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Google - A Manipulation Dump and an Antitrust Exit PumpIf you have a taste for anything like freedom of speech, neither Google nor YouTube are companies you will like. This thing started as a search engine that actually had the motto "Don't Be Evil" before it was corrupted by the Chinese Communist Party when "very smart people" wanted to get it into China. You see, doing business with "China" right now always means licking the boots of the "Chinese Communist Party." This means you have to toe the Party Line, and that means topics like the June 4 Tiananmen Square Massacre and the persecution against Falun Gong, and Hong Kong democracy have to be suppressed in accordance with whatever the regime says during the previous, current, and future 2 hour periods of each and every day. It was then that Google developed a taste for its own form of shadowbanning and thought itself smart to roll out the CCP's ethos into its worldwide business model. When you search for content you get curated whatever gibberished and extreme leftist-establishment stuff it thinks it can give you to either attempt to nudge your opinion and values (DONALD TRUMP BAD!), or to just cover up the truth (try finding an update on the pandemic situation in China that isn't 2 weeks old). As scary as all of that is, more terrifying is the way that Google is able to control the editorial direction of every single website on the planet, especially news media, by strictly controlling the web ads market, which it has controlled 90% of for many years. Don't want to follow the Party's edicts on stuff like the Marxist revolutionary group Black Lives Matter destroying cities? Don't want to promote masking, social distancing, and mandatory vaccination during a "pandemic"? Then they take your site's ad revenue away, for real. Hint: there aren't many ways to make money with a website whose product is free words ("news") besides advertisements. On Jan. 24 the US Department of Justice finally launched an antitrust suit against Google , seeking to financially penalize and force Google to divest its share of the markets. What's scary about this for investors is that Google inked $209 billion in revenue from web ads in 2021. According to Q3 Financials, ~$167 billion of its $207 billion in revenue for the 9 months ending in September 2022 came from web advertisements. This part of its business is pretty much what Google actually is. The search engine is really just there to dominate the Internet for the purposes of keeping the ad revenue train clutched in their own claws. And curiously, when the DOJ made the suit's announcement, Google's share price only fell $6, and over the course of two days, before rebounding in the big tech short squeeze. This is kind of a big deal because Google losing its web ad business means Google goes out of business, and US Government antitrust lawsuits aren't this kind of thing that they drop one day or that the courts or a jury will side against the administration on. Google's Q4/FY22 earnings is Feb. 2 postmarket. This timing is especially significant considering that the FOMC rate hike is Feb. 1. The question when facing a strange price action situation underwritten by big fundamental changes with multiple culminating timing catalysts is always: Is the stock going to go up or is it going to go down? The thing about Google's monthly bars is there's a very small gap at $81.05, which was conveniently evaded in the October dump and kept off during the Nov-December market retrace. The clearest view of overall price action is on the weekly candles: My thesis is that Google will have a terrible earnings call, regardless of whatever data it puts out, because of the pending lawsuit. I suspect markets will bear trap with FOMC, regardless of the fundamentals. All of these come together to make me believe that February prints $79-$81. Makes for a nice 25% short. But when this arrives, I believe Google and the Nasdaq in general will actually turn around and really trend hard upwards, regardless of the fundamentals. This makes for a nice 29.5% long if Google really only retraces into the $95 gap, and a 50%+ long if she goes into the $81 range. I believe the reason a tech pump will happen is because the sector attracts the biggest suckers (retail, Robinhood, Reddit, Cathy Woods, Jim Cramer) and Wall Street will be using them to empty their bags. Citadel and JPM and friends always buy low and sell high. They don't buy high and sell low. That's what you do. If banks and funds did that, they'd be broke like you are, and we'd have Bear Sterns every month. Once big tech starts to trend upwards, you have to be careful. The market will more or less do what Tesla did the last two weeks and just go uppy as weekly puts expire worthless. And there will be no real sign of anything fundamental that should stop the train. Everyone will flip bullish for one reason or another (mah 200 DMA, meh trendlines, moh 76.321847234% Fibonacci) and it'll seem