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Decoding the NFP Report: Trading Strategies.In the dynamic world of forex trading, strategies that cater to the ever-changing market conditions are invaluable. While fundamental analysis is widely embraced in stock trading, its effectiveness in the forex market is often questioned. Unlike the stock market, where financial statements can significantly impact individual stocks, the forex market is influenced by a myriad of factors, including central bank policies and political leadership. In this article, we explore the limitations of fundamental analysis in the forex market and delve into an intriguing momentum trading strategy centered around a key macroeconomic indicator—the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This strategy harnesses the unpredictable yet powerful market reactions triggered by the release of NFP data, offering traders a unique opportunity to capitalize on momentum. Fundamental Analysis in Forex: Fundamental analysis, a staple in stock trading, faces challenges in the forex market due to its limited impact on currency exchange rates. Forex stability relies not only on economic indicators but also on the nuanced decisions of central banks and political leadership. Despite these challenges, successful forex trading doesn't necessitate rigid adherence to a specific scenario. Traders can leverage price momentum and increased liquidity to execute effective impulse trading strategies. Non-Farm Payrolls Trading Strategy: The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) trading strategy capitalizes on the release of crucial U.S. economic data—the Non-Farm Payrolls report. This multicurrency strategy is applicable to all currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar, allowing traders to explore numerous assets simultaneously. The primary objective of this strategy is to capture price momentum, making it adaptable to various time frames. Non-Farm Payrolls: Predictable Unpredictability: The NFP report, published every first Friday of the month, serves as a linchpin for speculative traders. It provides insights into the strength and growth of the U.S. economy, consequently influencing the value of the U.S. dollar. The report focuses on the non-agricultural sector, which contributes significantly to the nation's GDP. The sheer importance of the NFP report lies in its ability to reflect the health of the U.S. economy. The release of this data sparks maximum market volatility, with prices witnessing rapid fluctuations, often ranging from 100-200 points in a short period. However, interpreting the aftermath of the news poses a unique challenge due to the simultaneous release of unemployment statistics, which can sometimes contradict each other. Despite the inherent unpredictability, the NFP trading strategy capitalizes on the strong price spikes triggered by the news release. While predicting post-news price behavior may be challenging, the strategy offers a systematic approach to navigate and profit from the volatile market conditions that follow the NFP announcement. Rules of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Trading Strategy: Stay Informed with an Economic Calendar: Use a reliable economic calendar to stay informed about upcoming NFP releases. The economic calendar will help you track the scheduled date and time of the NFP report. Check for News Release Postponements: Understand that postponements of data releases are common in economic calendars. Monitor the calendar regularly to stay updated on any changes to the scheduled release time of the NFP report. Utilize a Trusted Economic Calendar: Choose a reputable economic calendar platform to ensure accurate and timely information. The provided link www.tradingview.com can be a valuable resource for tracking economic events. Prepare for High Volatility: Recognize that the release of the NFP report triggers significant market volatility. Prepare for rapid price movements and be cautious about entering trades during the initial moments following the release. Focus on the Non-Agricultural Sector Employment Data: Prioritize the non-agricultural sector employment data within the NFP report. This indicator is crucial for gauging the strength of the U.S. economy and can have a substantial impact on currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar. Monitor Unemployment Statistics: Simultaneously track unemployment statistics released alongside the NFP report. While the primary focus is on non-agricultural employment, an understanding of unemployment trends can provide additional context for market reactions. Be Cautious of Contradictory Data: Acknowledge that data within the NFP report, especially non-agricultural employment and unemployment figures, may occasionally present contradictory signals. Exercise caution during such instances, as market predictability diminishes. Wait for Initial Volatility to Subside: Post NFP release, wait for the initial surge in volatility to subside before considering trade entries. Initial reactions can be impulsive, and waiting allows for a more informed decision-making process. Consider Multiple Currency Pairs: Since the NFP report influences the U.S. dollar, the strategy can be applied to various currency pairs involving the dollar. Explore multiple pairs simultaneously to identify the most favorable trading opportunities. Implement Risk Management: Prioritize risk