F-GBP
Overview of GBPUSD - VideoA quick overview of my current position on GBPUSD.
Looking at GBP on the whole, I think there is the possibility for more upside and continued momentum.
(Here is the code for the basket I use GBPAUD*GBPCAD*GBPCHF*GBPJPY*GBPNZD*GBPUSD*GBPEUR)
GBPUSD still looks good to me but it looks like we are about to see a consolidation/correction in the very short term.
Watching for now, but will be looking to buy on dips.
GBPAUD - EDUCATION - 23. JUNE. 2019Welcome to DACapitalTrading, We provide any kind of Technical and Fundamental Analysis
for Forex and Crypto-Currency Markets every day!
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1 HOUR
Very bullish price action..
4 HOUR
Price forming several HH and HL indicating a bullish pressure pattern.
DAILY
Sideways waving market found resistance now and is slowing down.
OVERALL
Price action is slowing down and found resistance, expecting a last push to the upside forming new H4 Highs
before heading back down to average price movement and psychological support level.
Will update everyone on monday!
Good luck
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Have a great week everyone!
ALAN
Wait for the Easy Set-ups and the purpose of Trading I often have traders ask me, how can I get alot of trades? And my response is that is the wrong question, the purpose of trading is to make Money, Period. It is, imho, to make as much money as you can in as few trades and in as little of time as possible. Although I have several methods of trading, the SS MA method, shown here is my absolute favorite. It has an 87% success rate with a healthy 3-1 RRR.
That said, I often ask those same traders "If you could consistently make 6-12% per week but could only take 2 trades, would you do it?" The answers are surprising as again, imho, anybody that says anything but yes really needs to rethink why they are trading. You should not be trading for the excitement, you should not be trading just to hit buttons. You should be trading so you can sit on a beach with the cocktail of your choice in hand.
to that end, I would implore you to come up with your best trading methodology and trade only that. As I have prominently posted between my monitors, as a reminder to myself "Wait for the easy set-ups and don't do anything stupid in the mean time" :)
How I trade News with high probabilty and a Great RRR :) Trading news can often be a nightmare especially trying to trade at the time of release as brokers often widen their spreads
and slip orders to the extreme of the spike.
This is a high probability method with Great RRR
As you can see the market spiked up on worse then expected AUD GDP news.
then the market went into a consolidation, and this is key to finding great entries.
After the market consolidated for at least 60 minutes, look for a support level for a buy
and a resistance level for a Sell.
Place a limit order at the support/resistance level with stop appropriate for the pair.
(in this example I am trading GBPAUD - my fav, so I use a 20 pip stop)
Place your profit target at 5x your stop. This gives you a Robust 5-1 RRR.
let the trade unfold. If you have any questions, either place them in the comments or message me
Hope this helps :)
Allen
When Not to TradeSometimes it is better not to trade. Today for me, was one of those days. I was extremely tired, which happens from time to time as I get up at 1:30 am my time to trade. This can lead to mistakes. Today's trade idea is a good example, although GBPAUD was in a bullish run and I was looking and posted an idea for a pullback trade, there was signs of a reversal. I believe if I was awake and thinking clearly, I would have seen these signs from the beginning. Fortunately, I was able to close my long trade for a small gain (+ 5 pips). The following is a list of indications that I missed because I was tired.
First, The market had already pulled back and bounced off of my moving average, so it is less likely to happen again;
Second, the Ma was flattening, as opposed to staying in an uptrend, which is never a good sign;
Third, I missed that the market had hit the 60 min Senkou A, which can always be expected to provide resistance;
Fourth, The market fails to hold bullish as evidenced by the long wicks. Moreover, This is a great indication that the market
is getting ready to reverse and a great selling opportunity
IMHO, Trading is hard enough without making avoidable mistakes. I hope this helps others
Allen
GBPAUD Long example of how I tradeWhen looking for trades, my purpose is simple:
I look for High probability trades with good RRR (risk reward ratio)
I consider a trade high probability if it has an 80%, or better, historical success rate.
A good RRR (risk reward ratio) is 3-1 or better. meaning that we are risking $1 to make at least $3
Understand that by maintain a 3-1 RRR, even if I lose over 50% of the time, I will still make money. Combine that with High probability trades and your golden.
That said, there are not a lot of trade opportunities that met this criteria everyday. So I am not the guy who is going to post alot of trades, most days I only take 1 trade. I risk 2% per trade,( because I have earned that right which is a different conversation), to make 6%. Generally, I will net 15-20% per week.
I start with a strength and weakness anylasis from the prior day's trading and rank the currencies
numerically. for example today "S GBP 5" means that GBP was ranked 5th while "W AUD 7" Aud was ranked 7th
obviously GBP was stronger than Aud. So we start the day with a Buy bias. this is confirmed before I start trading, which is generally at the European open (currently 2am est).
I then look at multi-frame analysis using Ichimoku Kinko Hyo concepts. Primarily the Kejun-Sen (KS). I look at the Daily the 60 and the 15 min Tf's.
Ideally, price will be above/below the KS on all 3 tf's, but the Daily as in this example is not necessary. Moreover, we need price above/below the Ichimoku Cloud.
Next is the Asian box, if the market has consolidated during the Asian session, as it often does, I will mark the high and low, creating a box. In the example above, we have the 60 KS (blue line), which is above the cloud at 1.82119. that is the bottom of the box as it is a place that found support during the Asian session. The Daily Senkou B, in this case provides the top of the box. Generally, the Daily Senkou's A and B, provide solid resistance or support.