like it's time to get back to the good old days of 2021. But it's not 2021. It's 2023, and everything is broken. Summer is going to be harsh, and Autumn will scare you. And then the Chinese Communist Party will be destroyed by Wuhan Pneumonia seemingly overnight, and all the plans will be interrupted. My advice to traders is to just risk a lot less and try to keep your risk within your winnings as much as possible. Also, if you really do see a black swan with China that crashes markets, don't buy that dip. Not even a scalp. It won't be like COVID hysteria was with 1,000 point up and down swings on the Dow this time. Everything will just gap down and stay down. Liquidity will be a precious commodity. One thing I've learned is that people never believe in what they think can't happen until it's unfolding in front of their face. Then they come back and are like "Wow it really did happen!" Even I am subject to that flaw, because the length of time things take to unfold makes actually believing you are right very, very difficult. That being said, I believe that we're looking at overall feverish bull market hysteria heading into May. But what happens starting in May and heading into July is very likely going to change everyone's lives forever and ever.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by LordWrymouth
6
Google -> The Stock Is BackHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis . On the weekly timeframe you can see that Google stock has been trading in a range for quite some time now, you can also see that the upper resistance of this trading range is exactly at $105. You can also see that we are currently again retesting this resistance area, from a weekly perspective the market seems definitely ready for a breakout so I think that this time Google stock will actually break above this key resistance area. On the daily timeframe I am now just waiting for a breakout above this resistance area and if we then get a retest and bullish confirmation, it is quite likely that from there we will then see more continuation towards the upside. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by basictradingtv
34
Elliott Wave View: Alphabet ($GOOGL) May Find Support SoonAlphabet (GOOGL) cycle from 1.6.2023 low ended as a 5 waves impulse with wave ((1)) at $107.85. Pullback in wave ((2)) is in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((1)), wave (A) ended at 100.87 and wave (B) ended at 108.18. Wave (C) is currently ongoing with subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 92.26 and wave 2 rally ended at 97.68. The 30 minutes chart below shows the starting point of wave 2 as the invalidation level. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 96.26 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 97.06. Stock extends lower in wave ((iii)) towards 89.76 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 91.16. Final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 88.58 which completed wave 3. Rally in wave 4 is in progress to correct cycle from 2.17.2023 high as a zigzag structure. Up from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 90.26 and dips in wave ((b)) ended at 89.33. Wave ((c)) higher is expected to reach 91.06 – 92.12 area where wave 4 should end. Afterwards, stock should resume lower in a marginal wave 5 to complete wave (C) and ((2)) before it turns higher. As long as the low on 10.31.2022 low holds at 83.34, the pullback should find support for extension higher or rally in 3 waves.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by Elliottwave-Forecast
2
GOOGL:Fundamental Analysis + Possible Next Target Warren Buffett is an expert at capturing the attention of Wall Street analysts and investors. This could be attributed to the more than 3,800,000% cumulative return he has generated to his company's Class A stock (BRK.A) since taking over as CEO in the 1960s. His stellar investment track record has enabled new and repeat investors to follow him for decades and achieve substantial returns. This is ultimately what makes Berkshire Hathaway's Form 13F filing such a highly anticipated event. Many people who follow Berkshire Hathaway's buying and selling are presumably aware that Apple is the company's largest holding. Apple accounted for 41% of Berkshire's $342 billion in invested assets a week earlier. Apple was also one of three stocks added by Buffett and his investing team during the fourth quarter. Similarly, Amazon has been a Berkshire Hathaway holding for the past four years (since Q1 of 2019). Oracle's prior remarks from Omaha imply that he was not the architect behind the takeover of the world's largest e-commerce company. Rather, one of his investment lieutenants, Todd Combs or Ted Weschler, was responsible for the $1.06 billion holding in Amazon. Buffett was only indirectly familiar with the other three FAANGs - Meta, Netflix, and Alphabet - before Berkshire Hathaway and New England Asset Management released its current 13F reports. The situation has now