management strategies to protect your trading capital. Set stop-loss orders and determine the appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance and account size. Practice on Demo Accounts: Before implementing the NFP trading strategy in live markets, practice on demo accounts to familiarize yourself with the dynamics of the strategy and refine your execution. Continuous Learning and Adaptation: Stay informed about changes in market conditions and continuously adapt your strategy. The forex market evolves, and traders need to adjust their approaches based on ongoing developments. By adhering to these rules, traders can enhance their effectiveness when employing the Non-Farm Payrolls trading strategy and navigate the unique challenges posed by this high-impact economic event. Traders often seek strategies to capitalize on this volatility, and one popular approach is the Pending Orders strategy. In this article, we'll explore the intricacies of the Pending Orders strategy , shedding light on its advanced nature and its application by both novice and experienced traders. 1 ) Pending Orders Strategy: Set Buy Stop and Sell Stop Orders: Minutes before the NFP publication, set two pending orders: Buy Stop and Sell Stop. These orders are strategically placed 25-30 points away from the current price to avoid simultaneous triggering due to heightened volatility. Manage Triggered Orders: When the price reacts to the news release, triggering one of the pending orders, promptly delete the other as a non-operational scenario. This prevents both orders from activating simultaneously. As observed in this image, during the latest NFP event on Friday, December 8, 2023, the price exhibited a robust bearish impulse immediately after the report release at 5:30 pm. This triggered our sell stop pending order, shifting our trade into a profitable position. Following the bearish movement, the strategy aims to close the buy stop position (the opposite direction). At this juncture, traders should take proactive measures to manage the open position. Stop Loss Considerations: Place a Stop Loss in the opposite order or opt not to set it at all, provided the second pending order remains intact to limit potential losses. This ensures that the remaining order acts as a safeguard against adverse market movements. Trailing Stop for Profit Maximization: Implement a Trailing Stop to secure profits. Continuously adjust the Trailing Stop as the price advances, allowing you to capitalize on the maximum price momentum. This dynamic approach helps lock in gains while navigating the evolving market conditions. As depicted in the image, the price, after experiencing a bearish movement, rebounds upward. What could be the reason behind this? The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report assesses the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment in the previous month. For this specific event, the forecasted unemployment rate was 3.9%. However, the actual percentage revealed in the report was 3.7%, indicating a lower number of individuals unemployed and actively seeking employment in the preceding month. This positive deviation from the forecast serves as a favorable signal for the USD, prompting an upward movement in its value following the event. In currency markets, an 'actual' percentage lower than the 'forecast' is generally considered beneficial for the respective currency. By the way, Short-term trades had the opportunity to secure a few pips in gains after the activation of the Sell Stop order. Strategy N.2 Meanwhile, in this other image, I have marked a vertical line at the recent NFP event. Additionally, I've incorporated a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) to illustrate the short-term trend. After the release of this significant economic news, you can observe an increase in volatility. This could serve as a component of a monthly strategy where the release of such news acts as a trigger. This second scenario or strategy, especially for beginners, is considered much safer. By analyzing the NFP report results, understanding economic dynamics, and gaining insights into the potential continuation of the trend or a possible pause for a reversal, traders can make informed decisions. In conclusion, it's essential to backtest the presented strategies and conduct a forward backtest in a demo account. Your thorough understanding and application of these strategies are crucial. Thank you for taking the time to read my article.
Education
by FOREXN1
3
10-6 Using Price/Fib Theory To Catch NFP MovesThis short video shows you how I used Fibonacci Price Theory techniques to identify trends, catch the biggest moves in price today on the SPY/SPX500. This is an instructional video - attempting to show you how to use PRICE (the ultimate indicator) to help you learn to become a better trader. How did I know price would REJECT at $425.40 this morning and sell downward? How did I know the bottom would confirm near $421.20? How did I know the price rejection near $421 (after the bottom) would result in a bullish rally phase? Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us: Price must always seek higher highs or lower lows - ALWAYS. Failure to establish higher highs means price will attempt to make lower lows. Failure to make lower lows means price will attempt to make higher highs. Watch the video. Ask questions if you have them. Price is the ultimate indicator - use it.
