Analyzing 8 Currencies: A Weekly Forex Breakdown & InsightIn my trading strategy, I analyze eight custom currency indexes on the 30-minute time frame to capture short-term market movements. I utilize pivot points, Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and various technical analysis techniques to develop a bullish or bearish bias for each currency. By examining the interactions between these indicators and price action, I can better understand the direction of the market and identify high-probability trading opportunities that align with the prevailing market sentiment. By focusing on the strength and weakness of major currencies and aligning our trades with the overall market mood, we aim to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of forex.
Here's how I use these charts!
Custom Currency Indexes: I've created custom indexes for eight major currencies: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, and CAD. These indexes help me monitor the strength and weakness of each currency relative to the others, giving me valuable insights for my forex trades.
Market Sentiment: I also pay attention to the overall market sentiment, which is generally considered "risk-on" when AUD, NZD, and CAD are showing strength, and USD, CHF, and JPY are showing weakness. This risk-on mood indicates that traders are more willing to take on risk, favoring higher-yielding currencies like the AUD, NZD, and CAD.
Analyzing Currency Pairs: When looking for trading opportunities, I analyze both the relevant currency indexes and the market sentiment. For example, if I'm considering a trade on the AUD/USD pair, I would look at the AUD index and the USD index to gauge the strength and weakness of the currencies.
Matching Up with Market Sentiment: If the strength and weakness of the currencies in the pair align with the overall market sentiment (e.g., AUD is strong and USD is weak in a risk-on environment), it may be a good time to take the trade. If the currency strength and weakness do not match up with the market sentiment, it might be better to stay out of the trade.
In summary, my forex trading strategy combines custom currency indexes, market sentiment, and analysis of individual currency pairs. By considering these factors together, I aim to identify favorable trading opportunities in line with the prevailing market conditions.
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My current bias for each currency on the 30 minute chart. May 7, 2023
USD: The USD is clearly experiencing a downward trend. Recently, there has been a significant refusal to breach a resistance zone, causing it to fall below all of my EMAs. I believe the downward momentum is likely to persist.
GBP: Recently, the pound has gained considerable upward momentum and appears to be preparing for a sustained movement in the same direction.
EUR: The EUR has lately broken through long-term trends and support levels, indicating a potential continued decline. While I maintain a bearish outlook, I am closely monitoring price movements. I have observed an RSI divergence on the 30-minute chart, which I consider a warning to be wary of additional declines until a substantial pullback occurs.
JPY: Recently, the JPY has broken a short-term trend and a head & shoulders pattern. The price is now below all of my EMAs and is moving in accordance with the longer-term downward trend.
CHF: The CHF has recently broken a long-term trend and support level. Currently, the price is retesting the previous support as potential resistance. Based on this price behavior, I anticipate further declines.
AUD: While the AUD is experiencing an upward trend, it is encountering notable resistance levels that could exert downward pressure. Nevertheless, I will maintain my bullish stance until evidence suggests otherwise.
NZD: The NZD has recently displayed strong bullish momentum, and my inclination is towards an upward direction. However, exercise caution as the price action has formed a bullish continuation pattern, but there are indications of decelerating momentum, suggesting a possible pullback in the near future.
CAD: The CAD has experienced a substantial upward surge lately. Although I am currently bullish, the price appears somewhat extended and is approaching a recent high, which could lead to some selling pressure.
Aud-nzd
AUDNZD Triangle close to breaking outThe AUDNZD pair has hit our previous target (see chart below) and is currently on a Triangle pattern:
The break-out of this pattern will dictate the next trend. Right now the price is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) so currently we have to give a slight edge to the bearish break-out. In that case, our target will be 1.04700 (December 16 2022 Low). If the price closes above the Triangle (Lower Highs trend-line), we will buy the break-out, target 1.10000 (bottom of Pivot Zone) and then short from the top for the long-term.
P.S. The RSI's Rectangle can be of additional help for buying and selling.
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AUDNZD | Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar STRONG BUYDownside risks for NZD remain, though, given asymmetric risks to RBNZ pricing. The persistent curve inversion suggests markets are pricing in a risk of a policy mistake. We are watching the Feb RBNZ meeting closely, particularly for guidance on the balance sheet,"
"We expect AU D to outperform NZD (targeting 1.08) given risks that swap traders reduce expectations for RBNZ policy (current implying a likelihood of 6 hikes in the next 12 months),"
AN coming to a supporton the higher timeframe, price might get supported..might not..lets see.rate news next week for AUD.
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
AN trending up nicely...As mentioned a break up on this pair would see more upside...lets trade with this likely new trend upwards. :)
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Hello there!
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁
Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
AUDNZD Outlook 21 April 2023The AUDNZD traded higher to the top of the bullish channel at the 1.0920 price level, due to the overnight strength of the AUDUSD.
As the AUDUSD retraces, this could lead to a brief reversal on the AUDNZD. Look for the AUDNZD to retest the 1.0890 price level before a continuation to the upside.
However, if the price breaks below the 1.0890 support level, the AUDNZD could continue lower to the lower bound of the channel at the 1.0860 price level.
BEARISH SETUP ON AUDNZDHey Traders,
The AUDNZD i s currently in a pickle, the price could do a fakey (grappling liquidity
from buyer's entry and sellers stop loss before making a a full bearish continuation.