altered. In the fourth quarter, New England Asset Management purchased 17,100 Alphabet shares, primarily Class A shares (GOOGL). The straightforward answer to the question "Why Alphabet?" is based on three factors: market share, cash flow, and valuation. Let us begin with the reality that Alphabet has a complete monopoly on Internet search. Since December 2018, Google has accounted for at least 91% of global search share, according to GlobalStats. Although ad spending cycles, Google's almost 90 percentage point dominance over its nearest competitor provides it unparalleled pricing power when working with advertisers. Given how the US and worldwide economies have developed over time, Alphabet, fuelled by advertising, is the clear winner. Second, Alphabet is a money generator, allowing it to actively reinvest in a wide range of high-growth activities. The corporation generated $91.5 billion in operating cash flow in 2022. This massive cash flow allows the corporation to expand the scope of its Google Cloud infrastructure service, which has taken almost 10% of the world's cloud infrastructure market, according to a recent Canalys analysis. Furthermore, Google's extraordinary cash flow, along with $99 billion in net cash, cash equivalents, and marketable Alphabet securities, allows the corporation to reinvest in the streaming channel YouTube, which is the world's second most visited social site. Alphabet is currently experimenting with new ways to monetize short videos known as YouTube Shorts. Every day, more than 50 billion "shorts" are viewed! Third, Alphabet has historically been cheap in terms of both future revenue potential and cash flow. Despite a five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 25.4, the company is now valued at 15.5 times Wall Street's predicted earnings for next year. Furthermore, Alphabet has averaged 18.6 times year-end cash flow over the last five years. Investors may buy Google shares right now for just 6.5 times the company's estimated cash flow in 2026, according to Wall Street's most forward-looking projection. In other words, Alphabet satisfies all of Buffett's investment criteria.
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by FOREXN1
5
Alphabet fakeout after fear of AI update target $90 W Formation formed on Alphabet which then had a major fakeout There was a test of the 200MA which Failed to break above and dropped. Target $90 With Google and Alphabet trying to combat with the new challenge of creating a better CHAT GPT, it seems like the first version has failed. There were many errors and false answers. They also called the Ex CEOS and management to try and create similar versions through BING and BARD. This caused fear with investors and lead to a $100 billion drop in market value. Overall I think Google will find a way to replace Chat GPT or integrate the technology eventually. These are short term blips before the upside. Right now we can remain bearish as the charts don't lie, but the price will need to drop below $90 in order to have a new analysis for downside. I'll keep you updated as always.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by Timonrosso
AI: Google challenges Microsoft and launches BardInvestment confirms how the Silicon Valley giants are ready to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology. Google (NASDAQ:{{6369|GOOGL}}) is challenging Microsoft (NASDAQ:{{252|MSFT}}) and launching Bard, the rival to ChatGPT, the OpenAI application on which the Redmond giant has bet billions of dollars. The introduction of Bard, the name seems to evoke William Shakespeare, the Bard par excellence of Anglo-Saxon culture, confirms how the race for artificial intelligence is accelerating, with Silicon Valley giants poised to do battle over what is believed to be the new frontier of technology. In recent days Mountain View had announced a $300 million investment in the start-up Anthropic, an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems. And now it is pushing further ahead with the introduction of Bard, which will initially be available for testing to trusted testers and then later be introduced to the general public, similar to how OpenAI did with ChatGPT. "Secure, quality responses" - The testers have been selected, they are a geographically diverse group that will help Google improve and understand users' use of artificial intelligence. "We will combine external feedback with our internal testing to make sure that Bard's responses are quality, secure, and grounded in the real world," explained Mountain View CEO Sundar Pichai, stressing that the testing phase will help Google "continue to learn and improve Bard's quality and speed." Bard aims to generate detailed answers to simple questions. Its operation is based on LaMDA, the Language Model for Dialogue Applications that made headlines last year for being called "sentient" by one of Google's engineers. ChatGPT's success - Microsoft has invested billions of dollars in OpenAI, the company behind the popular