FX:SPX500Education
by BradMatheny
Positive NFP Data for the USDNFP May 2023 - 339,000 jobs have been created. While this sounds like a good thing, it’s also a bad thing. The entire point of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates was to ‘slow down inflation’ by making people lose their jobs, in turn leaving them with less disposable income to flood back into the economy. What this NFP data shows is that the current interest rate hikes aren’t working, so this will now be another excuse for the Federal Reserve (really the US government) to be more aggressive with rate hikes, which will end up destroying the economy. This’ll create higher unemployment rates, higher mortgage rates (people default & lose their homes) & higher poverty. This’ll have a knock on effect on the global economy such as the U.K. World Economic Forum - “You Will Own Nothing & Be Happy”
TVC:DXYEducation
by BA_Investments
What is Non-Farm Payroll and How to Trade It? 📚 Hey traders, This week, on Friday, we are expecting Non-Farm Payroll Report. In this educational article, I will try to explain to you why that fundamental data is so important and I will share with you the insights how to trade it. Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most important indicators for forex and stock markets in the economic calendar. Being released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it shows the number of new jobs created by the US economy during the previous month, excluding farm sector, government and not for profit organizations. NFP accounts for 80% of the US gross domestic product work force. The non-farm payroll is used by analysts to determine the current state of the economy and to predict the future activity levels. For that reason, its release usually triggers volatile movements across all Us Dollar related financial instruments. Being crucially important, remember that NFP is not the only figure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. NFP is the part of the Employment Situation Report that also contains: Unemployment rate, Average hourly earnings, Labor participation rate, Average workweek. The main reason, why newbie traders fail in trading NFP release is the fact that they completely neglect the figures of the Employment Situation Report. Here are some tips how to properly interpret the figures in the report: 1) Non-farm payroll numbers. It reflects the new jobs' creation pace. Higher than predicted rate is usually positive for the US stock market, while the weak rate usually affects that negatively. 2) Unemployment rate. It reflects the number of unemployed people in relation to a total workforce. Low unemployment rate is usually very positive for US Dollar, while higher than expected unemployment quite negatively affects on USD. 3) Average hourly earnings. It reflects the change of the labor cost. The fast increase in the labor cost is usually positive for US Dollar, while the slowing increase is considered to be a bearish indicator for USD. 4) Average weekly hours. It reflects the average amount of paid working hours. The increase in average weekly hours is considered to be a very positive factor for US stock market, while its decrease is considered to be a negative one. Trading NFP report, the one should consider all the figures from the Employment Situation Report. All the numbers should be weighed properly and only then the predictions should be made. Remember that volatility is higher than usual in the hours of news release, for that reason, be careful and never forget to set a stop loss.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
NFP REPORTSHello traders! Today I want to share with you interesting information that can bring you profit. Let's talk about NFP What is Nonfarm Payrolls? Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the number of new jobs in the non-farm sectors of the economy over the past month. The released figures show the dynamics of changes (increase, decrease) relative to the previous period. These statistics cover about 500 sectors of the economy: construction, trade, business services, transport, logistics, financial sector, medicine, tourism, and so on. The calculations do not take into account workers in the agricultural sector, non-profit organizations and self-employed citizens. A change in the NFP value of 100-200 thousand jobs will lead to strong volatility in the quotes of world currencies in pairs with the US dollar, gold and stock markets. Long-term reaction to the growth of non-farms is the weakening of the US dollar against a basket of major Forex currencies; The short-term reaction is unpredictable due to a sharp jump in the rate, leading to the triggering of many pending orders and an unpredictable exit and infusion of huge amounts of money into the markets in a short period of time. Position search An example of looking for a trade setup would be to use 30 pips. It is not unusual for the EUR/USD pair to advance 30 pips within the first few minutes of the release of the report. The larger the