nasdaq to 20k?!good evening,
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consider this post somewhat fictional for now, created more for entertainment purposes, but i want you to know that there are some serious data points which i'm going to bring up to build the case that the stock market has found a long term bottom.
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~our monthly indicator is finally oversold for the first time since 2009 market low and is on the verge of crossing bullish.
~nasdaq is backtesting the monthly ichimoku cloud.
~0.382 cycle wave 4 target hit through a very complex correction .
~the monthly rsi has confirmed a hidden bear.
~the us dollar found a top and is headed down to about 80 bucks over this next year.
~us10y, topped out.
~fed might run out of money if they continue to press the markets.
~fear is at all time high.
~retail short positions are at all time high.
~and i'm buying everything.
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the cycle w5 target on nasdaq sits at $20,000 and we could be in the early stages of beginning that ascension.
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ps. take my words with a total grain of salt, as i could be very much dreaming here.
ps2. in my last big nasdaq post, i called the top, but was early by a few months. it also went a bit higher, so if i adjust the target with the current data, we have reached the 4th wave target successfully.
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1-VIX
VIX GOING BACK UPAfter two false routes (the two white lines), we know for sure that VIX is to go up at some point to make up for the gap it made this week.
The only thing is we thought today's opening would be a higher gap compensating the precedent gap, but it kept getting lower and lower.
Now that we're approaching a low KL, there might be a new opportunity for a long entry, stay advised and always put a tight SL on this.
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear
With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value.
Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark
In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart.
#US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
VIX for a blowout Another VIX post which have been received well in the past.
SPX is due for a huge correction and I think this will begin today, alongside all other major indices.
We see a Cup & Handle formation in the making and I believe that this is soon to be confirmed.
It is also resting on a historical trend line as well as various other resistance related metrics.
Target is very conservative with a lot of room to go past the highs in August. Re asses as this moves.
S&P500 vs VIX vs Copper/Gold Ratio. The rally continues.On this chart you can see the Volatility Index against the S&P500 and the Copper/Gold ratio.
We bring this chart to you in order to show you why we think the long term trend on the stock market will be bullish for 2025.
As you can see, VIX had an odd spike in August, when the stock market corrected to some degree.
Since the 2008 crisis, we have had similar spikes on VIX only another two times March 2020 (COVID) and September 2011.
Alls those times, the Copper/Gold ratio bottomed after a long term decline and started to rise.
This rise started also a rally on the S&P500.
Since the market was unphazed in August, we have strong reason to believe that it will extend its gains in 2025 too.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
VIX volatility index fills the gap, what now?#vix the volatility index has filled the gap shown on the chart as red box. Also TVC:VIX index has broken down the bull flag. But, the question is: "A fake down?"
If vix had did this as a fake movement (and only gap filling dump), then a great volatility awaits all markets, just soon.
US Election, FED Rate Cut, 1,200+ earnings - Here we go!!!It's Election Eve and I thought it was important to share how I'm positioning for the US Election and all of the craziness that it may bring.
Maybe it's all hype, maybe it's the truest test of US Democracy, maybe it's the beginning of the end. I'm not going to opine on political preference. I'm simply going to focus on current levels and what's in play.
Pullback levels for me are all pretty visually friendly with EMA combos on the Daily and Weekly charts. We are 3-4% off from recent highs, the market wasn't in love with Mag 7 earnings last week, pre-election jitters are fairly obvious, and the market will be looking for a reason to do something.
Expect volatility - and I hope it's nothing wild and crazy like Aug 1-5. I discuss the potential concern for a US Election where a winner is not declared and we wait days or longer for an official winner. Also a phenomenon is the Wednesday close for the S&P tends to show solid short-term direction, but I believe that's only if we see a winner Tuesday night for election night (just my opinion).
I'm hedged, alerts are set, it's all happening whether we like it or not. Focus on what you can control in your trading and let's figure it out.
Thanks for watching!!!
VIX Will Go Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for VIX.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 21.94.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 20.13.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Using VIX futures to manage equity risk over the US Election One-way traders can look at expected volatility and movement in the S&P500 over the US election volatility is by looking at the premium or the differential that VIX October futures hold over VIX November futures.
Because the VIX index takes in a series of S&P500 options strikes that blend to create a 30-day implied volatility, the October VIX futures essentially looks at S&P500 volatility over the November US election.
Therefore, the higher the premium for VIX October futures over November futures, the greater demand for volatility over the election and the greater the implied movement in US equity markets.
This can be useful for traders who look at event risk and consider the propensity and extent of movement, and whether they want to hold exposures over that risk.
The code in TradingView to use is - VXV2024-CBOE:VXX2024
US Inflation, Earnings Season Kickoff, Markets on EdgeS&P has failed to make all-time highs
Dow has failed to make all-time highs
Nasdaq has failed to make any new highs
Russell has failed to make any new highs
Oil rips on Middle East escalations
Dollar rips on technical support and bear trap play. Dollar is a big component to the stock markets edging higher for the remainder of the year (e.g. dollar strong = market weak, dollar weak = market strong)
I'm keeping it very simple and staying patient for any "dip" opportunities on indexes, stocks, and watchlist items
I still like Gold, Silver, Bitcoin long as well - again, patient on price action and entries
Major News this week
-US CPI (MoM, YoY, Core and Reg CPI)
-Earnings Season Kickoff - DPZ, DAL, WFC, JPM, BLK and others
Thanks for watching!!!
Q4 Kickoff - US down, VIX Up, Oil Drama, China RipQuick video recap to highlight what's the latest and greatest in the markets.
Oct 1 - Happy Q4
US Big Tech in "big red" today
US Energy in "big green" today - thanks for a wild bid on USOIL
China continues to rip "green" and it's playing catchup quickly
US will have to deal with employment news, inflation news, earnings news, all before the US Election and Nov 7 FOMC Rate Decision (expecting another 25 bps cut)
Major levels to the downside if there's a US market pullback, FOMC lows, gap fills, and up trendline levels (50 period SMA, 100 period SMA, 200 period SMA) but we'll see
Stay frosty out there :)
Thanks for watching!!!
VIX Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
VIX made a retest of
The horizontal support
Level of 14.80$ and then
Broke out of the narrowing
Wedge pattern so we are
Bullish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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