ChatGPT and believed to be one of the world's top three labs for artificial intelligence. OpenAI has recently become a household name for millions of people thanks to the success of ChatGPT, which, since its introduction in November, has seen a boom in users and opened a heated debate about the potential and application of artificial intelligence, forcing schools and universities, among others, to begin rethinking their teaching models. ChatGPT is indeed able to create text like a human being, using clear, defined prose and appropriate punctuation. For Microsoft therefore a huge chance to gain ground in the face of fierce rivals who, however, do not want to fall behind. As demonstrated by Google's Bard and Mark Zuckerberg's commitment to make meta one of the leaders in artificial intelligence.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by cryptohubble
6
Nasdaq's journey post breakout/ rates to look out for 06.02.20232 possible scenarios: 1) Price continues to charge forward post big "falling wedge" pattern breakout up, targeting 15,300 as breakout target (equal distance of wedge width measured from breakout) with 12,800 "rising wedge" resistance broken this scenario will be confirmed. 13,600 is in the way and could be correction back down 12,200-300 once reached, or can charge above to 15,300 straight. 2) Price drops from "rising wedge" resistance at 12,800 and breaks below 12,200 "rising wedge" support, which could target lower to 10,800 which would be retest of "falling wedge" breakout and target of "rising wedge" breakout combined. A lot depends on FED policy and market sentiment, suggestable action would be once "rising wedge" (12,800 to 12,200) breaks down or up, indicating a much more clear direction. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Do your own research and always trade with caution. I am here for any questions or comments, would appreciate any interaction A LOT! -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHSELFINVEST:USTECH100CFDLong
by Exactus
GOOGLE (GOOG) Trade UpdatesGoogle (GOOG) Trade Updates I entered November (see previous post) near the bottom with a price of 85.87, a profit of 13% so far, but the road is still long. The volume knot near POC held up well, but the upper areas are very well covered. Here too, as for AMZN, my target is the historical highs, even if for the medium term, the target is $115-120. To keep an eye on earnings, Google is a company that I personally consider on a par with Apple, despite having a lower market cap, but has recently had some internal problems, which have seen significant layoffs in the staff. This could also be positive in terms of the budget, you always have to look at the bigger picture. Artificial intelligence, automatic driving and augmented reality remain the sectors to be monitored, clearly the core business remains the search engine and the revenues from the ads generated, also pay attention to the technology used in the Stadia project; it could be resold under license to other giants of the video game industry. In conclusion, very negative earnings could push the price towards the $70 level, where I would increase my position. Targets: short: get out now medium: 115-120$ long : $151 Happy trading Lazy Bull
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by LazyBull5
Google Analysis 22.01.2023Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational analysis. I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities. If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below. I will personally reply to every single comment! If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
NASDAQ:GOOG
by basictradingtv
34
Cloud computing: what are the big players telling us?Each earnings season, we become accustomed to certain patterns. One pattern involves the biggest tech companies reporting earnings before many other smaller and medium sized firms. In what we know is a very difficult economic backdrop, it’s important to look for signals that some of the world’s largest companies are giving us. Additionally, since Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud are three of the world’s largest providers of public cloud infrastructure, it’s possible that these reports contain details about how companies are spending more broadly on technology. Combining the annual revenues of just these businesses (recognising that they are each part of larger companies) we see spending on cloud infrastructure annually in the hundreds of billions of dollars. We believe that there is a difference between these three large public-cloud infrastructure providers and the much greater number of far smaller Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) providers. These three firms, for instance, are a major part of most market capitalisation-weighted benchmark indices. They are at a point in their life cycles where they should exhibit sensitivity to broad, global economic activity and growth expectations. What can they tell us? The most important thing that