initial movement, the better for determining the direction of the pair's movement. After the initial big move, there is usually a price pullback that signals an entry point. Using one-minute price bars, traders draw a trendline from the high of the initial move to the high of the one-minute price retracement (if the initial move was up). They buy when the price breaks above the trend line. If the initial movement was downward, then a trend line is drawn from the low of the initial movement to the low of the price retracement using the same criteria. Traders enter into a short trade when the price breaks below the trend line. Some traders like to wait 5 price bars before plotting a trendline, while others may have experience telling them less or more is better. It also helps to place a stop loss in case the price bar chosen was not the actual price pullback low. If a trader is using the 5 price bar method, then a stop loss should be placed one pip below the low of that move if a long trade is taken. If a short trade was entered, then the stop loss should be placed one pip (plus the size of the spread) above the high formed on the movement of 5 price bars. Profit target To determine an exit position, or profit target, traders use the difference between the opening price and the initial move. The difference is divided in half. The target price is this number. For example, if the initial move was 115 pips, then the profit target would be 57.5 pips. Risk Only enter a trade if your profit potential is at least 1.5 times your trading risk. Ideally it should be 2x or more. In the examples above, the profit potential is about 3 times the trading risk. Don't forget about risk control. Do not risk more than 1% of your capital. Practice Before Using the Method It is impossible to describe how to trade all possible variations of the strategy that may arise. That is why it is recommended to use the strategy on a demo version before real trading. Understand the principles and the reasons why they exist, so that if conditions are slightly different on a given day, you can adapt and not be bombarded with questions. If a profit target seems too bold, use a 3:1 reward/risk ratio target. The goal is to place the target in a logical and reasonable place based on the trend and volatility. The profit target method helps with this, but it is only a guide and may need to be adjusted slightly depending on the conditions of the day. EUR/USD will not behave exactly the same after every NFP report, so it will take some practice to see how these trade setups play out and be fast enough to jump in and trade them. Practice the strategy on a demo account until you show total profit after trading at least five NFP reports. Only then can you consider trading this strategy with real money. conclusions News trading is not easy. During such a period, the price moves quickly. It is worth gaining enough experience to confidently trade on the news, so it is recommended to practice on a demo account. Control the risks, follow the strategy and the profit will come to you. Good luck!
Education
by DeGRAM
3
How to trade at NFP? Usually, average hourly earnings don't print positive. I have seen very few times NFP and Hourly earnings published positive together in the last 13 years. When companies hire more people, it's expected that they don't want to pay more and overtime. But, on the other side, companies don't recruit new people, and then they pay more overtime to their existing workers. That's why most of the time, we see Either NFP prints post or hourly earnings. Hourly earning is essential for the following CPI report. I mean, inflation reports are related to hourly earnings. NFP is the main report; there is no doubt. But in some cases, hourly earnings and unemployment play a significant role than the NFP. Moreover, especially when central banks want to raise rates, in the meantime inflation is essential. Central banks need more than 2% inflation to raise bank rates. In that case, hourly earnings are more important than NFP. So, it is expected that NFP will print positively than the previous report today, and hourly earnings may not fulfill its forecast. But last CPI reports were positive, So, it won't be wrong as well. What to do while you are trading NFP? When central banks are not hiking bank rates market always follows NFP. Whatever the other's reports are. If NFP print is upbeat, we should buy the USD. But keep in mind, though NFP reports are printed positive, hourly earnings and unemployment may drop. It is essential to keep in mind always that the market follows NFP eventually, not initially. So, if other reports print negative, The USD will become weak first. Then, after 5 minutes or 15 minutes, the USD will follow NFP from any swing area. On the other hand, If other reports prints positive but NFP report prints negative. In that cases, the USD will spike to the upside, but ultimately it will drop. Just keep in mind the situation that central banks are in rate-hiking mode or not. So give priority hourly