Putting it all together, in the above example, since price is above the 60 Ks, the 15 Ks and the cloud in the conformity with our directional bias, we have a Type 1 trade, which has an 87% success rate. these trades are Great!!!
We have 2 potential buy entry points:
1st is a pullback to the bottom of the box at he 60 KS
the 2nd is a breakout trade. However because in this example we are using the Daily Senkou B as the top of the box we need a close above it, not just penetration.
As you can see the 2:45 candle closes above the Senkou B and we can enter a long trade. Using a 20 pip stop and a 60 pip profit target. This hits perfectly (what a great example) but seriously you can look back at my other trade idea's and see similar results .
I hope this provides a general idea of what I am trying to do tradewise. feel free to hit me with any questions
AGold 54
GBP USD Weekly analysis a lot clearer Picture of direction Recently we posted our Cable analysis
The weekly chart clearly shows a better picture
Fib levels on the channel are correlating and can be useful
though many traders dought using a FIB in this way , it can be helpful as you can see levels here are holding
Use the FIB extension for further targets and pivots
British Pound Will Move Up Against the U.S. DollarThe British Pound has been challenging strong resistance with increasing volume. Looking at the chart long term, weekly time frame, I am getting signals telling me that it might move up against the U.S. Dollar, here is why:
Now trading above EMA10 and EMA50.
Hitting higher lows since October 2018.
Increasing bullish volume.
Bullish RSI.
MACD trending up and entering the bullish zone.
Looking at the U.S. indexes, such as the SPX, can support the findings on this chart.
You can see my latest analysis here:
Russell2000 (RUT):
Conditions for change: If the October 2018 low is taken out, then this analysis would become invalid and a new one is needed.
Feel free to hit like to show your support.
Thanks a lot for reading.
Namaste.
GBP/AUD BREAK>RETEST SETUPGBP pairs have closed above previous daily high's & GBPAUD also closed above 1.875 so we will more than likely see GBPAUD head to the next key area which is 1.9000. We could see a potential break and retest and go long for a nice 250 pips.
To summarise...
KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE AREA HAS BEEN BROKEN. So we wait for a retest and rejection before going long.
If that doesn't play out wait for a candle to finish outside of the Uptrend before entering, possible even M/A cross over to help with entry.
British pound analysis Good evening guys,
Ive just released 2 ideas POUND-related and now i'll explain why im bearish on gbp so far, this is a GBP FUTURE chart for the current month.
First of all, on the left chart im not using traditional candlestincks, im using the Point N' Figure chart, its a great chart for those who wanna avoid the "noise" of the market, very good on stocks as well.
We can see on these chart gbp is breaking a structure support so far and the upwave volumes are too low showing there is not too much demand for gbp.
On the middle dailychart we can see the ascending trendline and gbp is just testing it now, a breakdown will confirm bearish behaviour for gbp.
On the left chart we can see that gbp is lacking demand so far with low volume up-candles.
This is just a reflection on what we can see on the other trading ideas, gbp is bearish now.
Now the most important thing is, gbp is BEARISH NOW, what about tomorrow? tomorrow we can have some news about brexit or anything else on eurozone that can shake the market, cant we? =)
Thats why stop losses and proper money management on trades are a MUST.
When and if i have some good audience i'll create some educational posts explaining about my trading style and philosophy.
Enjoy? leave a like =]
This is just an educational post and not a trading signal.
GBPUSD SHORTAnalysis:
-Strong break to the downside creating new LL (Includes gap from the weekend)
-Retest of the 70-79% zone
-Perfect MA test
-Floor broken and now being treated as a ceiling
-There is a lot of strength to the upside but perfect setup opportunity
Emotions:
-Same as the XAUUSD Long this morning
GBPAUD Short Technical Analysis:
-Price broke below the MA pretty aggressively
-Now retesting the purple zone which was previous support
-Confluence between the zone and MA
Emotions:
-Saw price reacting to this level a little late, price wicked the kill zone to a T but now I may have missed the entry already. Not rushing into this trade, set my limits just in case price decides to wick up there one more time. But if the targets are met then I will delete the pending orders.
** Saw this trade just a little too late and may have missed the entire entry, but regardless this is a good lesson to see how well price reacts to this setup.**
GBPNZD Short Technical Analysis: (Same Exact Setup As GA)
-Price broke below the MA aggressively
-Broke below purple zone which was previously a strong floor and now retesting
-Confluence between all three indicators
Emotions:
-I came into this setup a little late, I was eyeing this earlier in the morning and had it on my watch list but, I just saw this trade and am not getting to it pretty late. That is okay though because I am not rushing this trade. I have my limits set and if price comes back one more time I will be ready but if not at least the analysis was correct and validates that these setups are working.
**Currently not in the trade as I was writing this and probably will not enter due to the volume of price being pushed down**
Dont be a D#@k... its DUCK honestly ;p Here we have some really strong support and resistance levels drawn on the chart ( green lines ) They are classed as strong because price touched them and then bounce a number of times ( I will let you figure these out for yourselves... I'm not spoon feeding you ) ;p
You can also see a lovely trend line TL that has been touched more than once, so this is also classed as strong.
Now because these levels an TL are strong a break of any of these could see a big move, again you can see all this on the charts.
When price is these key levels in NO MANS LAND we tend not to take a trade, we will wait for price to retest these levels and wait for a break or a bounce before jumping in a trade. I keep saying it and I will keep saying it until you get p#@sed off with me...... but patients is key!!!!!!!
Get the larger timeframe charts up ( we like to use 1 day and 4H charts ) and zoom all the way out... this will make spotting these levels so much easier.
So don't be a D@#k and practise this... it will make you a more profitable trader.
I hope this has helped you.
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