners but there aren't 66000 funds, and they have restrictions - In particular So actually pretty similar thing. The major difference is around 15% of the retail stock investors lost money in a raging bull market and no hedge funds did (except the few bears I guess). Otherwise, same normal distribution but with less extremes for hedge funds, they're more compact around the center (market).
Education
by MrRenev
1
Understanding draw down recovery 😬😥Morning traders. Middle of the trading week all ready! I thought I'd take this opportunity to discuss a topic we all fear and we all find ourselves in at some point in our trading journey. That topic being draw down and your account in a loss of starting capital. The table I have drawn on the chart shows the amount of gain required to get an account back to break even depending on how big the draw down is on your capital. Scary stuff when viewed in a simple table format like and hits home just how big of task over turning losses could be. No trading system or strategy has zero losses or draw down and all strategies endure losing runs. To avoid excessive losses there is two crucial elements. Sounds obvious but cut losing trades quickly is the first element, second element is factoring probability into the trading strategy. Probability helps control risk management which in turns keep losses to a minimum, probability is obtained by carrying out back testing on your strategy. You can't plan for probability in your risk management if you have no data for your strategy. The example I am using for this Idea is on AUDCHF H1 timeframe and thanks to our built in strategy tester I can see if I traded this pair in the manner the strategy is set over the last 292 trades at 1% risk I am 22% down on my account. It would not take in the region of a 25% account gain to be back to near break even on my account!!! You don't need a built in strategy tester to gain this information you can also manually back test a strategy in order to avoid losses and to know if you are entering markets with a proven edge. A trading edge means your strategy creates bigger wins than losses. Which in turn means you avoid the situation shown in the table. To avoid hefty draw down don't enter the markets blind with an unproven strategy. Ensure you have back tested strategies with probability factored in to those strategies that way what is shown in the table wont apply to you then 👍 ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
FALSE Trading Expectations #3... Win Rate (continued) I lose a lot of the time. A large amount of my trades are stopped-out for a loss. This does not make me a bad trader, it actually makes me a real trader! Most profitable traders are right only 40%-65% of the time. A lot of traders understand that there will be losing trades. What they don't understand is that there will be consecutive losing trades. Even a strategy that has a win rate of 65%, could have 10 consecutive losing trades, maybe even more! This does not make the strategy unprofitable or not worth using. Conclusion... Expect a lower win rate. A win rate of around 50% is ideal. Expect to have consecutive losing trades. Also expect to have consecutive winning trades.
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
Trading with WRONG expectations... #1Almost all traders understand the concept of a drawdown - a period of loss making. A trader is not going to have a 100% trade win rate - there will be losing trades - and there will be times of consecutive losing trades. For some reason, despite understanding this concept, many traders don't ACCEPT this concept. Let me explain... As soon as a trader hits a drawdown, the reaction is panic or discouragement. The following statements could flood the mind of the trader... 'The strategy is not profitable anymore' 'I need a more profitable trading strategy' 'I am going to lose too much, so I will reduce my position sizes' 'I need to increase my position sizes to win back these losses' 'I am so angry, I am going to risk all that I have left in my account' In other words, the trader becomes emotional and let's his emotions determine his trading decisions. This will always result in long-term failure. Conclusion... Accept that drawdowns will happen and expect drawdowns to happen, because they will happen!
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
13
How much to risk per trade? Returns and drawdowns.Between 1990 and June 2000 the median hedge fund (there are not that many that started in 1990) had an annual return of 16.3% and max drawdown of 28.5% according to MORGAN STANLEY. Keep in mind the 2/20 destroys profits. (16.3%*1.25)+2% =  22.4%, and 28.5-2 = 26.5%. So what the median fund actually did I I did not mess it up was get 22.4% return a year and a max drawdown of 26.5%. Of course that drawdown is the worst over a 10 year period. The S&P 500 has an annual return of 17.2% and max drawdown of 15.4%. What is interesting is to look at the details, for example the few specialist credit between 90 and 00. The smallest return one had this to show: 11.5% annual, -4.9% max down. The biggest return one had this to show: 17.4% annual, -19.4% max down. More returns but with much more drawdown. Here is the paper: www.morganstanley.com A portfolio of hedge funds, since they're not all completely correlated, would do much better than the S&P500 in particular on the drawdown side. Renaissance says their medaillon fund uses an average of 12.5 leverage and takes 8000 trades at the same time 4000 short & 4000 long to reduce risk even more. If this is true it means going in each position with 0,15% of their account. Not sure how far their stop is but has to be less than 10% of a share price, this means a risk of 0.015% per trade at most, now since there are 8000 at the same time it would be 8000 times more than this, but since there are shorts and longs it sorts of evens out and who know what their real risk is? All we know is it is very small that's for sure. But leverage costs money, and what RenTec did was since their risk was so small and they do a ton of volume, they partnered with banks that offer them extremely cheap leverage. And then they averaged 66% a year in the past 30 years, with a fund capped at 10 billion. The secret is diversification, it reduces dramatically risk which allows for better returns. But we have to come up with this diversification, not easy to find another good place to invest in, another good uncorrelated strategy. And when we find those additional sources, we are not RenTec we have to pay a big price for leverage so we cannot just scale it hard. Certain "strategies" will help reduce risk but they also cap returns much and leverage is not free so it might not be worth it depending on the person. I just want to take a look at a few non-managed "low fee" "safe" no brain funds. Examples for the 10-year period ending January 31, 2017: Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund (MUTF:VASGX) has a Maximum Drawdown of 47.6% and annual return of 4.7%. UBS Global Allocation Fund (MUTF:BPGLX) has a Maximum Drawdown of 48.7% and annual return of 2.6%. This fund has the rather unappetizing combination of low return and a large Maximum Drawdown. LoL this is so bad. And all the grandpas are loving it, they think they found the holy grail and pat each other on the back. Add to this the fact that most people withdraw at the worse time... Over the same 10 years period the S&P500, returned an annualized 7.024% dividends reinvested (4.8% otherwise) with a max drawdown of 57.8% From 2000 to 2020 (september) it had annualized returns of 6.23%. From 1871 to 2019 it returned about 9% (dividend reinvested) - 6.8% if we adjust for inflation, with a max drawdown of Adolf Hitler & Auschwitz the ultimate price. So we're about in the average with 6%. Growth is slowing down (demographics, tech limits, earth limits...) so we will probably average less than 6% in the future. From 2007 to 2017 the top strategic DIY portfolio recipes had returns of ~typically 11% with max drawdowns of also about 11%. Ray Dalio pure alpha 2 has returned 11.5% / yr in the last 20 years and max drawdown I'm not sure I think it was 8% recently and much less before that. Those numbers are hard to find seriously... But well we get an idea of how far it can get pushed. An article from 2017: "Investors earned an average of 4.67% on mutual funds over the last 20 years (Source: www.creditdonkey.com)" of course there is no mention of drawdown because who cares am I right? Mutual funds are not for the best & brightest of investors. Big risk is not a magic trick. "Big risk" does not mean "big return but with big risk". It means NO returns. It means losing with a winning strategy 😂.