earnings reports when the central banks are in rate-hiking mode. And usually, give priority NFP reports every time. How To Handle Technically While Trading NFP? If you want to handle the market at NFP, you should know swing trading and the uses of Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci extension. Use 5 minutes candle. For example, the market closed with 5 minutes bearish candle, NFP printed negative, and other reports printed positive. So, the USD will spike to the upside first. So, if you are good at swing trade, you can sell from the swing area. Otherwise, you should use Fibonacci tools. If the market closed with a bearish candle, that means it will correct to the upside nearly 50% fibo area. So, go short from fibo 50% area and use Fibonacci extension tolls to set your take profit area at 61.8%. Just do opposite things if NFP prints positive and other reports prints negative.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
XAU/USD - CHART ANALYSIS - NFP ! The gold market still has a path to $2,000 in the second half of the year as the precious metal is undervalued in a world awash with liquidity, according to the latest research from Bloomberg Intelligence (BI). In a report published Wednesday, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at BI, said that within the metals complex, gold appears to have the most potential when compared to other assets like copper and aluminum. "Copper and aluminum are reaching upper range price caps, but we see gold as a discounted bull market with improving fundamental underpinnings," he said in the report. "The copper-to-gold ratio has reached the highest level in about seven years and a rare disparity vs. declining U.S. Treasury bond yields, which we expect will be resolved by a resumption of the precious metal outperforming the industrial. Looking at aluminum, McGlone said that tightening supply and demand fundamentals are helping to push prices to $3,000 per tonne; however, similar to copper's run to $10,000, he added that aluminum’s rally appears to be unstable. He said that the industrial metal complex faces some challenging near-term hurdles. "Supply elasticity is proving strong for copper, indicating headwinds for the industrial-metal sector, but ESG, electrification and decarbonization trends should maintain the group's upper hand vs. most other commodities, with the exception of precious metals," he said. "Among the most supply-constrained commodities, gold and silver have the relative advantage heading toward the end of 2021 of having experienced sharp corrections within more enduring bull markets, as we see it." While there is plenty of bullish sentiment surging through precious metals markets, gold prices continue to struggle to find consistent momentum. The precious metal is holding support above $1,800 an ounce, but it has been unable to push above $1,820 an ounce. December gold futures last traded at $1,810.80 an ounce, down 0.29% on the day.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by globalsymmetrygroup
How to trade The News Correctly Trading strategies on news for many traders play an important role, since one news can take a very good movement, it is important to observe the nuances of such strategies. The essence of the strategy is to catch the movement and make money at the moment of the release of important news, becauseof which, most often, the volatility of the instruments we are interested in increases significantly, and it does not matter from the direction where the price will go. NUANCES: 1) the entry point is located outside the range, in which the price was moving before the news was released 2) place two identical deals at the same distance in different directions 3) do not forget about stop loss 4) do not forget to set take profit What a trader can get by trading on the news 1) At high volatility , slippage can be obtained. At such a moment, the trader can get both a larger loss than the planned one, or a smaller profit, and quite the opposite. More often slippage is bad for the trader's account 2) False breakout, which can deceive you and give you a loss 3) Bad work of the broker, usually if you use the services of "Kitchen". they "process" a lot of traders on the news in their favor. What news is it permissible to trade such a strategy on: Important news: 🔼 NFP 🔼 Retail Sales 🔼 Trade Balances 🔼 CPI 🔼 FOMC The movement that a trader can pick up can be up to 50-70 points in some currency pairs. What currencies and why 🔼 EUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 USD/JPY These are the most traded currency pairs in the world, gold is not taken into account, the expected movement in these pairs can be up to 50-70 pips. Important to remember ❗ : 🔼 These are the most aggressive strategies 🔼 You, during the news release, have no advantages, without this it is difficult to win 🔼 And it is best not to trade before and after the news release for at least half an hour. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with likes. Thank you for your support!