Or,
It could start a new bullish momentum to retesting the Daily supply area.
Hers is the pair you can anticipate for then wait for proper entry.
Good luck.
AUDNZD Outlook 20 April 2023The AUDNZD continues to trade higher as price respects the uptrend and maintains within the upward channel.
Most recently the price bounced strongly from the horizontal support level of 1.0810 and the bottom of the channel to trade up to the 1.0890 resistance level following the release of the NZ CPI q/q data at 1.2% (Forecast: 1.5% Previous 1.4%).
A slowdown in inflation growth could reduce the need for the RBNZ to continue with further interest rate hikes.
While a continuation of the uptrend is expected, watchout of a possible brief retracement at the current resistance level or at the top of the channel. Continuation of the upside is likely to require further weakness on the NZDUSD.
Ideally, look for buying opportunities after a retracement on the AUDNZD.
AUDNZD Outlook 17 April 2023Toward the end of last week, the AUDNZD retraced from the resistance level of 1.0810 to trade down to the 1.0740 price level which coincided with the upward trend line and was within the area of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
The price bounced from the trendline and has now broken above the resistance level as the AUDUSD and NZDUSD weakened on Friday.
While the price could consolidate or retrace briefly, further downside on the NZDUSD could see the AUDNZD continue to trade higher to retest the next resistance level of 1.0890.
AN potential break up or reversal
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If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
AN more on the downside to come...As previously mentioned it is more on the downside..bias to short moving forwards...
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Hello there!
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
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Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
AUDNZD: Rejected on the long term Pivot. Bearish.The AUDNZD pair is technically bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 42.033, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 29.502), trading under the P1 Zone, which has been in place since 2021. It is under both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 and it targeting the HL trendline (TP = 1.05300). If the dashed LH trendline breaks, we will buy aiming at R1 (TP = 1.10800).
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Generally down,bias to short ANAN will be generally down trend on daily.
h4 bouncing in range, either we will see a breakdown from 1.07 or returning back to range.see what fits your strategy and trade accordingly...
Hello there!
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁
Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Levels discussed during the webinar 21st March21st March (might not be alot of trading opportunities)
DXY consolidating possible breakout down to 103
NZDUSD: too late, no trade
AUDUSD: buy above 0.67 SL 20 TP 20 (small trade)
USDJPY: break 131.50 SL 40 TP 80
GBPUSD: retrace down to 1.22
EURUSD: likely to up to 1.0760 but not great RR trade
USDCHF: sell below 0.9280 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: watch video for the setup with upside & downside potential
GBPJPY: buy from bounce of support 159.00 SL 50 TP 300
GOLD: retest of support, look for buying potential
AUDNZD | could be a good trade towards the downsideHey Traders!
Most timeframes very bearish, we are on a strong support level on the monthly, but we don't know when that will engage or if it will find buying pressure, weekly timeframe broke 200 moving averages does suggest a bearish trend continuation, all other price action also looks bearish.
AUDNZD BUY Short Term Hi All,
we are looking at opening a short term buy on this pair as we are anticipating the pair to create a HH on the W1 timeframe. narrowing it down to 4H we can see that price is now forming and inverse H&S, where we are buying the head.
The short term plan is to buy till Aug at least at reasonable price.
Please ensure you look at for trade update when you following this analysis.
Entry , Sl and TP marked.
Many thanks.
AUDNZDHi;
AUDNZD
In the daily time frame, the movement is quite clear. Selling pressure can also be detected in lower time frames, and according to the rapid downward wave that has been created recently, the probability of exiting this correction, which is similar to the flag pattern, will be very high.
Watching AUD/NZD for Clear MovementsWe may witness sideways movements of the AUD/NZD pair within the range of 1.08962 and 1.08584, and it could potentially form a reversal pattern such as double tops or head and shoulders before continuing downward towards the level of 1.0800. If the level of 1.08500 is breached downwards, the price could reach there quickly. Conversely, if the price breaks above the level of 1.09070, it could completely reverse upwards. We will monitor the behavior of this pair this week and try to benefit from any clear movement.
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AUDNZDHi
AUDNZD has been examined in different dimensions:
1- Strong supply and demand levels that I identify with my own indicator and system.
2- The structure of recently formed waves
3- Current market momentum
4- The structure of classical and price patterns
In this idea, I identified the direction of the market in different ways and in the second step, I analyzed the potential of continuation or reversal. Usually, paying attention to the trend and strength of the trend can greatly increase the accuracy of the analysis.
In general, I tried to describe the continuation of the movement in the simplest possible way in the diagram.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is a personal opinion and you are responsible for any trading decisions.
AUDUSD Short Term Sell Forecast
Hello Traders:
First forecast/analysis to share after the long break.
What I see here is a possible short term bearish move from AUDUSD.
We can see on the higher time frame, price has reversed from a double tops price action.
An ascending channel structure, as we know is reversal in nature, hence after the structure completes,
we see price begin to impulsely move down.
This is a good indication for further downside opportunity.
As usual, dont rush to enter, watch for confirmation for the continuation correction to form and complete, before entering the market.
thank you
Jojo