Education
by MrRenev
1
3 Simple Tricks to Recover from a Drawdown like a Pro3 Simple Tricks to Recover from a Drawdown like a Pro. In our private client area, we often talk about the importance of understanding drawdowns. The first step in dealing with drawdowns is to acquire the right mindset that is conducive to trading. Do you want to learn how to live through the daily drawdown that is almost inevitable and all traders must go through? Statistics have shown that the majority of your life trading career will be spent in drawdowns. If you spend so much time in a drawdown, it’s important to learn how to recover from drawdowns. With that said, here are 3 trading tips you should use to help you recover from drawdowns: #1 Know the Maximum Drawdown of Your Trading Strategy Through effective backtesting methods, you can actually discover the maximum DD of your trading strategy. This will mentally prepare you for them. If a trader learns how to develop an awareness of what will happen to his account during a drawdown period, you’ll have the mental capacity to cope with the drawdown and stick with your trading strategy through these tough times. That’s assuming you have a profitable strategy. If you can’t learn to master this discipline, then you’re better off to stick to algorithmic trading and let the robot do the job for you. Automation will often eliminate counterproductive emotional decisions. #2 Cut Back Your Position Size Another thing you can do to cope with the painful reality of drawdowns is to risk per trade or the position size. Contrary to the popular belief that teaches you to increase your risk, so you can accelerate the recovery process, that type of behavior is very destructive for your account balance. Aggressive pyramiding to escape a drawdown is even worse. Take for example, how legendary trader Richard Denis thought the Turtles to handle drawdowns. When drawdowns occurred, they would reduce the trading size from 2% down to 1.6%. They would continue to cut back their position size if the DD was extending. This preventive action is for self-preservation of your capital. Learn it, and use it in your favor. #3 Increase your Risk-Reward Ratio A positive and big risk to reward ratio is part of every successful trading system. To escape a drawdown faster you need to learn how to increase your risk and reward ratio. One of the most effective methods to improve your RR ratio is to perfect your entry strategy. By having a better market timing you can keep your stop-loss very tight, thus further limiting your losses. With a RR ratio of 1:3, you can escape a drawdown period pretty fast even if your win rate is still somehow very low. If you can make a pact with yourself and not flinch in the face of adversity when your risk tolerance is reached your daily mental battle is half won. Final Words – Drawdown in Forex Trading In summary, drawdown forex is the most important risk metric because DD can make you switch your trading strategy if you have too many consecutive losses or if our losses last for too long. Forex drawdown can literally kill your account if you don’t know how to recover from a drawdown trading period. The only way you’ll never experience a drawdown is if you stop trading. You need to accept the reality that the drawdown in forex trading is inevitable There is no such thing as risk-free returns. You need to work smart not only to make profits but to also keep those profits. With that said, you only need to keep in mind these three drawdown trading rules, if you want to manage DD like a pro: Know your historical max DD Cut back your trading size Increase your RR ratio Thank you for reading!
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
1
Forex Trading Admin BoardSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Forex Trading Admin Board Over the past 18 years of trading the markets I have always had an admin white board next to my main desktop computer. This has kept me disciplined and methodical in my trading approach. I am very regimented and disciplined and I try as hard possible to limit the amount of errors in my trading. Below is a list of some of the elements that i have on my white board to prepare my self before, during and after trading the markets; 1. Economic Calendar events for the trading day (time, Asset and Importance of the news event) 2. Notes for the day ( What to improve on, how am i feeling,Goals for the day/week/mont, Mission statement, Date.....) 3. Monthly drawdown SOP 4. Risk per trade 5. Risk per capital 6. Individual checklist 7. Orders ( currently in or maybe coming up in the near future) 8. Watch-list ( any assets that may have a potential - Inline with my strategy) 9. and lots more.... I have an extensive amount of information on this board. Listed above is just a quick taste of what it in-tales. Please let me know if you any questions Happy Trading :)
TVC:GOLDEducation
by SMPTrader