Editors' picks
Education
by DeGRAM
7
How to trade The News Correctly Trading strategies on news for many traders play an important role, since one news can take a very good movement, it is important to observe the nuances of such strategies. The essence of the strategy is to catch the movement and make money at the moment of the release of important news, becauseof which, most often, the volatility of the instruments we are interested in increases significantly, and it does not matter from the direction where the price will go. NUANCES: 1) the entry point is located outside the range, in which the price was moving before the news was released 2) place two identical deals at the same distance in different directions 3) do not forget about stop loss 4) do not forget to set take profit What a trader can get by trading on the news 1) At high volatility, slippage can be obtained. At such a moment, the trader can get both a larger loss than the planned one, or a smaller profit, and quite the opposite. More often slippage is bad for the trader's account 2) False breakout, which can deceive you and give you a loss 3) Bad work of the broker, usually if you use the services of "Kitchen". they "process" a lot of traders on the news in their favor. What news is it permissible to trade such a strategy on: Important news: 🔼 NFP 🔼 Retail Sales 🔼 Trade Balances 🔼 CPI 🔼 FOMC The movement that a trader can pick up can be up to 50-70 points in some currency pairs. What currencies and why 🔼 EUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 USD/JPY These are the most traded currency pairs in the world, gold is not taken into account, the expected movement in these pairs can be up to 50-70 pips. Important to remember ❗ : 🔼 These are the most aggressive strategies 🔼 You, during the news release, have no advantages, without this it is difficult to win 🔼 And it is best not to trade before and after the news release for at least half an hour.
Education
by DeGRAM
2
Understanding the NFP EU PumpHere are some questions I put out to my community group the other day followed by the answers. The reasoning being the move has been annotated on the chart. Why did price slowly decline prior to NFP? - Price had to decline slightly before NFP to mitigate the impulsive move created earlier in the day. - Price had to stop out break and re-test buyers with a tight stop loss - Price had to lure sellers into the market before NFP Why did price reject the exact box marked before skyrocketing? - Price skyrocketed because it had gathered enough liquidity from stopping out the buyers. - It utilised the previous order block to skyrocket to take out the impulsive sellers before NFP.
Education
by AlkalineFX
XAUUSD - How I caught 580 pips on Gold almost zero Drawdown💰💰Hello Traders😃 I have decided to make this educational post on a trade I took on the 5th of may which took profit after NFP✅ I believe there is a struggling trader who may be having difficulties putting it all together and creating a simple trading plan. The first thing to remember is that trading is probabilities so we try to get as many reasons as possible in our favor before placing any single trade If you see most of my ideas I highlight if a trade is medium probability or high probability and it’s mostly backed by these factors, The more factors in my favor, the higher the probability ⚜️ In this trade I simply used these 5 reasons to get on this trade and all criteria was met perfectly.✊🏽 You don’t need a magic indicator or a lot of lines on your chart to be profitable Remember simplicity is the key 🔑 Just these 5 factors helped me to secure 580 pips on a single trade with a healthy risk to reward too.😊 I caught a similar trade on the 15th of April which I’ve linked below and you can see the factors above Keep things simple and repeatable♻️ God bless you😊 I wish you all a profitable trading career Slick⚜️
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Slickpapi
9
What to do around Major Economic News?Generally, price action traders believe that price discounts every factor that may influence a security's price. But you should Not Ignore Major (High Impact) Economic News Announcements like: Interest Rate decisions, Non-Farm Payroll, FOMC, Crude Oil inventories, and so on... REASON: - If you did take a trade in line with the result of the economic news release you stand to make a lot more money in a very short period of time. - But if your trade direction was against the news, you can walk away with all your profits wiped out or even a loss, and the loss can be huge because markets can move so fast during that period that your stop loss might not get triggered; so you end up losing much more of what you intended to lose. WHAT TO DO? As per my trading plan, I check the news calendar every Monday, and before the news release, I follow the table as per the picture above. Always think in terms of Risk vs Reward. For example: I always target (+2R) double the stop loss size and let's say my trade is floating around +1.8R If the news was in my favor, I would earn that extra +0.2R But if the news was against my trade direction, I would lose the 1.8R In this particular example Risk (losing 1.8R) >>> Reward (earning extra 0.2R) so I close the trade before the news release and book that +1.8R All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TheSignalyst