we think the results of the big public-cloud providers can tell us regards trends in broad-based information technology spending on cloud computing. Eventually, the enterprise market will have ‘moved to the cloud’ and the growth rates of these large players should drop significantly. We are not yet there so, in this type of environment, we really want to see the resilience of cloud spending in the face of a tougher economic backdrop. There haven’t been that many economic slowdowns since the genesis of the cloud business model, and there certainly haven’t been sustained periods of inflation or central bank tightening. What don’t they tell us? The smaller SaaS providers tend to help their customers with much more specific business initiatives. It may be accounting, compliance, cybersecurity, data analysis…the list is becoming endless. These companies are more idiosyncratic, in that their individual results do not translate to broad trends as clearly as the biggest company results would. However, we might see strong spending in cybersecurity, for example, and this may not be as clearly visible in the results of the biggest companies. Our initial sense is that it is important to remember that, in many cases, businesses transitioning to the cloud is done to create efficiency and to accomplish more while investing either less time, less money or less of both. We think that this overall trend will continue, but it likely won’t continue at the rates seen in recent years if the global backdrop is characterised by a deteriorating economic picture. It’s also the case that many cloud-focused companies have seen their share prices drop significantly in 2022. This doesn’t mean that all the risk is ‘priced-in’ by any means, but it does tell us that the valuation risk of the space is lower relative to the much higher valuations seen towards the end of 2021. Microsoft Microsoft is a leader in the cloud space, and it’s important to note that the Azure infrastructure platform is one piece of the overall ‘Intelligent Cloud’ effort. Most attention goes to the year-over-year revenue growth rates, so it is instructive to first ground any discussion in some of the recent quarterly figures, which are shown in year-over-year terms for Azure specifically below1: 30 September 2021: 50% 31 December 2021: 46% 31 March 2022: 46% 30 June 2022: 40% 30 September 2022: 35% It also helps to look at the overall revenue base to help ground any further thoughts about reasonable growth. While the quarterly results do look at more than the pure Azure revenues, broadening the picture to ‘Intelligent Cloud’, we see that Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud revenue was $16.91 billion as of 30 September 2021, and that this figure increased to $20.33 billion as of 30 September 2022. This is a quarterly figure, and it is beginning to be quite large, so part of the growth rate deceleration that we may be seeing could be attributed to the size and scale of these figures. Analysts are seeing Azure customers very focused on optimising their cloud workloads, which helps them to save money, and it’s also the case that there is evidence that customers are pausing on new workloads. It is reasonable to think that, in an environment of slower economic growth, consumption-based business models like public cloud infrastructure may indicate shifts in customer-behaviour toward more essential workloads2. Amazon Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the leading public cloud infrastructure platform based on market share, often cited as having a figure around 40% of the total. If we consider the year-over-year growth rates from recent quarters3: 30 September 2021: 39%. 31 December 2021: 40% 31 March 2022: 37% 30 June 2022: 33% 30 September 2022: 27% Similar to the case of Microsoft, we are seeing decelerating growth rates. However, if we look to 30 September 2021, the trailing 12-month net sales for AWS was at $57.2 billion, and this same figure as of 30 September 2022 is $76.5 billion. These are getting to be quite large numbers. Also similar to the story with Microsoft, enterprise cloud customers are looking to reduce costs within the AWS ecosystem. Analysts are continuing to note the long-term potential and how this differs from the situation within the shorter-term macroeconomic backdrop4. Alphabet—Google Cloud in focus Google Cloud, within Alphabet, does trail both Microsoft Azure and AWS in terms of market share, but Alphabet as a whole runs a formidable, cash-rich business, so they have been known to make large, splashy deals to gain high-profile cloud customers. If we note the year-over-year growth figures5: 30 September 2021: 45% 31 December 2021: 45% 31 March 2022: 44% 30 June 2022: 36% 30 September 2022: 38% The growth rates are similar to what we noted with Microsoft Azure and AWS, but the dollar figures are much lower. As of 30 September 2021, the quarterly revenue from Google Cloud was reported at $4.99 billion, and then as of 30 September 2022, this figure had