AEX: Interesting set-up to cover exposure on European Stocks.I bought puts on the AEX to cover my portfolio exposure on long European stocks.
I advise you to consider allocating between 2%-3% of your portfolio value to options.
Risk management is key to outperforming the market.
Entry Level: 760
Stop Loss set at 805.
Expiry Date: May 19th 2023
First Take Profit at 740. Second Take Profit at 680.
*Important to pay attention to the price action at the level of 740. If it is recovered quickly, it will be bullish.
Consider moving the stop loss closer to the breakeven point if that happens.
I will leave half of the position to collect possible profits if it gets to 680.
Aexshort
NETHERLAND25 bearish scenario:The technical figure Pennant can be found in the major Dutch index AEX (NETHERLAND25) at daily chart. The AEX index, derived from Amsterdam Exchange index, is a stock market index composed of Dutch companies that trade on Euronext Amsterdam, formerly known as the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. Started in 1983, the index is composed of a maximum of 25 of the most frequently traded securities on the exchange. It is one of the main national indices of the stock exchange group Euronext. The Pennant has broken through the support line on 09/11/2021, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 6 days towards 798.47 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 824.63 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
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AEX 2nd crash in progress?After the fake out, the scenario suddenly looks the same as in February and March. Small support lines do not seem to have a grip. And the price is totally separate from the 200, 50, 20, 10 MA. The death cross seems like a matter of time. The question is at what pace will this happen. And when can the price find support to drop even further. (Or am I pessimistic ..?)
High probability set-up for AEX / EOEVery decent pattern showing up. Almost clearing the 5 wave sequence of bigger cycle 1. Next is a three wave correction up to around 542ish before we have our money wave down which offers a great opportunity for early retirement.
Disclosure: I am short on AEX with put options.
AEX Is Inside a Rising Wedge, After Struggling at the 0.500 Fib Let's look at the Dutch AEX index. The prices seem to not have recovered as much as the american stock markets, giving us more opportunity to trade with higher percentage gains. However, I am starting this one with my analysis on an upcoming short trade.
I'm not a huge fan of this inverted fibonacci retracement, but saw it getting very popular on charts recently to model the big Corona drop. If we use this charting method, we do see the price struggled quite a bit to overcome the 0.5 fib level.
After oscillating quite a bit in this rising wedge, we are reaching the point where the price will need to make a decision soon.
A rising wedge is a bearish pattern, so I expect a bearish breakout after reaching still slightly higher. possibly around the 525 level.
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Disclaimer!
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AEX 485-500 Short Opportunity2001:
AEX broke the 4 year positive trendline and from that moment dropped 57% in the following 105 weeks.
After breaking that trendline the price recovered until slightly above the initial break point. From there the real downward rally continued. In hindsight this point of recovery would have been an excellent short opportunity.
2008:
AEX broke the 5 year positive trendline and from that moment dropped 57% in the following 61 weeks.
After breaking that trendline the price recovered until slightly above the initial break point again (just like in 2001). From there the real downward rally continued again (just like in 2001). In hindsight this point of recovery would have been an excellent short opportunity again (just like in 2001).
2020:
AEX broke the 11 year positive trendline, a similar thing that happened in 2001 and 2008.
The price dropped sharply but is now recovering slightly. If the price recovers the next few weeks to 485-500 this would give a similar short opportunity as we have seen in 2001 and 2008.
Let me know your thoughts :)
PS: a more or less similar opportunity can be spotted when looking at S&P500 and DJ30.
UPDATE: #AEX - "Financial recession is a fact!"UPDATE: #AEX - "Financial recession is a fact! Depression is coming!"
Feb 19
UPDATE: #AEX - "Financial markets will goes into years of recession!"
Financial market is going to prepare itself for a long-term downward movement.
Some financial experts will call this an economic depression the coming period!
Mar 02
Trade active: #IEX #AEX #coronavirus is being misused by the financial market to justify correction that has long been established! It will take approximately 10 years for the financial market reach the bottom.
Warning! AEX shows topping formation Hi everyone,
Today I want to warn you that the AEX-index shows double top formation.
At first, AEX looked quite strong: breaking out of the rising wedge, but now it broke back into the wedge and formed a bearish formation.
Trade safe and take some profits I would say.
AEX SHORT Based on Major Resistance.AEX SHORT Based on Major Resistance. Last time it broke the Major Resistance (RED) was back in `07. Since then it dropped and had a slow but steady climb back up. If the Major Resistance (RED) gets broken in the next week, expect false breakout and short ones under 576.65 again. Aim for the 1st Target (ORANGE), Support Level at 565.18. Hereafter, continuing down towards 2nd Target (YELLOW). Expect heavy Support here based on multiple hits as Support turned Resistance dating back to Jan `18.
Adyen - ShortAdyen lost a huge customer, Uber. Uber will handle payments itself and has received a license from De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) for handling all electronic payments.
I think Adyen has gone too far and is ready for a huge correction.
First price target: € 550
Second price target: € 400 - € 470
Death CrossThe death cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses over a major long-term moving average to the downside and is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive bear turn in a market.
The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major selloff.
The death cross appears on a chart when a stock’s short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average.
The death cross indicator has proven to be a reliable predictor of some of the most severe bear markets of the past century: 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008
As we can see it occured in 2008 aswell and the chart and other indicators (RSI and stoch RSI, but also ichimoku cloud and few others) are almost indenticial to when the crash in 2008 happened.
The AEX will take a big hit and may fall to 0.786 fib. level and perhaps lower.
AEX Short IdeaThe AEX is starting to form a pattern I recognize as the Rising Wedge pattern.
This could be an interesting short-term short. Wait till the yellow line has been broken before entering the short.
target price would be either 534, caused by the strong daily support (red horizontal line) Or it would be 525 creating a new daily support line.