DXY Monthly - King Dollar - ResurgenceThe ADX indicator was rising from 15 (weak trend) to 35 (strong trend) since March 2022 before a recent decline. As the dollar has lost its strength, the ADX rolled over along with RSI. I believe the Dollar will find support here and begin another uptrend. Potentially a violent upswing as the Fed HAS NOT PIVOTED and continues to tighten financial conditions through more rate hikes and continuing QT. The ADX should rise again and I believe beyond the noted resistance of 40. The masses are FOMOing into stocks & crypto yet again with Greed/Fear index at GREED level 63. NAMO/NYMO are also the most elevated in years. $VIX has collapsed to 18 showing FEAR IS ABSENT. A market without fear is DANGEROUS! Protect your #kingdollar as RISK "assets" are primed for a WATERFALL SELLOFF due to over leveraged and over concentrated positions. The DEBT BUBBLE IMPLOSION is near. GL.
1-VIX
Avoiding Risk by tracking VIX, the bull bus might be too crowdedFuture prices are unknowable and unpredictable. But measuring current conditions and valuations are informative. Tracking vix volatility and using it to make better decisions in my experience has been helpful.
Warning: Avoid buying options are generally costly. Options are a form of borrowing money to use leverage provided by an option seller.
VIX Daily - 01132023 BreakdownVIX Daily represented in a Symetrical Triangle coming into the pattern from a bearish stance. This generally signifies a continuation pattern as it has on this chart. Its odd to see the VIX dropping while the SPX is also dropping today. Lets see if that holds. We may get BTD going on and the VIX may retest the pattern as it should.
$VIX close to lower end of rangePre-market we're looking for RED
Sold lil more #stocks after posted we did some selling yesterday (posted elswhere)
Have💵& tons of leverage (only use on occasion)
$NDX should open around yellow line 11270s
$DJI support around 33800s
$VIX clobbered, due for bounce
Have a great trading day!!!
VIX with Historic Spikes AnnotatedLarge spikes in VIX since 1990 highlighted with notes showing the events that caused them. Helps put into perspective where we are now in the markets. The yellow line shows the approximate low of VIX since the pandemic started and the red line shows an approximate line of best fit of when the VIX was low, and markets were calm since 1990.
Collapse,13th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ The inflation number was as expected but managed to inflate equity prices higher. The small cap Russell 2000 leading the charge. This is a big change when the blue-chips were leading throughout last year. Tech is making up good ground as well.
➤ VIX collapsed below 20. Sending a strong signal to "fear" no more. Perhaps that is correct. Looking at the S&P500 chart, there is little resistance all the way up to 410. It is currently battling the 200 day moving average. For many investors, a clear break above this MA is a strong Bullish signal.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: Watch the VIX, it is in the pink zone where Bears have instilled fear in recent times.
LONG VIX: 2023 TRADE OF THE YEAR!LONG VIX:
Add/ double down 19.1, 16.5, 15. Then on any pops remove the higher bids.
Target is 40/50/55 depending on macro circumstances.
VVIX is also systemically undervalued. the vol space is primed for green dildo. volmaggedon was Q12018. i expect something similar. all we need is 0.5%mom core inflation on jan 12th or feb 15th and this will print imo.
$VIX closing in on lower part of trendCOPY paste from elsewhere
Let's talk $VIX again
Different #VIX views:
1 Weekly hasn't closed above grey lines
Long term uptrend
Daily WEAK
2
In symmetrical triangle
Bottom part of trend is likely 2b tested
RSI still positive
IMO would reduce longs @ low end & see how it plays
$SPX #SPX #stocks
VIX Daily Breaking Down out of large Symmetrical trianglePretty large pattern. I wanted to draw it as a diamond reversal pattern, but it was more so because i expected the SP500 to drop not rally today. Nope... Trust the patterns. Lets see how low the VIX can go. It was in the 19's when I published this.....
2% MORE PLEASE,12th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 accelerated higher with full confidence. Gapping up and finishing at the high of the day. All we need now is another 2% more!