113
The Top 5 Fundamental Currency DriversThe goal of this article is to understand what really moves the markets. 1. Central Bank Decisions These organizations manage the countries monetary system and policy. They control the countries money supply and operate through specific mandates. Stable inflation is a common mandate applicable to the majority of central banks. Interest rates are a crucial tool used by them to reach their mandates. Changes in interest rates have a tremendous impact on the Forex markets. Rate decisions from central banks can cause lots of volatility. They’re also great opportunities for making money. For this reason, interest rates should be something all Forex traders monitor. Good to start here as a beginner in fundamentals. 2. Economic News Releases News releases like: GDP Gross Domestic Product CPI Consumer Price Index Employment Data like average earnings, NFP, and unemployment Rate could have a huge impact on interest rate decisions and traders always have expectations on these releases if it differs from it market reacts. 3. Geopolitical Events Politicians are an important part of the market moves. Investors seek stable economies, also tax decisions and fiscal policy decisions are drivers of the market. 4. Natural Disasters Things like earthquakes or tsunamis can negatively affect a country’s economy. 5. Intermarket Movements Equities Bonds and Commodities are all connected to each other so one spike in an asset class could lead to moves in the other asset classes too. Things like risk aversion and risk appetite are a daily play on the markets because the risk is a great factor of daily currency moves. Safe haven bids are bonds Japanese yen and Swiss franc in a market crash these assets have money inflows. Hope you enjoyed this small article for more information visit my website vitezabraham.com. Have a Nice day! Vitez
Education
by Vitezabraham
The Best Way to Trade Nonfarm Payrolls!The unprecedented world wide Coronavirus pandemic has put the markets on edge and set expectations really low for virtually all financial data points. Considering this, Non Farm Payrolls came in very strong, or at least not as bad as expected. Stocks reacted accordingly, and this tutorial is about how stocks react to strong numbers. This occurs in three phases: Phase 1: Initial reaction - In the event of a number that the markets perceive as 'strong', stocks will rally accordingly. This usually continues until they hit a Fibonacci level or other technical level, or traders take profits. Phase 2: Retracement/Squeeze - The rally discussed above usually will continue to around 9:00am or so. Don't forget that NFP comes out at 8:30am which is before the North American open. At this point, futures traders have taken profit, and stock traders are gearing up for the open. Watch the Kovach OBV to make sure that this retracement is not a reversal! Phase 3: Continuation at open - At 9:30am, the US markets open, and stock traders clamour into trades pushing the markets up again. Stocks could retrace later on in the day, or set the stage for strong growth in the subsequent week. Hopefully this tutorial can help you set up for some good trades if you see this behavior! If you want to learn more, check us out at Ghostsquawk!
FX:SPX500Education
by quantguy
A reason why you should mix TA and macro analysis... $GBPUSDHey. The chart above provides the perfect reasoning as to why purely looking at price action around market sensitive data points can be your undoing. On Friday we had the NFP number - this was a big beat. However, GBPUSD didn't really move to the downside all that much. This likely led to many getting long, lulled into a false sense of security going into the New York trading session. I'd argue that many seeing the textbook bullish engulfing candle got excited - but the probability of upside is likely not in your favour after such a large beat on a key data point! After all, orderflow is determined by the interpretation of macroeconomic variables. You can read more about this here: (www.imf.org) This is one of those situations where one has to look away from charts and look at the realities of the data - a market hasn't yet made its move on a massive data drop at a time when the Fed are deliberating about cutting rates and you want to get long? No worries, I'll happily take the other side there! It's vital to always keep a macro picture in your head, and add and take away from your view with little bits of information that we're hit with each day, because I guarantee that this will help your trading massively!
Education
by FinkPro