grown to $6.87 billion. It is notable that, while Microsoft and Amazon saw quarter-to-quarter decelerations in growth rates, Google Cloud is cited as a bright spot of growth acceleration in Alphabet’s results. However, we note that Alphabet’s core business was certainly not immune to deteriorating economic conditions, and that the revenue figures are growing from a smaller overall base. Conclusion: the economy matters but this is not the year 2000 The primary conclusion that we reach at this point is that economic conditions do matter for cloud computing companies. We have already seen their share price performance for 2022; it is crystal clear that market participants have re-assessed the appropriate valuation multiples for these firms considering higher inflation and higher interest rates. We will be watching closely to see how much revenue growth these companies can maintain as they continue to report earnings for the period ended 30 September 2022. The biggest companies, so far, have reported a range of 27% to 38%. It clearly isn’t the euphoric environment of 2020 any longer, but we don’t think it appropriate to say a ‘tech bubble is bursting’ either. Sources 1 Source: Microsoft’s First Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Results, 25 October 2022. Revenue figures presented in the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) format. 2 Source: Sills, Brad & Adam Bergere. “Expected Azure decel likely temporary, cyclical; model largely derisked.” Bank of America Securities. 26 October 2022. 3 Sources: Amazon’s Quarterly Earnings Conference Call Slides for the specific periods ended: 30 September 2022, 30 June 2022, 31 March 2022, 31 December 2021 and 30 September 2021. The revenue growth figure is taken as the year-over-year growth without foreign exchange adjustment. 4 Source: Post, Justin & Michael McGovern. “Expecting Less this Holiday.” Bank of America Securities. 28 October 2022. 5 Sources: Alphabet’s Quarterly Earnings Announcements which specify the revenues from different business units on a quarterly basis for the periods ended: 30 September 2022, 30 June 2022, 31 March 2022, 31 December 2021 and 30 September 2021. Percentage growth is calculated directly from the figures that Alphabet reports for Google Cloud, all in USD terms.
NASDAQ:EMCLOUD
by aneekaguptaWTE
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Technical ReboundIf you haven`t sold GOOG at the top, when Ark Invest did: Then you should know that a technical rebound refers to a recovery from a prior period of losses when technical signals indicate that the move was oversold. In this case, the Relative Strength Index momentum indicator of GOOG is at 22.42. Even though i am overall bearish on the economy, buying a strong financial instrument when the RSI is below 30, would make a case for a potential short term reversal. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by TopgOptions
4
Google | Looking For The Next TargetAlphabet Inc (Google) peaked in November 2021... With one last hurray in January 2022 that wicked higher. The All Time High came in January this year but only by a wick as the weekly candle closed much lower. We have a year long downtrend already. Time does fly by when one is not paying attention. We opened this chart out of curiosity. Since the Nasdaq100 (NDX) index is set to crash, all these companies are likely to follow and the charts are matching this statement. The good thing is that a bottom is getting closer and closer, maybe just another 6/7 months for these stocks but still too early for us to say. The main support we are looking at is sitting at 72.38. 89.42 is the immediate support. We see rejection after rejection each time Google closes above EMA10 and tries to move up. No relief rally here, not even when the SPX and DJI had a relief for several months. Will there be a relief now for Google? Not likely, don't think so. These stocks/companies have been growing for decades, the market moves in cycles. We are bound to see additional bleeding before a return to sustained growth. Around 68 is our mid-term target. For the bottom... We will have another look at this chart in 3 months. Namaste.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by MasterAnanda
1
GOOG: Inverted Cup with Handle Google is playing out an inverted cup and handle with a conservative price target of $73-76. The price target should be lower, around $71.50, but I shaved a little off because there is some old support from the Jul-Oct 2020 period that should buoy the price, at least for a bit. The daily EMA ribbon flipped bearish in April and since then a precipitous 38% downslide has ensued, the most recent retest of the daily EMA on Oct 24th yielded another crushing rejection. Price should be ready to run again to the downside as it recently slipped through a support/resistance line unrelated to the pattern around $89.40 and has since completed a pullback and been rejected.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by TheProfligate
1