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SPX & Bitcoin Correlation & US presidential election #Spx 1D chart; Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart; They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together): *#Nasdaq100 *#Oil *#Bitcoin (sometimes) Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days. Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days. In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin. If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month. SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election: Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17% Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10% After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10% After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
CBOE:SPXLong
by ugurtash
#Bitcoin to US Narrow Money Supply (M1) ratio 1W chart;#Bitcoin to US Narrow Money Supply (M1) ratio 1W chart; I suggest you read it to the end. This type of chart is used to understand how much Bitcoin has gained or lost in value relative to the Narrow Money Supply in the US. In the chart, the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is plotted against the US Narrow Money Supply (M1). M1 includes money in circulation (cash) and demand deposits at banks. This type of ratio can help to understand how valuable Bitcoin is in the macroeconomic environment. In a nutshell; If the chart is rising : Bitcoin is rising. If the chart is falling : The US money supply is increasing. If the US money supply increases and Bitcoin's market capitalization remains the same, then the chart will fall again. It means that Bitcoin is losing value against the US dollar. In short, we need to look more carefully at what is causing the decline. When does the US Narrow Money Supply (M1) appreciate? - Raising interest rates - Economic empowerment - Liquidity reduction The first 2 points above are not hard to guess, but let's elaborate on point 3; The FED may implement monetary tightening policies to reduce the amount of dollars in the market. In this case, the money supply may contract and the value of the dollar may rise. This is called illiquidity. To summarize; An appreciation of the US money supply often puts pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin and can depress their prices. There are also important historical notes above the chart The white trend line is important . Because every time it comes here, we see that it experiences strong price movements with important news. Therefore, it may be necessary to follow the agenda closely when it comes to this trend line again.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by ugurtash
47k Coming for Bitcoin?$Bitcoin #CME 1D chart; The gap formed by the opening last week has not yet been filled. I think the rise will not start before this place is filled. The Bat Harmonic structure, which is also formed in the current structure, points us to $ 47k levels. It is difficult to say anything clear if it will come true. However, we should not forget that this possibility also exists. Bitcoin had received an upward reaction with the support it received with its last visit to the IMB level. However, as can be seen, it has not yet made any contact with the IMB zone at $ 47k levels. It doesn't always touch these areas, of course, but why not:)
CME:BTC1!Short
by ugurtash