➤ Why 2%? It's simple. For most Investors, that would take their 2023 returns to around 5-10%. The current interest rate is around 4-5% pa. All you need to do is exit equities and stick all the money on deposit at the bank...an easy double digit return for the year. Don't worry about 2022...that's ancient history.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: Yes, I'm just kidding, that's not how investing works...NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
A VIX play for newsLook what happened to VIX right after December's CPI release. Equity and bond markets reacted positively, so VIX tanked... but then bounced most of the way back by 12:30.
Traders who are long and want to hedge news could try this play:
Set stops for their longs and buy an appropriate amount of VIX.
If the markets tank, expect VIX to advance strongly, and take a profit as soon as you can.
If the markets rip, wait for VIX to dump and bounce and sell the bounce.
$VIX close to bottom part of rangeHard 2b bear, yet so much NEG DATA
Doesn't make sense, does it?😄
$VIX Long Trend being threatened?
$TNX & 2Yr #yield hovering, higher lows
Getting weirder
US #Dollar $DXY @ level we called few months ago
Things about to get interesting!
#stocks #crypto #gold #silver #bonds
Beware of the vix. I would love to dive into more depth here, but I'd really have to start doing a consistent video series for that. I've been watching time cycles which I've charted on the vix and the SPX for a while and there's a very important region coming up near the end of January.
Those unfamiliar with cycle analysis should go study it a bit as this post won't explain it much. All I'll say is there's a trough/cycle end region coming up near the end of January or very early February, on the vix. The vix charts are messy and cycles are *not* perfect in real life, which is why you have to find a date range and watch price action closely around that time.
My overall picture on the S&P500 is bearish long term still, even after all of this. However, that does not mean it won't still go through big relief rallies first.
In fact, the S&P500 is due for a relief rally, some individual stocks already bottomed last year, some are bottoming now, and some have not bottomed yet. That's the problem with stocks, and index funds, that various stocks, usually by market cap, bottom at different times, and some may start moving up while the big ones continue dragging indices down. In times like this, it is in my personal opinion (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE) that it's better to pick your own basket of stocks than to go with an index fund at this time.
Watch the cycles, they are broad ranges, but something is likely brewing in the vix by early February.
***This is not financial advice, and should not be taken as such what so ever. These comments are a reflection of my personal opinions and charting and should not be used in any way to make financial decisions. Do your own DD***
Excitement, 11th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 reversed yesterday's price action. The excitement is building and it's not because of the inflation data.
➤ Wyckoffians will know what I'm talking about. The recent price action post break out of the small consolidation phase over the last couple of weeks is a classic looking Bullish/Accumulation pattern. It's almost textbook perfect. If it all goes to plan, prices are poised to explode higher.
➤ I remain long with a small position.
➤ Conclusion: Becareful of perfection.
What have we here? 10th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 tried and failed to break the 390 level. It was a thing of beauty if you were a neutral or positioned short. If you were long...🤬🤯🤦♀️
➤ All is not lost. The price did not break back into the consolidation (blue rectangle). The Bulls should still be favoured. It is usual for the price to retrace the break out to test that the break is true. You can refer to yesterday's note about a false break.
➤ I reduced my long position.
➤ Conclusion: The market is anxious. It wants to go up but it's unsure if it should.
EEM: retesting 0.61 and heading lowerEmerging markets is completing a complex correction from an Elliot wave point of view.
The first leg of the C wave started in May21 and is currently retracing before heading lower.
Dollar index broke out and is now retesting the top of its previous range going back till '15.
Secondly EEM and Dollar index are inverse correlated when the market is trending.
VIX lift-off will coincide with this second leg.
The Real Test...9th January 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ S&P500 marched higher to finish above the consolidation phase that I have mentioned in previous posts. The real test is if the price can hold above the breakout.
➤ In order to do so, the Bulls will need to overcome the first hurdle at the 390 level on the SPY. This is not the strongest of hurdles. Price has sliced through this level (up and down) on numerous occasions. It is therefore not the most reliable.
➤ A failure to hold would see prices reverse back into the consolidation. This would not be a good sign and I think the Bears would be encouraged to take advantage to push prices down to 371 at the minimum.
➤ I currently hold a moderately sized long position.
➤ Conclusion: The bulk of the action may centre around the US inflation data on Jan 12th along with the start of earnings season.